AU - Ascot - Race 7

Thoroughbred

13 Runners

10.4f

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

51.9K

VIEW

Verdict

I LOVE YOUR SMILE (2) was in good form prior to tackling the Listed Kalgoorlie Cup where she was just outclassed. Better suited back to this grade today where she won her two starts prior. Pike rides again this time and she's expected to be storming home late in the race. LOMBADINA (7) finished 0.7L off the winner last start at Ascot and finished behind I Love Your Smile the two prior to that. May need some luck getting off the fence from the inside barrier, but she drops in weight for CJP and has to be included on recent efforts. ANTIQUE STAR (4) finished 0.4L off the winner last start and was narrowly beaten the start prior too. Racing in top order and this looks to set up nicely for her. LYRICAL ANGEL (10) is better than she showed last time out and can bounce back to her best form. RYEWOOD (3) has been going around in good company this time in work. Not to be discounted back in grade.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Last start 8th of 11 at Kalgoorlie in the LR Kalgoorlie Cup on October 4 over 1 7/16m, 8 len behind Sentimental Hero carrying 119lbs at $9. The start before that ran on from midfield and won by a nose at Belmont Park Rtg 63+ September 27 over 1m defeating Lyrical Angel carrying 128lbs at $3.10. Expected more from her at Kalgoorlie but this shapes nicely for her. 1st Pick 2 I Love Your Smile Jockey: William Pike Trainer: Luke Fernie J: William Pike T: Luke Fernie	152	-	-	-	16%	11/2
Analysis Last start 8th of 11 at Kalgoorlie in the LR Kalgoorlie Cup on October 4 over 1 7/16m, 8 len behind Sentimental Hero carrying 119lbs at $9. The start before that ran on from midfield and won by a nose at Belmont Park Rtg 63+ September 27 over 1m defeating Lyrical Angel carrying 128lbs at $3.10. Expected more from her at Kalgoorlie but this shapes nicely for her.
7	Most recently came home strongly from last on the turn, 3rd of 11 at this track Rtg 61+ on October 11 over 1m, 0.7 len behind Emerald Trader carrying 129lbs at $6.50. Before that sat behind the speed prior to fading 7th of 13 at Belmont Park Rtg 63+ on September 27 over 1m, 3.5 len behind I Love Your Smile carrying 128lbs at $4.20. Inching toward another win and appears the main danger. 2nd Pick 7 Lombadina Jockey: Clint Johnston-Porter Trainer: Michael Grantham J: Clint Johnston-Porter T: Michael Grantham	187	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Most recently came home strongly from last on the turn, 3rd of 11 at this track Rtg 61+ on October 11 over 1m, 0.7 len behind Emerald Trader carrying 129lbs at $6.50. Before that sat behind the speed prior to fading 7th of 13 at Belmont Park Rtg 63+ on September 27 over 1m, 3.5 len behind I Love Your Smile carrying 128lbs at $4.20. Inching toward another win and appears the main danger.
4	Recent form sound. Most recently made some head-way from midfield, 2nd of 11 at this track Rtg 61+ on October 11 over 1m, long-neck behind Emerald Trader carrying 125lbs at $5.50. The race before that sat on speed throughout when 2nd of 12 at Belmont Park Rtg 66+ on September 20 over 1 m, on a slow track, neck behind Decision Maker with 118lbs at $6.50. Racing well and can make her presence felt again. 3rd Pick 4 Antique Star Jockey: Amy Jo Hayes Trainer: Michael Grantham J: Amy Jo Hayes T: Michael Grantham	146	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Recent form sound. Most recently made some head-way from midfield, 2nd of 11 at this track Rtg 61+ on October 11 over 1m, long-neck behind Emerald Trader carrying 125lbs at $5.50. The race before that sat on speed throughout when 2nd of 12 at Belmont Park Rtg 66+ on September 20 over 1 m, on a slow track, neck behind Decision Maker with 118lbs at $6.50. Racing well and can make her presence felt again.

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