AU - Ascot - Race 3

Thoroughbred

18 Runners

10.4f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

51.8K

VIEW

Verdict

TWILIGHT TALE (8) closed off well in a similar race 21 days ago, finishing 1.8L off the winner when getting out late in the piece. CJP hops back in the saddle today which is a big tick for her chances. Likely to be back in the run but can swoop over the top to return to winning ways. WEMBANYAMA (6) stepped out to 1 ?m for the first time last start and finished off impressively when looking for the hat-trick. The form out of that race has been solid and the rise in trip doesn't look an issue judging by the way he finished off there. Can get back to winning ways. FIRST ENCOUNTER (2) has gotten a long way back in his past couple when jumping favourite following an impressive first-up effort. He's been left with too much to do but now draws a much softer gate with ZJP claiming 3. Can go a couple better. ROCKING SOCIETY (1) can improve again now third-up off the York Cup. AUTUMN REBEL (5) is another who comes through the York Cup and is not to be discounted.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
8	Most recently 2nd of 8 at this track Grad Hcp 58+ on November 1 over 1m, 1.75 len behind Long Genes carrying 126lbs at $3.80. The run before that 6th of 11 at this track Grad Hcp 60+ on October 18 over 1m, 1.5 len behind Wembanyama carrying 122lbs at $6.50. Made headway last time. No far away last time and now gets CJP in the saddle. 1st Pick 8 Twilight Tale Jockey: Clint Johnston-Porter Trainer: Michael Grantham J: Clint Johnston-Porter T: Michael Grantham	172	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Most recently 2nd of 8 at this track Grad Hcp 58+ on November 1 over 1m, 1.75 len behind Long Genes carrying 126lbs at $3.80. The run before that 6th of 11 at this track Grad Hcp 60+ on October 18 over 1m, 1.5 len behind Wembanyama carrying 122lbs at $6.50. Made headway last time. No far away last time and now gets CJP in the saddle.
6	Most recently from last on the turn 5th of 10 at this track Rtg 66+ on November 1 over 1m, 1.75 len behind Odinaka carrying 126lbs at $5.50. The start before that won by a head at this track Grad Hcp 60+ October 18 over 1m defeating I'm Nipote with 129lbs at $1.70. Out to this trip for the first time, but he finished off well last start and rates highly. 2nd Pick 6 Wembanyama Jockey: Steven Parnham Trainer: Mack Hall J: Steven Parnham T: Mack Hall	92	-	-	-	8%	13/1
Analysis Most recently from last on the turn 5th of 10 at this track Rtg 66+ on November 1 over 1m, 1.75 len behind Odinaka carrying 126lbs at $5.50. The start before that won by a head at this track Grad Hcp 60+ October 18 over 1m defeating I'm Nipote with 129lbs at $1.70. Out to this trip for the first time, but he finished off well last start and rates highly.
2	Form hard to fault. At the latest run 3rd of 9 at this track Rtg 66+ on November 8 over 1m, 2.25 len behind Royal Law with 126lbs at $2. Before that 3rd of 8 at this track Rtg 66+ on October 25 over 1m, slow going 1.4 len behind Be Bardot carrying 132lbs at $2.45. Building nicely this time in work and can feature now at his peak. 3rd Pick 2 First Encounter Jockey: Zephen Johnston-Porter Trainer: Michael Grantham J: Zephen Johnston-Porter T: Michael Grantham	145	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Form hard to fault. At the latest run 3rd of 9 at this track Rtg 66+ on November 8 over 1m, 2.25 len behind Royal Law with 126lbs at $2. Before that 3rd of 8 at this track Rtg 66+ on October 25 over 1m, slow going 1.4 len behind Be Bardot carrying 132lbs at $2.45. Building nicely this time in work and can feature now at his peak.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Morning Line

An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Mare

A female horse of five years or more.