There are a lot of ways to value NFL players for fantasy football.

Of course, how many fantasy points they score is paramount, and no amount of regression analysis or film grinding will ever change that.

However, players can overperform and underperform in certain games and timeframes, and it's important to find some sort of balance.

Is a receiver coming off of a six-target, two-touchdown game? He's probably someone we should expect to take a step back in the production department. But what if he's slotted into an elite matchup with a high game over/under?

Or if a wideout leads the league in unrealized air yards (basically a lot of high-leverage targets without as many catches as he should have), he's easy to pinpoint as a breakout candidate. But what if he's outdoors in heavy winds against a top-tier pass D? Maybe next week is his week.

For that reason, I assembled a three-tier breakout model for wide receivers.

The Breakout Score model accounts for three key things:

1. Expected Fantasy Points: Based on things like targets, air yards, red zone targets, and end zone targets, we can assign a value to a player's actual workload.
2. Game Environment: By combining some key variables such as opposing pass defense, wind, game total, and more, we can see who is in a spot actually primed for a breakout.
3. Weekly Volume Projections: Sometimes, a player gets a lot of extra volume and high-leverage looks but is in line for a role reduction with a starter returning. We can help account for that by relying on numberFire's fantasy football projections and projected rushing and target volume.

With all that out of the way, let's dig in.

Note: All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Week 12 Buy Low Wide Receiver Targets

Here are the top candidates whose Breakout Score is noticeably higher than their actual FanDuel points per game output over their last five games leading into Week 12.

Let's highlight a few names.

Michael Pittman Jr.

Michael Pittman Jr. led the Indianapolis Colts in target share against the New York Jets in Week 11 with Anthony Richardson back under center.

Pittman Jr. now has a 24.7% target share in three games with the Colts' primary skill players (Pittman Jr., Richardson, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Downs) healthy for 6.3 targets per game.

In that span, he's averaging 97.0 air yards per game -- but just 32.7 receiving yards per game.

This week, the Colts are at home (i.e. indoors) against a tough Detroit Lions team, which ranks first in adjusted pass defense. The total is 50.5 points, though, and Indianapolis still has a solid implied team total (21.5) early in the week.

Richardson has thrown to Pittman Jr., whose health is trending up after a full week of practice ahead of Week 11.

Tank Dell

Tank Dell has been a mainstay on this list, which isn't what we want as fantasy managers. However, the underlying data still remains great for Dell.

In Week 11, Dell saw a red zone carry and five downfield targets (10-plus air yards) on seven total targets. This was a telling game, as it's the first game since Stefon Diggs' injury with Nico Collins back.

Dell has underperformed on downfield throws this season (-35.2 yards over expected, via NextGenStats, on passes 10 or more yards downfield), so regression still lingers for Dell.

The Tennessee Titans funnel a top-five target-per-route rate to wideouts and own a better rush D (9th) than pass D (14th).

Xavier Worthy

Buying low on a wideout coming off of one of his best games of the season (14.8 FanDuel Points)? Yep. Here's why.

Xavier Worthy has had fewer than 4.0 FanDuel points in three of his last five games, so this is more a question of whether he can produce again -- or not.

Worthy, in Week 11, tied for a team high in targets (5), just a 16.7% share for the Kansas City Chiefs but also had a carry. Worthy has three carries in his last three games, as well.

The Carolina Panthers are 31st in adjusted pass defense, 31st in pressure rate, and 24th in yards per target allowed on downfield passes.

Patrick Mahomes should have time to take some deep shots to Worthy in Week 12.

Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston and the Los Angeles Chargers close out the week against the Baltimore Ravens in SoFi Stadium.

That means a dome, turf, and a bottom-tier adjusted pass defense (Baltimore is 27th).

The total here is 50.5 points with a tight spread, and this Chargers offense has really elevated its passing prowess since their Week 5 bye.

In Week 11, Johnston led the team in route rate (76.2%) and had 8 targets (7 downfield) and 165 air yards. The caveat? He caught just 2 balls for 48.

Baltimore is 23rd or worse in pressure rate, average depth of target allowed, and yards per target allowed on downfield passes.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.