AU - Hobart - Race 4

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

5.5f

OPEN

Turf

(5)

46.6K

VIEW

Verdict

MS TASMANIA (1) is a clear top weight but it is earned. Is looking to deliver three wins on the trot and has been freshened. Has won 4/5 and can add to that record. HIGHLAND DUEL (2) was an easy Maiden winner before placing here in a CL1 win heavily bet. Has the first-time blinkers applied and carries 7lbs less at this level. Newitt stays aboard and is likely to skip across and control the race. FIRST LINE (5) deserved her Maiden win here. This is harder but she has good upside and will be around the mark. DYNAMIC WARRIOR (4) won his Maiden by a space at Longford and maps for a soft run. He will keep improving as well.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
1	Third-up today and won third-up in the past. Not raced for 53 days. First-up favourite, ran on from midfield and won by 1.0 len at Launceston Cl3 November 13 over 5f in soft going defeating Eastcoast Miss carrying 121lbs at $2. Second-up favourite, ran on from midfield and won by a nose at Launceston 3yo SWP November 27 over 6f on a soft track defeating Magnaprime with 123lbs at $2.10. Tought to beat. 1st Pick 1 Ms Tasmania Jockey: Troy Baker Trainer: Sigrid Carr J: Troy Baker T: Sigrid Carr	178	-	-	-	50%
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up in the past. Not raced for 53 days. First-up favourite, ran on from midfield and won by 1.0 len at Launceston Cl3 November 13 over 5f in soft going defeating Eastcoast Miss carrying 121lbs at $2. Second-up favourite, ran on from midfield and won by a nose at Launceston 3yo SWP November 27 over 6f on a soft track defeating Magnaprime with 123lbs at $2.10. Tought to beat.
2	At the latest run held ground to the line 3rd of 11 at this track Cl1 on January 3 over 5 ½f, 1.5 len behind Alpine Thunder with 127lbs at $4.60. The race before that favourite, won by 2 len at Launceston Mdn-Sw December 11 over 6f defeating Dynamic Warrior carrying 126lbs at $2.50. Has claims. 2nd Pick 2 Highland Duel Jockey: Craig Newitt Trainer: Leanne Gaffney J: Craig Newitt T: Leanne Gaffney	133	-	-	-	29%
Analysis At the latest run held ground to the line 3rd of 11 at this track Cl1 on January 3 over 5 ½f, 1.5 len behind Alpine Thunder with 127lbs at $4.60. The race before that favourite, won by 2 len at Launceston Mdn-Sw December 11 over 6f defeating Dynamic Warrior carrying 126lbs at $2.50. Has claims.
5	Form hard to fault. Most recently won by a long-neck at this track 3yo Mdn-Sw December 27 over 5 ½f in soft going defeating Snowdonia carrying 121lbs at $4. The race before that raced on the pace when 3rd of 12 at this track Mdn-Sw on November 24 over 6f, slow going 1.0 len behind Alpine Thunder carrying 121lbs at $2.90. Encouraging effort last time. 3rd Pick 5 First Line Jockey: Shane Foley Trainer: John Keys J: Shane Foley T: John Keys	118	-	-	-	25%
Analysis Form hard to fault. Most recently won by a long-neck at this track 3yo Mdn-Sw December 27 over 5 ½f in soft going defeating Snowdonia carrying 121lbs at $4. The race before that raced on the pace when 3rd of 12 at this track Mdn-Sw on November 24 over 6f, slow going 1.0 len behind Alpine Thunder carrying 121lbs at $2.90. Encouraging effort last time.

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