AU - Hobart - Race 8

Thoroughbred

9 Runners

5.5f

Benchmark

Turf

(5)

12.4K

VIEW

Verdict

ALPINE THUNDER (1) has won 2/3 this preparation and it was comfortable here last time. Keeps getting better and can go on with the job. WINNING WITNESS (2) tackled better class here and only battled. His form at this level prior reads strongly and he has an inside gate today and 7lbs claim. Drops back to a shorter sprint freshened and is a chance to bounce. WARICA (4) brings a near miss from the synthetic and peaks. Gives away starts but Newitt sticks and should give him every chance. ADACHI (3) resumes and is proven fresh. Has a 4lbs claim and maps well. He will race over further but has won at this trip and has ability.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Last start won by 1.3 len at this track Cl1 January 3 over 5 ½f defeating Private Storm carrying 129lbs at $8.50. Before that raced behind the speed prior to fading 7th of 13 at Launceston Cl1 on December 11 over 6f, 7 len behind Lispector with 130lbs at $21. Excellent prospects. 1st Pick 1 Alpine Thunder Jockey: Mehmet Ulucinar Trainer: Stuart Gandy J: Mehmet Ulucinar T: Stuart Gandy	193	-	-	-	50%	1/1
Analysis Last start won by 1.3 len at this track Cl1 January 3 over 5 ½f defeating Private Storm carrying 129lbs at $8.50. Before that raced behind the speed prior to fading 7th of 13 at Launceston Cl1 on December 11 over 6f, 7 len behind Lispector with 130lbs at $21. Excellent prospects.
2	Useful mare. Comes here off a 35-day let-up. Most recently second last of 8 at this track Bm68 on December 15 over 7f, 4.5 len behind Fast Thinker with 119lbs at $3.60. The race before that won by a head at this track Bm60 November 24 over 7f defeating Rubbleonthedouble carrying 129lbs at $3. Worth another chance. 2nd Pick 2 Winning Witness Jockey: Jackson Radley Trainer: Imogen Miller J: Jackson Radley T: Imogen Miller	111	-	-	-	10%	9/1
Analysis Useful mare. Comes here off a 35-day let-up. Most recently second last of 8 at this track Bm68 on December 15 over 7f, 4.5 len behind Fast Thinker with 119lbs at $3.60. The race before that won by a head at this track Bm60 November 24 over 7f defeating Rubbleonthedouble carrying 129lbs at $3. Worth another chance.
4	Last start 2nd of 8 at Devonport Synthetic Bm60 on January 8 over 5f, long-neck behind Volkanovski with 130lbs at $8. Before that 5th of 8 at Devonport Synthetic Bm76 on December 20 over 5f, 2 len behind Aruma with 112lbs at $41. Among the best chances. 3rd Pick 4 Warica Jockey: Craig Newitt Trainer: John Blacker J: Craig Newitt T: John Blacker	156	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Last start 2nd of 8 at Devonport Synthetic Bm60 on January 8 over 5f, long-neck behind Volkanovski with 130lbs at $8. Before that 5th of 8 at Devonport Synthetic Bm76 on December 20 over 5f, 2 len behind Aruma with 112lbs at $41. Among the best chances.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Starter Race

An allowance race restricted to horses who have started for a certain claiming price recently.

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Firm

A dry turf course, equal to a ‘fast’ dirt track.