Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 13

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The bye-pocalypse is back!

Hopefully you didn't get too comfortable having all 32 teams in action, because a whopping six teams are off this week. That includes the Bills, Bears, Raiders, Vikings, Giants, and Ravens.

Aside from New York (hang in there, Saquon Barkley), all of those teams have multiple players we'd typically lock into starting lineups.

Woof.

But don't sweat. There are plenty of names to fill out those fantasy lineups as we hit the home stretch. You just have to know where to look.

That's where this piece comes in.

Every week I list out every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more startworthy. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to numberFire's projection model.

These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback -- though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats.

Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.

All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 13

Quarterback

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Tier 2: Probable Starters

Kyler Murray (ARI) -- Through three starts, Kyler Murray has averaged just 11.6 passing fantasy points per game and posted an EPA per dropback (-0.24) on par with Bryce Young. That's not great, but the rushing is glorious. He was limited to two yards last week but notched 33 and 51 rushing yards over the previous two outings and has scored in all three. The Steelers' blitz-happy defense should aid Murray's scrambling and keep him on the QB1 radar.

Sam Howell (WSH) -- Is Sam Howell matchup-proof? People (me) are asking! Howell finished with a clean 18.3 points against Dallas' vaunted defense, and he's now gone under 16 fantasy points just twice in 12 games. That puts him in the starting conversation even against an improving Miami defense. Washington is a 9.5-point home 'dog, and the Commanders rank third in pass rate over expectation, so expect more volume in a potentially negative game script.

Jared Goff (DET) -- While Jared Goff has not looked great the last two weeks, he continues to rack up garbage-time numbers. With 18.2 fantasy points on Thanksgiving, Goff's 17 passing fantasy points per game is tied with Justin Herbert for seventh in the NFL. His home/road splits are still concerning, but those should be mitigated playing on turf in New Orleans. The Saints are in the bottom half in adjusted fantasy points allowed per dropback, so continue to ride this fantasy-friendly offense.

Russell Wilson (DEN) -- Another week, another sub-200-yard passing day for Russell Wilson. However, he still finished as the QB12 in fantasy thanks to 34 rushing yards and a rushing score. That marked the fifth time in seven games Russ has eclipsed 30 yards on the ground. In addition to Wilson's rushing, I expect his arm to be on full display in Week 13. Their matchup with Houston has the second-highest total (47.5) of the week, while the Texans are bottom 10 in success rate and adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Tier 3: On the Fence

Derek Carr (NO) -- Even with New Orleans' injuries piling up, Derek Carr is a capable quarterback streamer in a friendly home matchup. The Lions have allowed at least 21 fantasy points to four of their last five opposing QBs (and at least 26 to three of them). They've surrendered the seventh-highest passing success rate and the seventh-most adjusted fantasy points per dropback. Plus, Carr is a home underdog in a game with a moderately high (45.5) total. The floor should be there.

Jordan Love (GB) -- The Jordan Love experience truly is a roller coaster, but there's no denying its upward trajectory of late. Love is fresh off the best fantasy game of his career and quietly owns seven top-12 finishes in 11 weeks. That would make returning home to Lambeau a lot more appealing if it weren't to face the Chiefs. KC has yet to give up a 20-point game to a quarterback, and they rank third in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position. There just isn't much of a ceiling this week.

Baker Mayfield (TB) -- Baker Mayfield is just fine. He's got enough upside to flirt with 20 fantasy points and has displayed a solid (enough) floor where he won't hurt you. The way to attack Carolina is on the ground, but Mayfield's tossed multiple scores in four of his last five and has developed a nice red zone rapport with Mike Evans. With six quarterbacks on bye, Baker can be streamed in a pinch.

Gardner Minshew (IND) -- Speaking of streaming in a pinch, hello, Gardner Minshew. He survived Indy's gauntlet of a first-half schedule and looked sharp coming out of the bye. Despite failing to throw a touchdown, he punched one in on the ground and managed 251 passing yards off 41 attempts. Indy flipped the script and ran all over Tennesee in an earlier matchup, but expect the Colts to put a bigger emphasis on the air attack against numberFire's 27th-ranked adjusted pass defense.

Kenny Pickett (PIT) -- All it took was Matt Canada getting fired for me to talk about Kenny Pickett as a startable fantasy QB. Pickett set season-best marks for passing yards (278) and completion percentage (73%) last week -- though he's still thrown just one touchdown since Week 5. That limits his upside, but the floor is decent against a Cardinals defense that's 31st in adjusted pass defense and has allowed the second-most adjusted fantasy points per dropback.

Tier 4: Sit

Matthew Stafford (LAR) -- Rejoice! Last week, Matthew Stafford threw for multiple scores for just the second time this season, yet none of his four found Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua. Funneling touchdowns to Tyler Higbee and running backs doesn't instill a ton of confidence that Stafford's touchdown woes are over, especially with Cleveland's top-ranked pass defense coming to town. Only three QBs have cleared 16 fantasy points against the Browns, so I'd rather swing for upside elsewhere.

Geno Smith (SEA) -- Geno Smith struggled to 8.3 fantasy points in a home date with San Francisco, a game that saw him take six sacks, so I can't say I'm bullish on him in Dallas. Playing indoors should help, but this Seattle passing attack hasn't shown the kind of juice where I see them keeping pace with Dallas. Per NextGenStats, the Cowboys are second in sack rate and third in EPA per dropback, so I'm anticipating another difficult game for Geno.

Running Back

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Tier 2: Probable Starters

Zack Moss (IND) -- With Jonathan Taylor out, Zack Moss becomes a borderline must-start. From Weeks 2-8, Moss was the RB4 (16.7 points per game) while playing 66.7% of snaps, and he still ranks in the top 10 for rushing yards on the season. The matchup isn't ideal -- Titans rank 5th in numberFire's adjusted rush defense -- but Indy's 22.0-point implied team total gives Moss a nice ceiling to go along with his RB2 floor.

Jerome Ford (CLE) -- You can't knock Jerome Ford's consistency. In full-PPR leagues, Ford has notched exactly 11.9 points in three straight weeks. In half-PPR, he's been between 9.9 and 11.4 in four games in a row. Although his workload continues to fluctuate, Ford actually saw his highest snap share (70%) of the season in Week 12. Averaging 20.6 adjusted opportunities in an expanding role, Ford is a high-floor RB2 against a middle-of-the-pack Rams run defense.

Jaylen Warren (PIT) -- The post-Matt Canada breakout didn't come for Jaylen Warren last week. I'm not ready to jump ship. Warren saw a near-50% snap share, three red-zone rush attempts, and 19 adjusted opportunities. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Pittsburgh, but Warren is still the Steeler you want to start. Expect him to bounce back against a Cardinals front allowing the 13th-most adjusted fantasy points per carry and fourth-most per target to opposing RBs.

Najee Harris (PIT) -- Don't tell anyone, but Najee Harris is the RB11 since Pittsburgh's Week 6 bye. He's averaged 19.3 adjusted opportunities and two red-zone rush attempts per game over that stretch. Harris benefits from the same soft matchup as Warren, albeit with a little less upside than his counterpart.

De'Von Achane/Jeff Wilson Jr. (MIA) -- Jeff Wilson proved to be fantasy-relevant with De'Von Achane out last week, and I think we'll get more of the same this week. Miami has a week-high 29.5-point implied team total against a Commanders defense that's allowed the sixth-most adjusted fantasy points per carry and the third-most per RB target, so you want a piece of this Miami backfield. Just pay attention to Achane's status.

Tier 3: On the Fence

Zach Charbonnet (SEA) -- Zach Charbonnet commanded 22 adjusted opportunities while playing 87% of snaps last week in the absence of Kenneth Walker III. Although he totaled just 7.8 points, that kind of workhorse role will usually lead to bigger games. That gives me some confidence going forward, but the matchup is tough enough that Charbonnet is not a must-start. Dallas is top 10 in fewest adjusted fantasy points allowed per carry, so starting him comes with tempered expectations.

AJ Dillon (GB) -- It's pretty clear that A.J. Dillon doesn't have a particularly high ceiling. The utilization is there, though. He saw 20 adjusted opportunities last week and 22 the week prior. Although he totaled just 17.7 points across those two outings and despite the fact KC has been worse against the run than the pass, Dillon remains a respectable floor play.

Chuba Hubbard (CAR) -- Chuba Hubbard has hit double-digit fantasy points just twice this season -- both the games he's scored in. Relying on touchdowns to be fantasy-relevant makes him tough to trust on a putrid Carolina offense, especially against a Bucs defense that's third in adjusted rush D. Still, he's averaged 18.8 adjusted opportunities since Week 4, so there's a decent floor if you're desperate.

Antonio Gibson (WSH) -- I'm pretty bullish on Antonio Gibson this week. Gibson battled through injury on a short week to tie Brian Robinson with a 45.3% snap share on Thanksgiving. Gibson has run a route on 44.2% of dropbacks and commanded a 10.1% target share since Week 5, and with Washington continuing to throw more than 40 times per game, he's got some sneaky value in a game where they're nearly 10-point 'dogs.

Tyjae Spears (TEN) -- After out-snapping Derrick Henry in Weeks 9 and 10, Tyjae Spears has reverted to his backup role in the last two games. Most concerning is his route rate, which is down to 37.5% in the last two weeks (compared to Henry's 43.8%). Spears had his best game of the season against Indy in Week 5 but remains a dart-throw even with the Colts' allowing the third-most adjusted fantasy points per carry.

Samaje Perine (DEN) -- Samaje Perine's snap share dipped last week, but he found the end zone and now has double-digit fantasy points in consecutive weeks. There's value in his pass-catching role against a Houston defense allowing the eighth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to RBs.

Tier 4: Sit

James Conner (ARI) -- It's been tough sledding for James Conner since he returned from IR, and now he has another running back to worry about. Conner out-snapped Michael Carter by just one snap last week, and Carter actually ran more routes. I'm not sure what that means going forward. I won't be surprised if Arizona begins to move away from the 28-year-old down the stretch. I'm good to sit Conner against a Steelers defense that ranks fifth in RB rush success rate allowed.

Tyler Allgeier (ATL) -- Arthur Smith is finally leaning into Bijan Robinson, and that's cratered Tyler Allgeier's fantasy value. Allgier is still a good bet for double-digit carries, but if the red zone role is gone, I'm not sure where the fantasy production comes from.

Dameon Pierce (HOU) -- Dameon Pierce was out-snapped 47-11 by Devin Singletary in his return to action last week. Singletary has thrived as Houston's lead back, leaving Pierce on fantasy benches until further notice.

Miles Sanders (CAR) -- Miles Sanders faces the same obstacles as Hubbard (bad offense/bad matchup) but doesn't see as much work as Hubbard does. He has just three red zone rush attempts since Week 5, so there's no upside here.

Wide Receivers

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Tier 2: Probable Starters

Puka Nacua (LAR) -- Has the Puka Nacua magic run its course? Perhaps... but the utilization is still stellar. Although Puka has eclipsed double-digit points just once in his last four games, he's posted a team-leading 88.3% route rate and 24.4% target share over that span. The matchup is downright brutal this week -- Cleveland is fifth in adjusted fantasy points allowed per target to WRs -- but the usage suggests a bounceback is imminent. He's a floor play this week.

DeAndre Hopkins (TEN) -- DeAndre Hopkins has been quiet since his three-touchdown explosion in Week 8. He's still commanding a 25.2% target share over his last four games. Hopkins torched Indy for eight receptions and 140 yards back in Week 5, and the Colts allow the eighth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to receivers, so I like him to rebound at home.

Courtland Sutton (DEN) -- Though he failed to catch a touchdown for just the third time this season, Courtland Sutton impressed with 61 yards against the Browns last week. He leads the Broncos with a 23.2% target share, 38% air yard share, and 55% end zone target share. With how efficiently Russell Wilson is playing, it'd be hard for me to leave Sutton out of lineups against a Texans defense that's 25th in scheduled-adjusted pass defense.

Diontae Johnson (PIT) -- Another receiver with nice utilization but a lack of fantasy production of late, Diontae Johnson is in a nice bounceback spot against the Cardinals. Arizona is 31st in scheduled-adjusted pass defense and has let up the fourth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to WRs. Johnson's commanded at least a 25% target share in five of his last six games, so he should remain a part of fantasy lineups in an improving Pittsburgh offense.

Marquise Brown (ARI) -- Ladies and gentlemen, we found him. Marquise Brown had his first good game with Kyler back, securing 6 of 12 targets (27.3% share) for 88 yards and an eye-popping 180.4 air yards. His arrow is firmly pointed up this week against a middling Steelers secondary that's allowed the sixth-most yards per route run (YPRR) to opposing wideouts.

Josh Downs (IND) -- Josh Downs saw 13 targets (32.5% share) in Indy's first game off their bye. That included three red zone targets, and while he didn't score, Downs will have better weeks ahead if this role holds. Tennesee is one of the best fantasy matchups for WRs -- they rank fourth in YPRR, third in target rate, and second in adjusted fantasy points per target -- so Downs almost has to be in lineups.

Rashee Rice (KC) -- Look, if I knew for sure that Rashee Rice was going to play close to 70% of snaps, I'd be all in. He enjoyed a nice breakout last week, notching 20.7 points thanks to a staggering 31.3% target share. Anyone commanding that kind of target share from Mahomes is well worth starting, but Justin Watson saw a 28% share the week prior so I want to see it again before I'm fully sold on Rice as a weekly starter. He's a high-upside WR3 in a heavy bye week.

Tier 3: On the Fence

Garrett Wilson (NYJ) -- Same stuff, different quarterback. Garrett Wilson posted a 27.8% target share in his first game with Tim Boyle, securing seven of 10 targets for 44 yards, a score, and 13.9 fantasy points. There's always risk with Wilson given the QB play, and that's especially true this week against Atlanta's talented outside corners. The volume is there to warrant starting him -- you have to live with a wide degree of variance.

Adam Thielen (CAR) -- After last week's 0.7-point dud, Adam Thielen has finished outside the top 36 WRs three of the last four weeks. He's down at WR44 since their bye, so there's a chance that early-season magic fizzled out. While this matchup is great -- Tampa is 27th in adjusted pass defense -- there's a lot of uncertainty in a bad offense that just fired their head coach.

George Pickens (PIT) -- George Pickens caught just three passes last week, but his 58 yards were his most since Week 7. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Pittsburgh, and the offense still isn't great. With that said, there's enough big-play potential against an abysmal Arizona secondary to warrant starting Pickens. Just bear in mind his 16.9% target share over the last five games leaves his floor pretty low.

Demario Douglas (NE) -- If you're in a full PPR league, Demario Douglas is a borderline must-start if he's healthy enough to play this week. Pop Douglas has caught at least five passes in four straight games, a span during which he's commanded a 24.2% target share. An ugly 5.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT) over that span has limited his upside, but the matchup is mouth-watering this week. The Chargers have allowed the seventh-most adjusted fantasy points per target to WRs, so Douglas has a nice ceiling.

Curtis Samuel (WSH) -- Curtis Samuel exploded for nine receptions and 100 yards last week, posting a season-best single-game target share of 27.3% in the process. There's tons of garbage time potential for Washington this week, and Samuel should be one of the main beneficiaries considering Miami's strength is on the outside, not in the slot (where Samuel lines up 72% of the time, per PFF).

Chris Godwin (TB) -- It's been a quiet month for Chris Godwin. He hasn't eclipsed 7.5 fantasy points since Week 8 and still has just one touchdown this season. Still, he's running essentially the same number of routes as Mike Evans over that span, but a 19.7% target share and 15.4% red zone share have really capped his upside. Carolina's secondary has been decent, but the utilization still makes Godwin a defendable start.

Tyler Lockett (SEA) -- The production varies, but Tyler Lockett continues to enjoy superb utilization. He's seen at least 18% of Seattle's targets in every game since Week 2 and just posted a season-high 97% route rate. Dallas is a tough matchup for receivers, though there's a good chance the Seahawks (as 9.0-point underdogs) get down early and have to live through the air. Lockett has upside.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) -- On one hand, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been held under six fantasy points in each of the last two weeks. On the other hand, JSN just posted the best route rate (90.9%) of his career. The uber-talented rookie is a big play waiting to happen and -- like Lockett -- has garbage-time upside in a game Seattle is expected to lose by nearly double-digits.

Christian Watson (GB) -- Right when you thought he was done, Christian Watson goes for 94 yards and a touchdown, finishing as the WR10 with a season-best 17.9 points. That blow-up gives me a bit more confidence in throwing Watson out there if I'm desperate. With that said, it's hard to get too excited this week considering the Chiefs rank fifth in scheduled-adjusted pass defense and third in adjusted fantasy points allowed per target to WRs.

Jayden Reed (GB) -- If anyone knows where the Jayden Reed fan club meets, let me know. The rookie continues to flash a ton of fantasy upside, eclipsing double-digit points last week for the fourth time in five games. Reed led Green Bay with a 26.7% target share in that one and has quietly totaled 83 rushing yards across his last four games. He's one of our top waiver wire targets for a reason. If you're in a pinch, Reed is serviceable this week despite the tough matchup.

Brandin Cooks (DAL) -- Brandin Cooks has really enjoyed Dak Prescott's elite play and has now notched at least 12 points in four of six games. His target share fluctuates, but there's upside this week against a Seahawks defense that's given up the 13th-most adjusted fantasy points per target to opposing wideouts.

Jahan Dotson (WSH) -- There's a ton of variance with Jahan Dotson. He has a pair of top-10 finishes on the year to go with a pair of zero-point outings. That makes him hard to trust, but there's upside in what could be the highest-scoring game of the week. He's the definition of a dart throw.

Tier 4: Sit

Drake London (ATL) -- You couldn't pay me to start Drake London this week. London faces the Jets -- the league leaders in fewest adjusted fantasy points per target allowed to WRs -- on the road, where he's averaged just 7.2 points per game. I can't emphasize enough how bad Desmond Ridder has been away from home. His EPA per dropback on the road is lower than Zach Wilson's, PJ Walker's, and Danny DeVito's season-long marks. You're better off streaming someone from the waiver wire.

Amari Cooper (CLE) -- It was hard to get excited about Amari Cooper with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, and that was before DTR and Cooper left Week 12 with injuries. Even if both are cleared for Sunday, I don't see much upside on the road against a Rams secondary allowing the sixth-fewest adjusted fantasy points per target to opposing WRs, especially given the nagging tendencies of rib injuries.

Tee Higgins (CIN) -- Assuming Tee Higgins (hamstring) is even active on Sunday, there's still too much risk to start him this week. Although Jake Browning was serviceable in his first start, I find it hard to believe he can support two fantasy-relevant WRs given Higgins' prior inconsistencies with Joe Burrow. Jacksonville isn't a daunting matchup, but they've given up the seventh-lowest target rate to receivers. That's a tough sell given the number of pass catchers in Cincy's offense.

Jerry Jeudy (DEN) -- Where is the upside with Jerry Jeudy? Jeudy has just two games with double-digit points and hasn't finished with more than 60 yards just once since Week 3. The Texans have let the sixth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to WRs, but they're allowing the fourth-lowest target rate to the position since Week 8. Denver's averaged the second-fewest plays per game and posted the fifth-lowest pass rate over expectation. I don't see the path to fantasy relevance.

Tight Ends

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Tier 2: Probable Starters

Pat Freiermuth (PIT) -- Boy, was Pat Freiermuth glad to see Matt Canada go, or what? In his second game off IR, Freiermuth flashed what made him such a high fantasy pick before the season. He turned a career-high 34.4% target share into nine receptions and 120 yards, 47 of which came after the catch. That kind of volume doesn't grow on trees, so Freiermuth almost has to be started with a number of tight ends on bye.

Taysom Hill (NO) -- There's a chance Taysom Hill and Juwan Johnson are New Orleans' top two pass catchers this week with Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Michael Thomas all banged up. That would hurt Hill's chances of scoring given the overall downgrade to the offense, but I wouldn't be shocked to see his snap share creep over 50% for the first time since Week 7. Taysom has immense upside against a flailing Detroit defense.

Juwan Johnson (NO) -- It's easier to project Juwan Johnson's role in this offense than Hill's. He commanded an 18.9% target share last week and has hovered around a 75% snap share for three straight games. With a potentially monster workload this week, Johnson is a top tight end streamer and someone you can plug and play with confidence.

Dallas Goedert (PHI) -- Dallas Goedert has a chance to play, and if he does, it'll be hard not to start him. San Francisco is by far the most difficult tight-end matchup by adjusted fantasy points per target, but Goedert was hovering around a 20% target share before he went out. Give me a proven commodity on a top offense, even if he's limited.

Tier 3: On the Fence

Logan Thomas (WSH) -- Logan Thomas failed to notch 30 yards for just the third time all season last week. Despite that, he remains in the starting conversation ahead of Washington's bout with Miami. The Dolphins are an average matchup for tight ends, and Thomas has averaged 11.6 points per game at home this season. He's a fine play.

Gerald Everett (LAC) -- You can't 100% trust Gerald Everett. However, it was encouraging to see him play 63.6% of snaps last week after missing the game prior. Everett saw a meh 9.8% target share, but he caught all four targets for 43 yards and a score. New England has actually done a great job against tight ends, but the Chargers are desperate for playmakers, making Everett a decent fill-in.

Tucker Kraft (GB) -- Tucker Kraft scored in his first game as the starter. He saw only two targets. He did, however, run a ton of routes (81.3% route rate) and almost never left the field (96.3% snap rate). Still, he's nothing more than a dart throw against KC's elite defense.

Tier 4: Sit

Tyler Higbee (LAR) -- I'd advise against chasing Tyler Higbee's two-touchdown day. Even with him finishing as the TE1 last week, Higbee still saw just a 16.1% target share and had scored more than three points only once in the previous six games. Cleveland's daunting pass defense is up next. While the Browns have been vulnerable to opposing tight ends, the utilization doesn't support starting him.

Kyle Pitts (ATL) -- Kyle Pitts hasn't cracked double-digit points since Week 6, and his route participation hit a season-low (57.1%) last week. No one knows what Arthur Smith is doing with his pass catchers, so there's no reason to start Pitts on the road against a stellar Jets secondary.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 13

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 13

Quarterback

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Tier 2: Probable Starters

Tier 3: On the Fence

Tier 4: Sit

Running Back

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Tier 2: Probable Starters

Tier 3: On the Fence

Tier 4: Sit

Wide Receivers

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Tier 2: Probable Starters

Tier 3: On the Fence

Tier 4: Sit

Tight Ends

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Tier 2: Probable Starters

Tier 3: On the Fence

Tier 4: Sit

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