Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 14

What's that?

You need a win in the final week of the regular season to make the fantasy playoffs?

Well, aren't you in luck!

It's Bye-pocolypse Pt. II, baby.

Yup -- in the most critical week of the fantasy football season, another six teams are on bye. That includes two of the top three offenses (Baltimore and Washington) by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, as well as the Broncos, Texans, Colts, and Patriots -- (almost) all of whom have multiple fantasy-relevant names.

Not ideal!

But we're in this together, and at least this is shaping up to be a strong offensive slate. Just three of the week's 13 games have totals lower than 44 points on FanDuel Sportsbook, and our NFL projections peg 11 different quarterbacks for 17+ fantasy points. There's upside to be had at the top, and we just need to figure out where that's most likely to come from further down the rankings.

That's what this piece is here for. Below, I've sifted through every fantasy-relevant player and bucketed them into positional tiers based on start-worthiness. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to our NFL projections, which come via numberFire.

These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback -- though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats. Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.

Here's a quick breakdown of the tiers, followed by full position breakdowns:

• Tier 1: Lineup Locks
  • Players you aren't thinking twice about.
• Tier 2: Solid Starts
  • Players you start with confidence.
• Tier 3: Flex Plays
  • Players you can start but with less confidence.
• Tier 4: Streamers
  • Players that work in a pinch.
• Tier 5: Sit if Possible
  • Players you're only starting as a last resort.

All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Fantasy Football Start or Sit: Week 14

Quarterback

Here are the FanDuel Research Week 14 Fantasy Football quarterback projections as well as each player's NFL DFS salary on FanDuel, followed the Week 14 quarterback tiers.

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. CAR
Josh Allen (BUF) @ LAR
Joe Burrow (CIN) @ DAL

Tier 2: Solid Starts

Sam Darnold (MIN) vs. ATL
Brock Purdy (SF) vs. CHI
Jared Goff (DET) vs. GB
Baker Mayfield (TB) vs. LV
Jordan Love (GB) @ DET
Russell Wilson (PIT) vs. CLE

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) vs. NYJ
Tua's been on a heater since returning from his concussion, averaging 273.7 passing yards and 19.8 fantasy points across his last six games. The Jets aren't the best matchup on paper, but they're the seventh-worst adjusted pass defense since firing Robert Saleh and have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last eight weeks. At home, I'm firing Tua up as a mid-range QB1 in most formats.

Tier 3: Flex Plays

Kyler Murray (ARI) vs. SEA
Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs. LAC
Caleb Williams (CHI) @ SF
Justin Herbert (LAC) @ KC
Derek Carr (NO) @ NYG

Jameis Winston (CLE) @ PIT
We can't expect Jameis to throw for 497 and 4 touchdowns again, but his 36-fantasy-point outing against Denver has to instill some confidence in him even on the road against a tough Steelers defense. Still, Pittsburgh has been better against the run than the pass, and they just let up 309 passing yards to Joe Burrow. And even if this isn't the best spot to trot Jameis out, the volume should still be there. In five games with Winston under center, the Browns have the third-highest pass rate in football.

Tier 4: Streamers

Aidan O'Connell (LV) @ TB
Will Levis (TEN) vs. JAC
Cooper Rush (DAL) vs. CIN
Matthew Stafford (LAR) vs. BUF

Geno Smith (SEA) @ ARI
Smith hasn't been much of a fantasy asset since Seattle's Week 10 bye, finishing as the QB19 or worse in three straight games. The Seahawks are middle of the pack in PROE (pass rate over expectation) over that stretch after throwing at one of the highest rates in the league early in the year. Without that volume, it's hard to trust Geno as anything more than a streamer against an improving Cardinals secondary. Dating back to Week 6, Arizona ranks seventh in adjusted pass defense and have given up the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Tier 5: Sit if Possible

Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) @ MIA
Bryce Young (CAR) @ PHI

Kirk Cousins (ATL) @ MIN
I like a revenge game as much as the next person, but it's hard to get there with Cousins this week. Kirk is coming off an absolutely dreadful 6.1-fantasy-point showing that saw him throw 4 interceptions, marking the seventh time in 12 games he's finished outside the top 20 quarterbacks. He's cleared 13 fantasy points just twice against teams not named the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and I'm personally terrified for him against numberFire's top adjusted defense -- one that blitzes more than any other team in football.

Running Back

Here are the FanDuel Research Week 14 Fantasy Football running back projections as well as each player's NFL DFS salary on FanDuel, followed the Week 14 running back tiers.

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Bijan Robinson (ATL) @ MIN
De'Von Achane (MIA) vs. NYJ
Saquon Barkley (PHI) vs. CAR
Alvin Kamara (NO) @ NYG
Chase Brown (CIN) @ DAL
Bucky Irving (TB) vs. LV

Tier 2: Solid Starts

Breece Hall (NYJ) @ MIA
Kyren Williams (LAR) vs. BUF
Kenneth Walker III (SEA) @ ARI
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) vs. GB
Aaron Jones (MIN) vs. ATL
Tony Pollard (TEN) vs. JAC
Josh Jacobs (GB) @ DET
James Cook (BUF) @ LAR
David Montgomery (DET) vs. GB
James Conner (ARI) vs. SEA
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) vs. NO

Rico Dowdle (DAL) vs. CIN
Dallas is dead-last in adjusted offense in four games with Cooper Rush under center, so this isn't exactly an offense you're itching to start in fantasy. But their quarterback change has forced them to rely on Dowdle more, and he's in a really nice spot against the Bengals. Cincy is a putrid 27th in adjusted run defense and has permitted the ninth-most RYOE (rushing yards over expectation) per attempt to running backs. Dowdle's seen 22.8 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) per game with Rush under center, so there's more upside here than you'd think despite the otherwise-ugly offense.

Tier 3: Flex Plays

D'Andre Swift (CHI) @ SF
Najee Harris (PIT) vs. CLE
Nick Chubb (CLE) @ PIT
Alexander Mattison (LV) @ TB
Rachaad White (TB) vs. LV
Jaylen Warren (PIT) vs. CLE
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) @ PHI

Isaac Guerendo (SF) vs. CHI
With Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason both on IR, rookie Isaac Guerendo enters Week 14 as the clear top rusher in San Francisco. Guerendo went for 17.7 fantasy points on 22 adjusted opportunities in the only game he saw more than 50% of snaps, and he turned 5 touches into 16 yards and a score in limited work last week. The fourth-round pick has the size to handle a full workload in this Shannahan run game, and this week's matchup isn't tough enough to shy away from him. The Bears are down to 22nd in adjusted run defense, and they just fired defensive-minded head coach Matt Eberflus. With so many teams on bye, it's going to be hard to keep Guerendo out of lineups.

Tier 4: Streamers

Travis Etienne (JAC) @ TEN
Tank Bigsby (JAC) @ TEN
Jerome Ford (CLE) @ PIT
Tyjae Spears (TEN) vs. JAC
Zach Charbonnet (SEA) @ ARI

Isiah Pacheco (KC) vs. LAC
Pacheco will ascend up the running back ranks sooner or later, but I still don't feel great starting him in his second week off IR. He looked spry in his return to action last week, rushing for 44 yards on just 7 attempts. But the Chiefs limited him to just 32.8% of snaps, and they fed Kareem Hunt half of their red zone rush attempts. We can except his workload to increase as he revs back up, but it's anyone guess when that will be. Though the Chargers have been better against the pass than the run, it's still difficult to justify starting Pacheco given the volume question marks.

Tier 5: Sit if Possible

Cam Akers (MIN) vs. ATL
Kimani Vidal (LAC) @ KC
Ray Davis (BUF) @ LAR
Kareem Hunt (KC) vs. LAC
Raheem Mostert (MIA) vs. NYJ
Jonathon Brooks (CAR) @ PHI
Tyler Allgeier (ATL) @ MIN

Gus Edwards (LAC) @ KC
Edwards put up just 3.8 fantasy points despite handling 53.3% of snaps in LA's first game without J.K. Dobbins, though he was awarded only 8 adjusted opportunities. But he's always been a volume-dependent fantasy option, and this week's matchup is as tough as it gets. Kansas City has the fifth-best run defense in football according to numberFire's metrics, and they've allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing backs. Gus Bus is a pretty easy sit for me except in the most dire of circumstances.

Wide Receivers

Here are the FanDuel Research Week 14 Fantasy Football wide receiver projections as well as each player's NFL DFS salary on FanDuel, followed the Week 14 wide receiver tiers.

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Justin Jefferson (MIN) vs. ATL
Mike Evans (TB) vs. LV
Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) @ DAL
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) vs. GB
Tee Higgins (CIN) @ DAL
A.J. Brown (PHI) vs. CAR
Puka Nacua (LAR) vs. BUF
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) vs. CIN
Tyreek Hill (MIA) vs. NYJ
Drake London (ATL) @ MIN

Tier 2: Solid Starts

Cooper Kupp (LAR) vs. BUF
George Pickens (PIT) vs. CLE
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) @ MIA
Ladd McConkey (LAC) @ KC
D.K. Metcalf (SEA) @ ARI
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) @ ARI
Jakobi Meyers (LV) @ TB
Jerry Jeudy (CLE) @ PIT

D.J. Moore (CHI) @ SF
After back-to-back 20-point games, Moore is back in the circle of trust for fantasy. He's seen at least 7 targets in four of the last five games and is coming off a 16-target outing on Thanksgiving. He's notably averaged 4 downfield targets (10+ yards) and 2 red zone targets in two games with Thomas Brown calling plays, so there's now added upside to accompany his always-steady target share. With San Francisco dipping to 24th in adjusted pass defense and allowing the 10th-highest target rate to wide receivers over their last four games, Moore is well-positioned to continue his hot stretch.

Tier 3: Flex Plays

Jameson Williams (DET) vs. GB
Deebo Samuel (SF) vs. CHI
Malik Nabers (NYG) vs. NO
Jayden Reed (GB) @ DET
Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC) @ TEN
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) vs. SEA
Davante Adams (NYJ) @ MIA
DeVonta Smith (PHI) vs. CAR
Darnell Mooney (ATL) @ MIN
Jauan Jennings (SF) vs. CHI
Khalil Shakir (BUF) @ LAR
Christian Watson (GB) @ DET
DeAndre Hopkins (KC) vs. LAC
Dontayvion Wicks (GB) @ DET
Elijah Moore (CLE) @ PIT

Calvin Ridley (TEN) vs. JAC
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) vs. JAC
Starting any pass-catcher attached to Will Levis with your fantasy season on the line is a tough ask, but Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine are in a really nice spot this week. The Jags are dead-last in adjusted pass defense on the season, and they've permitted the third-most fantasy points per target to opposing wide receivers. Ridley (25% target share; 47.6% air yard share) and NWI (19.6%; 30.3%) have been plenty busy in four games since Levis returned from injury, so I can get behind either as WR3s or flex options this week.

Tier 4: Streamers

Amari Cooper (BUF) @ LAR
Keenan Allen (CHI) @ SF
Tyler Lockett (SEA) @ ARI
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) vs. NYJ
Jordan Addison (MIN) vs. ATL
Rome Odunze (CHI) @ SF
Quentin Johnston (LAC) @ KC
Xavier Worthy (KC) vs. LAC
Keon Coleman (BUF) @ LAR
Josh Palmer (LAC) @ KC

Demarcus Robinson (LAR) vs. BUF
Robinson should be good to go after departing Week 13 with a hand injury, and he makes for a sneaky receiver streamer against the Bills. Robinson's caught touchdowns in consecutive games, finishing as the WR36 and WR27 in fantasy. He won't command a monster target share with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua around, but he's actually been more effective as LA's tertiary wide receiver over the last two seasons. And while Buffalo is ninth in adjusted pass defense, they're closer to league average in fantasy points per target allowed to wide receivers.

Tier 5: Sit if Possible

Parker Washington (JAC) @ TEN
Ricky Pearsall (SF) vs. CHI

Adam Thielen (CAR) @ PHI
With Bryce Young looking suddenly competent, Thielen's been a legitimate fantasy option in two weeks since returning from injury. He caught 3 of 4 targets for 57 yards in Week 12 before exploding for 99 yards and a touchdown on 8 receptions last week. I'll buy back into this Carolina offense in the fantasy playoffs (gulp), but this week is the ultimate stay-away. The Eagles are second in adjusted pass defense since Week 3, during which they've allowed the fewest fantasy points and yards per route run to wide recievers.

Tight Ends

Here are the FanDuel Research Week 14 Fantasy Football tight end projections as well as each player's NFL DFS salary on FanDuel, followed the Week 14 tight end tiers.

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

George Kittle (SF) @ ARI
Brock Bowers (LV) @ TB
Trey McBride (ARI) vs. SEA
David Njoku (CLE) @ PIT

Tier 2: Solid Starts

Travis Kelce (KC) vs. LAC
Evan Engram (JAC) @ TEN
Cade Otton (TB) vs. LV
Jonnu Smith (MIA) vs. NYJ
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) vs. ATL

Sam LaPorta (DET) vs. GB
LaPorta is back in our good graces after a two-touchdown effort on Thanksgiving, and he could carry that feast into December against Green Bay this week. The Packers have given up the fourth-highest target rate and ninth-most fantasy points per target to tight ends this season, and LaPorta's usage has been trending up in recent weeks. In five healthy games since Week 8, LaPorta has a 21.4% target share and the highest red zone target share (40%) on the Lions.

Tier 3: Flex Plays

Jake Ferguson (DAL) vs. CIN
Tucker Kraft (GB) @ DET
Juwan Johnson (NO) @ NYG
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) vs. CLE

Will Dissly (LAC) @ KC
Dissly saw only one pass come his way last week, but he still paced the Chargers' tight end room in route participation and had averaged 6.2 targets over his previous six games. With Ladd McConkey banged up, don't be surprised if Justin Herbert peppers Dissly with looks against a exploitable Chiefs secondary. KC is 30th in adjusted pass defense over the last five weeks, and they've bled production to tight ends all season. They've allowed a league-high 23.4% target rate and 2.12 yards per route run to the position.

Tier 4: Streamers

Cole Kmet (CHI) @ SF
Noah Fant (SEA) vs. CHI
Foster Moreau (NO) @ NYG
Dawson Knox (BUF) @ LAR

Grant Calcaterra (PHI) vs. CAR
Hopefully you don't have to dig this deep, but I think you can do a lot worse than Calcaterra against the Panthers this week. Dallas Goedert didn't practice Wednesday after departing Week 13 early, so there's a good chance Calcaterra starts opposite a Carolina defense allowing the most fantasy points per target and third-most yards per route runs to opposing tight ends. With Goedert sidelined from Weeks 6-9, Calcaterra ranked third on the team in target share (16.5%) and averaged 40 receiving yards per game.

Tier 5: Sit if Possible

Mike Gesicki (CIN) @ DAL

Kyle Pitts (ATL) @ MIN
I wrote Pitts up as one of the players you can drop after Week 13 on Tuesday, so you can guess how I feel about him against the Vikings this week. Pitts laid a goose egg for the second time this season last week, and he's now failed to crack two fantasy points in three of the last four games. He has a measly 9.4% target rate during that stretch, falling victim to what's been a downright putrid Atlanta passing attack. With Minnesota allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points per target to tight ends, Kyle Pitts belongs closer to the waiver wire than your starting lineup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.