Fantasy Football Buy Low: Running Back Breakout Candidates for Week 3

Whether you're deciding who to start in season-long, who to roster in NFL DFS, or which NFL prop bets to consider on FanDuel Sportsbook, there are still plenty of ways to buy low on players poised to bounce back from disappointing outings.

While looking ahead at the games across the NFL, which running backs should we buy low on ahead of this week?

All fantasy football projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Statistics mentioned are via NextGenStats or Pro Football Focus unless stated otherwise.

Running Backs to Buy Low in Fantasy Football

Chase Brown, Bengals

According to PFF's expected fantasy points, Chase Brown has been the biggest underperformer at the running back position, scoring only 19.6 fantasy points in half-PPR formats (compared to his 32.3 expected points). Despite the absence of Joe Burrow causing the ceiling of the Cincinnati Bengals' offense to decline tremendously, the volume is still there for Brown, and there could be even more usage headed his way with Jake Browning under center.

Although it's a different season and environment, Joe Mixon was the overall RB5 (RB8 in fantasy points per game) in half-PPR leagues in Week 12 through Week 18 of the 2023 campaign when Browning was the starting quarterback for the Bengals. Furthermore, the duo of Mixon and Brown -- who was a rookie at the time -- combined for a total of 32 receptions and 337 receiving yards on 40 targets over the seven-game span with Browning at quarterback.

Along with Browning being willing to target running backs and the Bengals likely trying to get the ball out quick to avoid disastrous plays, Brown has handled a 71.9% snap rate, 42.1% route rate, and an 87.5% red-zone rushing share while his only competition for backfield touches so far has been Samaje Perine.

Even though a matchup against the Minnesota Vikings doesn't seem ideal, they are 25th in scheduled-adjusted run defense in the two-week sample we have, and they are currently 26th in rushing yards over expected per attempt allowed (0.71) to running backs.

Jordan Mason, Vikings

On the other side of the Bengals-Vikings clash, Jordan Mason is primed for an expanded role for Minnesota due to veteran Aaron Jones heading to injured reserve due to a hamstring injury. While Mason may not be considered a buy-low candidate to some, he's been somewhat quiet as the running mate to Jones to begin the season, but his metrics stand out up to this point.

Aside from Mason having a 57.9% snap rate, 24.1% route rate, and 75.0% red-zone rushing share with 13.5 touches per game (compared to Jones tallying a 45.3% snap rate, 35.2% route rate, and 0.0% red-zone rushing share with 8.0 touches per game), he has the 15th-most rushing yards over expected per attempt (0.60) among qualified backs. Despite not having a high ceiling as a pass catcher, Mason is a talented runner, and his role in the red zone makes him extremely valuable in a Kevin O'Connell offense.

In addition to Jones being sidelined for the Vikings on Sunday, quarterback J.J. McCarthy is expected to miss time because of a sprained ankle, which could lead to the Vikings leaning on their ground game more. On top of expecting Cincy's defense to still be a below-average unit, Mason also doesn't have much competition for backfield touches sans Jones, as Minnesota's current backup is Zavier Scott, and they recently signed Cam Akers (again) to their practice squad.

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs

If Isiah Pacheco is unable to deliver a productive performance in Week 3 versus the New York Giants, when will he have a notable outing this season?

While Kareem Hunt is still going to garner carries in short-yardage situations, he's still an inefficient back who lacks explosiveness.

After seeing only a 48.3% snap rate, 36.2% route rate, and 7 touches in Week 1, Pacheco had a 59.6% snap rate, 47.4% route rate, and 11 touches in Week 2. Even though Pacheco has totaled only 57 scrimmage yards through the first two weeks, those games came against two elite run defenses (Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles).

As for this week, Pacheco and the Kansas City Chiefs face a Giants D that is 32nd in schedule-adjusted run defense so far, and Kansas City is favored on the road as they look to avoid falling to 0-3. Despite Pacheco not being a consistently effective back, he's the best option the Chiefs have right now, and they need to find something to take some pressure off Patrick Mahomes with the current receiver room they have.

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