We're at the point in the season where we can start to see youth ascend.

A bunch of teams are coming off of their byes, and rookies have started to get used to the speed of the NFL. Additionally, they're gaining the trust of their coaches, leading to increased usage.

I think that's what we saw out of Bucky Irving in Week 12.

We'll touch on Irving specifically later on. But just in general, our antennas should be up for guys fitting into a similar mold as we hit the stretch run.

Before hitting on some breakout options like Irving, let's dig into key injuries to monitor entering this upcoming week. Then we'll dig into the breakouts and some other key usage notes across the action thus far.

All snap-rate and average depth of target (aDOT) data is via Next-Gen Stats unless noted otherwise. A "deep" target here is a target more than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Key Injuries to Track Entering Week 13

David Montgomery

David Montgomery has already said he'll be ready to go on Thursday despite a shoulder injury in Week 12. But if he can't go, Jahmyr Gibbs will be among the top fantasy backs of the week.

Gibbs played 66.7% of the snaps on Sunday, the highest mark for a Detroit Lions running back this year. His 21 carries were the second most of his career.

In three games without Montgomery last year, Gibbs averaged 132.3 yards from scrimmage. Thus, if there's no Montgomery, Gibbs is -- far and away -- the top play on the Thanksgiving DFS slate, even after considering salary.

Kalif Raymond

Speaking of the Thanksgiving slate, we'll likely need to save salary at some point. We may be doing so at times via Tim Patrick after Kalif Raymond left with a foot injury, putting him in doubt for that game.

Patrick led the secondary receivers with a 50.0% snap rate, running 19 routes on 39 drop backs. In that time, he earned four targets, turning those into 55 yards. After that showing, Patrick is now at a respectable 1.6 yards per route run, earning targets on 14.3% of his routes.

That's probably not enough to add him in season-long, but if you need to truly skimp in DFS, that can work.

More than anything, though, the Lions just funneled work to their studs. All three of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta had six-plus targets, and they controlled all but one of the deep targets (which went to Raymond before his injury). Raymond isn't a huge factor in the offense, but even just narrowing the target tree a tiny bit is worth a lot in such an elite unit.

Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler

Brian Robinson had already gotten hurt early for the Washington Commanders before Austin Ekeler suffered a nasty concussion late. Given that this is Ekeler's second concussion of the season, you hope he winds up being okay. We should expect him to miss time.

Robinson did briefly return to the game after sustaining an ankle injury, but his final snap came with 5:10 left in the first half. On that play, he was targeted on a screen pass that wound up being intercepted after it went off his hands. It's possible he's fine, but given that it was a tight game throughout, there's a good chance he's also sidelined.

That'd leave Jeremy McNichols as the last man standing. McNichols has been good in limited duty, posting 0.5 rushing yards over expected per carry across 44 attempts. They'd probably re-sign Chris Rodriguez Jr., who was released over the weekend, but they signaled which back they prefer by keeping McNichols on the roster. He's worth a waiver add and would be a quality starter if both Robinson and Ekeler were to be out.

Josh Downs

Josh Downs was able to return Sunday despite suffering a shoulder injury, but his status will still bear monitoring during the week.

Downs was still tied for the team lead with seven targets, but it resulted in just 27 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. was the other guy with 7, but he turned his into 96 yards. Pittman had two deep targets for the second straight game.

I'd be willing to boost Pittman if Downs were to miss time. And it'd make Adonai Mitchell somewhat interesting.

But at the end of the day, Anthony Richardson had just 11 completions on 28 attempts, meaning you're depending on big plays for them to come through.

Thus, Pittman isn't a locked-in starter for season-long even if Downs misses time, and I'd be just mildly enticed by him in DFS, as well. A Downs absence would also downgrade Richardson as he'd be without his most talented pass-catcher.

Romeo Doubs

The Green Bay Packers have a tight turnaround with a Thursday game this week, making it likely they're without Romeo Doubs, who left Week 12 with a concussion.

We don't have a huge sample on the Packers without Doubs as he plays nearly every snap. In the one game he missed, Christian Watson was also sidelined.

You would, though, think this would lead to increased target shares for Watson, Jayden Reed, and Tucker Kraft. Since Watson's return, he and Reed are second and third, respectively, on the team in targets, trailing just Doubs. Kraft is next on that list.

Watson had a hideous drop on Sunday and hung a donut in the fantasy column. He does, though, have three-plus deep targets in three straight games. I'd prefer Reed straight up because they actively scheme him touches, but both Reed and Watson have really nice ceilings with one less target-earner on the field.

You could take a swipe at one of the other pieces here, but it'd be a pure dart throw. Dontayvion Wicks has struggled with drops, and even with Doubs leaving early, he still played just 40.3% of the snaps, nearly even with Bo Melton (34.3%). Reed, Watson, and Kraft are the guys to focus on here.

Gardner Minshew

After suffering a broken collarbone on Sunday, Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew is now done for the season.

Desmond Ridder took over, but The Athletic's Tashan Reed and Vic Tafur said they believe that Aidan O'Connell will be activated prior to Week 13 as the Raiders face the Kansas City Chiefs. Minshew and O'Connell have had nearly identical efficiency this year, so a shift to O'Connell wouldn't impact my view of Brock Bowers or Jakobi Meyers much at all.

Ja'Tavion Sanders

Ja'Tavion Sanders was able to return to the Carolina Panthers' facility last night after a scary incident where he landed on his neck. Given how it looked, that's massively encouraging.

With Sanders out, Jalen Coker inactive due to a quad injury, and Adam Thielen back, it was actually David Moore who led the team in targets. He had 10 for 81 yards thanks to a pair of deep targets from Bryce Young. Young has been decently efficient when targeting Moore this year, and Young played well overall Sunday with Moore heavily in the mix, so it may not have been a complete mirage.

Basically, it's tough to decipher who will be the top pass-catcher here. You could make a case for Moore, Thielen, Coker when healthy, and first-rounder Xavier Legette, who had 6 targets for 56 yards Sunday on a team-leading 36 routes. That's a bummer, given that Young has shown some life the past couple of games.

I don't mind taking swipes at Legette in DFS as he's also getting downfield looks. I'd want to see more out of Moore and Thielen before I trust them there, but both could be worth an add in season-long due to volume.

Fantasy Football Role Changes

Bucky Irving

Since Rachaad White's return, he had been operating as the 1A with Bucky Irving as the 1B.

Irving wrestled that role out of his hands on Sunday.

Irving turned 12 carries and 6 targets into 151 yards. He played 54.8% of the snaps, his highest mark since White's return. His 24 adjusted opportunities (carries plus two-times his target total) were his most this season.

Sean Tucker did steal two goal-line touches, and White scored, as well, so Irving's role wasn't perfect. But he's playing good football in an efficient offense, and there's reason to expect the ascent to continue.

Even with the potential for bumpiness in a split backfield, I want to buy Irving. It's clear he's talented, and this is an offense to which we want exposure. He's a must-start in season-long and a player we should target in DFS until the salary reflects his upside.

Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris

Jaylen Warren had been playing better of late as he got further removed from his early-season injuries. That finally resulted in a role shift on Thursday Night Football.

Warren outsnapped Najee Harris, 56.7% to 40.3%. Harris still got 16 carries, but Warren had 11 carries of his own plus 5 targets with 64 yards from scrimmage. Harris did have two red-zone chances versus just one for Warren.

This is likely to still be a 50-50 split, but it was nice to see Warren gain more trust. This is boosting his appeal as a flex option, and we should give at least a slight downgrade to Harris, even if he's still the top fantasy back on the team.

Nick Chubb

I was pretty ready to write off Nick Chubb after he had just a 28.6% snap rate in Week 11. But thanks to the snow and a neutral game script, that jumped back up to 63.6% on Thursday night.

Chubb got 20 carries there, up from a previous high of 16 this year. He turned it into 60 yards from scrimmage, which isn't amazing but is forgivable against such a stout Pittsburgh Steelers defense.

Most importantly, Chubb handled 8 of 11 red-zone chances, cashing 2 of them in for touchdowns. Given the likely lack of yardage, he'll need those to show a ceiling.

I'm still going to be skeptical of Chubb, given we know he'll be off the field if the Cleveland Browns trail. This was, at least, a positive to see he had a two-touchdown day in his range of outcomes.

Ameer Abdullah

Even with no other healthy backs on the roster, I never expected Ameer Abdullah to be an every-down back for the Raiders. He has played almost exclusively on special teams and passing downs for a half decade now.

But Abdullah played a whopping 87.8% of the snaps on Sunday. Yowza.

He still didn't do a ton on early downs -- he had just eight carries -- but he added six targets. Abdullah turned that into 65 yards and a touchdown.

This does sort of make sense. They can't run the football with their actual backs, so why not just abandon the run entirely when they're all hurt? That's a mindset that's conducive to Abdullah.

If both Alexander Mattison and Zamir White are out again Friday, then Abdullah's a fine season-long starter and firmly on the single-game DFS radar, as well.

Noteworthy Fantasy Football Usage

The Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins had two players net at least 8 receptions for 87 yards and a touchdown Sunday, and neither was Tyreek Hill. It's a whole new world.

Those two players were Jonnu Smith and Jaylen Waddle. For Smith, it was a continuation of a solid run. Waddle, though, had 144 yards here after netting 98 total in Tua Tagovailoa's first 4 games back. His season-long managers were finally allowed to exhale.

In the five games since Tagovailoa's return, here's where the targets have gone.

That's enough to make Smith an every-week season-long starter, as weird as it feels.

As for Hill, we should be encouraged by what Waddle did here: you can go from minimal involvement to blow-up in a hurry when Tagovailoa is playing as well as he is. Plus, Hill is still getting tons of high-leverage targets. I'd be inclined to buy low despite the possibility his struggles are due to his wrist injury.

DeAndre Hopkins

DeAndre Hopkins caught a touchdown Sunday, but the rest of his usage was underwhelming.

Hopkins ran a route on just 19 of 42 drop backs. That was behind not just Xavier Worthy and Justin Watson but also JuJu Smith-Schuster in his second game off injury. Hopkins was still tied for second on the team with six targets, but his route rate is actually trending the wrong way.

My guess is that this is the Kansas City Chiefs trying to conserve him for more important games later on, but you'd think that same thought process would apply to Travis Kelce, who ran 37 routes. Thus, we should lower expectations for Hopkins in the short-term as it's hard to earn targets when you're not on the field.

The Chicago Bears

With 47 pass attempts out of Caleb Williams Sunday, there was plenty of volume to go around for the Chicago Bears. It was still concentrated to just a handful of players.

Three different pass-catchers had double-digit targets: Keenan Allen (15), Rome Odunze (10), and Cole Kmet (10). Still, it was D.J. Moore who led in receiving yards as he turned 7 targets into 106 yards and a touchdown.

In two games with Thomas Brown calling plays, Allen leads with a 29.5% target share, followed by Odunze at 25.6%. Despite that, I'd still rank Moore highest of the group as he actually has yardage upside. Allen's 15 targets led to just 86 yards -- his first time topping 50 this year -- and Odunze finished with just 39.

Thus, for me, the pecking order is Moore followed by Odunze and then Allen. But all three are startable in season-long, and all three will be options on the three-game Thanksgiving DFS slate. The same is true for Kmet as his 10 targets came on 40 routes run.

Jordan Addison

Entering Week 12, Jordan Addison's max receiving yardage for the year was 72. He had topped 50 just three times.

Then he went off with 162 on Sunday.

This was mostly thanks to two huge plays, but Addison was tied for the Minnesota Vikings' team lead with nine targets. T.J. Hockenson equaled him, and Justin Jefferson had five.

We're up to a four-game sample now with Hockenson back. Here's where the targets have gone in that time.

The outlook for Addison is much better now than it was, even if his role is still flawed. You can feel decent starting him in season-long, and he's at least a fringe DFS option in the right game environments.

As for Jefferson, he's going to blow up eventually. He's still getting high-leverage looks. But he has had double-digit targets just once this season, so his odds of torching you for not using him are lower. He still needs to be on our radar, especially in potential shootouts, but his cash-game appeal has taken a hit.

Additional Notes

• Mike Evans' role was decent in his return. He ran 19 routes on 30 drop backs and was second on the team with 6 targets. Only one of those was deep, so it may be another week before he has his full allotment of juice, but this was at least a solid first game back.
• Trey McBride had another massive game with 15 targets for 133 yards Sunday, pushing his target share in active games to 28.4%. He still has just one touchdown (and no receiving touchdowns) this year, so we should continue to buy high until the touchdown regression hits.
• In a more neutral script, Aaron Jones' snap rate ticked back up to 78.5%. It seems like the Vikings will want to limit his snaps when things are less tight, but in these back-and-forth contests, he's still got a really nice role.
• I was curious what Tony Pollard's role would look like with Tyjae Spears out, given how eager they were to reduce Pollard's role when Spears was healthy. Well, Pollard played 93.9% of the snaps, getting 24 carries and 5 targets. Thus, if Spears misses more time, we should view Pollard as an every-down back.
• Rico Dowdle played 63.9% of the snaps Sunday, his second-highest mark of the season. He also was effective, turning 19 carries and 3 targets into 98 yards. In what should be a neutral game script Thursday, Dowdle will have fantasy appeal in all formats despite his offense's inconsistency.
• Tyrone Tracy Jr.'s snap rate decreased to 41.1%, and he lost a red-zone fumble again. It's hard to tell how much of this was due to the fumble and how much was because the New York Giants face a divisional rival in a couple days, but it's at least worth monitoring for a talented rookie in a lost season.
• Even with Jonathon Brooks making his debut, Chuba Hubbard still played nearly every snap. He had an 87.9% snap rate with 16 carries and 5 targets. At least for now, we can keep the status quo in how we view Hubbard.

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