AU - Kembla Grange - Race 6

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 7

27.3K

VIEW

Verdict

Deep form race. Going with the promising TEQUISODA (8) who knuckled down strongly to get up for third when resuming over 7f here last start. Improved second-up last prep to win his maiden at Hawkesbury. Will relish getting out to 1m for the first time so more is to come. MIGNONETTE (9) has found the line well to finish just behind the placegetters in his two runs this time in work, both over much shorter journeys. Goes back from a wide draw but will be strong at the end of the mile. TOM CRUISING (3) has been unwanted in betting at his last two starts but won them both, the latest in a similar race to this 25 days ago. The handicapper may have caught up with him now but another big run will not surprise. OFF THE SCALE (7) had his chance but his condition gave out first-up over this trip at Newcastle. Drops 3kgs after the claim and with added fitness should give a good account. OTONO (5) was beaten less than a length in a BM68 here two back which is good form.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
8	Second run back. First-up after four months 3rd of 9 at this track Prov Bm64 (62) on November 15 over 7f, 2 len behind Nantucket Island carrying 129lbs at $3.20. Previously second-up favourite, came from midfield and won by 0.7 len at Hawkesbury Mdn-Sw July 20 over 7 ½f in soft going defeating The Cristal carrying 125lbs at $1.24. We might see the best of this colt now as he gets to the mile for the first time. 1st Pick 8 Tequisoda Jockey: Christian Reith Trainer: Brad Widdup J: Christian Reith T: Brad Widdup	149	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Second run back. First-up after four months 3rd of 9 at this track Prov Bm64 (62) on November 15 over 7f, 2 len behind Nantucket Island carrying 129lbs at $3.20. Previously second-up favourite, came from midfield and won by 0.7 len at Hawkesbury Mdn-Sw July 20 over 7 ½f in soft going defeating The Cristal carrying 125lbs at $1.24. We might see the best of this colt now as he gets to the mile for the first time.
9	Third-up today. Resuming 6th of 8 at this track Bm64 on October 25 over 6f, 2.75 len behind Madrina with 125lbs at $12. Last start from last on the turn second last of 7 at Wyong F&M Cl1 on November 16 over 6 ¾f, 2.5 len behind Tulipwood with 130lbs at $3.40. Racing well. Strips fitter and good enough to test this field. 2nd Pick 9 Mignonette Jockey: Jeff Penza Trainer: Chris Waller J: Jeff Penza T: Chris Waller	135	-	-	-	8%	13/1
Analysis Third-up today. Resuming 6th of 8 at this track Bm64 on October 25 over 6f, 2.75 len behind Madrina with 125lbs at $12. Last start from last on the turn second last of 7 at Wyong F&M Cl1 on November 16 over 6 ¾f, 2.5 len behind Tulipwood with 130lbs at $3.40. Racing well. Strips fitter and good enough to test this field.
3	Chasing a hat-trick. Most recently settled well back, won by a head at this track Prov Bm64 November 4 over 1m defeating Channelling with 126lbs at $26. The start before that won by 0.8 len at this track Prov Bm64 October 25 over 7 ½f defeating All Machiavellian with 121lbs at $21. No fluke to the last two wins at big odds so he must be inlcuded. 3rd Pick 3 Tom Cruising Jockey: Adrian Layt Trainer: Kerry Parker J: Adrian Layt T: Kerry Parker	98	-	-	-	6%	18/1
Analysis Chasing a hat-trick. Most recently settled well back, won by a head at this track Prov Bm64 November 4 over 1m defeating Channelling with 126lbs at $26. The start before that won by 0.8 len at this track Prov Bm64 October 25 over 7 ½f defeating All Machiavellian with 121lbs at $21. No fluke to the last two wins at big odds so he must be inlcuded.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.

State-Bred

A horse bred in a particular state and thus eligible to race in restricted state-bred races. These can be anything from maiden races to stakes events.

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.