AU - Kembla Grange - Race 1

Thoroughbred

10 Runners

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 7

27.3K

VIEW

Verdict

CAPTIVATING TYCOON (1) settled well off the pace due to an awkward start then really motored in the concluding stages to be beaten just a length on debut over this course and distance a fortnight ago. Only needs to jump cleanly to make his presence felt. FORNELLI (4) copped some interference approaching the corner then did well to hold onto third on debut over 5 ½f at Gosford last start. Can improve sharply off that run and play a significant role here. ONE RUN WON (2) is an All Too Hard three-year-old on debut for Bjorn Baker. Two trials in November resulted in comfortable wins. Half to a Group 3 winner so should have plenty of ability. MRS FLANDERS (7) worked home well and was only a head behind Captivating Tycoon on debut here two weeks ago. Sure to be right in contention with a similar effort today. MONOCRU (6) has only raced once and failed on a wet track at Gosford in June. Betting might be the key.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Was well in the market at debut, 4th of 10 at this track Mid Mdn-Sw on November 15 over 5f, 1.0 len behind Brown Sugar carrying 127lbs at $5. Big chance to take this out if he shows just a little natural improvement. 1st Pick 1 Captivating Tycoon Jockey: Grant Buckley Trainer: Richard & Will Freedman J: Grant Buckley T: Richard & Will Freedman	178	-	-	-	34%	2/1
Analysis Was well in the market at debut, 4th of 10 at this track Mid Mdn-Sw on November 15 over 5f, 1.0 len behind Brown Sugar carrying 127lbs at $5. Big chance to take this out if he shows just a little natural improvement.
4	At debut, 3rd in a small field at Gosford Super Mdn on November 11 over 5 ½f, 2 len behind Jarrito carrying 123lbs at $6. Better for that experience and looks one of the main contenders. 2nd Pick 4 Fornelli Jockey: Keagan Latham Trainer: John O'shea & Tom Charlton J: Keagan Latham T: John O'shea & Tom Charlton	151	-	-	-	31%	9/4
Analysis At debut, 3rd in a small field at Gosford Super Mdn on November 11 over 5 ½f, 2 len behind Jarrito carrying 123lbs at $6. Better for that experience and looks one of the main contenders.
2	Bjorn Baker trained three-year-old gelding lining up for debut. Half-brother by All Too Hard to the Group 3 winner Perfect Thought. Scored in a recent Hawkesbury trial. Good draw will assist chances. Betting the best guide. 3rd Pick 2 One Run Won Jockey: Olivia Chambers Trainer: Bjorn Baker J: Olivia Chambers T: Bjorn Baker	73	-	-	-	29%	5/2
Analysis Bjorn Baker trained three-year-old gelding lining up for debut. Half-brother by All Too Hard to the Group 3 winner Perfect Thought. Scored in a recent Hawkesbury trial. Good draw will assist chances. Betting the best guide.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Firm

A dry turf course, equal to a ‘fast’ dirt track.

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.