Fantasy Football: 5 Receiver-Cornerback Matchups to Exploit in Week 4
Matchups are everything in the NFL, especially at the receiver position.
For fantasy purposes, being able to identify which receivers have advantageous (or disadvantageous) matchups is a sharp way to get a leg up on your opponent.
Each Friday I'll be listing out the best wide receiver-cornerback matchups for the upcoming week. It doesn't take a genius to tell you to start Justin Jefferson, but there will be weeks when some WR1s have better matchups and other weeks when typical WR2 or WR3s have matchups that bump them up in our weekly rankings.
But how do we know what to look for?
First, the numberFire (nF) Player Matchups chart helps to identify advantageous matchups for specific positions.
Then, we dive deeper into the specific cornerbacks. Pro Football Focus (PFF) Player Grades and their WR/CB Matchup chart are great starting points for identifying which specific matchups we want to target.
For receivers, the three key statistics we'll be citing are Target Share, average depth of target (aDOT), and Net Expected Points (NEP). For cornerbacks, we're mainly looking at the percentage of targets caught (REC%), Forced Incompletions per Target (FI%), and the opposing quarterbacks' NFL Passer Rating against them.
Projections and rankings via numberFire.
Week 4 Receiver-Cornerback Matchups
Puka Nacua (LAR)-Indianapolis Colts
numberFire Projection: 17.7 fantasy points (WR7)
- 6.6 receptions (9.9 targets)
- 74.5 receiving yards
- 71.5 receiving yards
Puka Nacua came back down to Earth in Week 3 after an outrageous two-week stretch to open his career.
After garnering a 39.3% target share in his first two games, Puka saw "only" 21.9% of looks in Week 3.
Although he wasn't the top option last week, Nacua still saw 7 targets and finished as the WR37 (9.7) in half-PPR scoring formats.
Sure, that was a disappointing output after Weeks 1 and 2, but the Cincinnati Bengals were a tough matchup for the Los Angeles Rams. Puka still played 96.3% of snaps and actually saw his aDOT climb to 9.9 (compared to 7.5 the first two weeks). Despite securing just 5 catches, Nacua still finished with 72 yards.
Things should get a lot easier for Puka and the Rams this week when they take on the Indianapolis Colts. Indianapolis has allowed the eighth-most (34.9) fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season, and Puka matches up extremely well against them.
The Colts do a good job keeping things in front of them (9.7 aDOT), but they have the second-lowest defensive success rate (48.9%) in the league. A lot of that is because of how much (bad) zone they run. Through three weeks, the Colts have used zone coverage on 86.3% of plays -- per Next Gen Stats -- the highest mark in the NFL.
That bodes extremely well for Puka's chances on Sunday. PFF has Nacua as the eighth-highest graded (84.9) receiver against zone. He's racked up a league-high 13 first downs against that scheme and is averaging 3.48 yards per route run (Y/RR) in the split -- compared to just 1.34 Y/RR against man.
Indy doesn't have the personnel to slow down Puka, either. Nacua lines up across the formation, so he'll spend time matched up with all three of Dallis Flowres (67.1 PFF coverage grade), Kenny Moore (67.5), and Julius Brents (89.3). Brents was impressive in his debut replacing Darrell Baker Jr. (healthy scratch), but he's still a rookie with limited experience.
With the Rams passing at the third-highest rate over expectation (5.3%), Nacua should again be peppered with targets on Sunday afternoon. He may not reach the 15 and 20 marks he saw the first two weeks, but something in the area of 10 to 12 is certainly in his range of outcomes.
Against a soft, zone-heavy Colts D, Puka Nacua is a safe WR1 with a ton of upside in full-PPR fantasy formats.
Christian Kirk (JAX)-Atlanta Falcons
numberFire Projection: 13.9 points (WR17)
- 5.2 receptions (7.1 targets)
- 63.9 receiving yards
- 4.5 receptions
- 52.5 receiving yards
What a difference two weeks makes, huh?
Christian Kirk looked borderline droppable in fantasy after playing 60.9% of snaps and seeing just 3 targets in Week 1, but he has since rebounded with Zay Jones banged up. Jones has been ruled out for Sunday's game in London, so with Kirk having a soft matchup on deck, we should be starting Kirk wherever we can.
After that dud in Week 1, Kirk has garnered a 24.7% target share and 26.7% air yard share across the last two weeks. He parlayed that usage into WR20 (16.5 points) and WR25 (13.4) finishes even with the Jacksonville Jaguars scoring just 26 combined points in a pair of losses.
That's encouraging for this week, especially with Kirk expected to see a ton of Dee Alford in London.
While the Falcons have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points (22.6) to opposing wide receivers, they have a glaring weakness in the slot.
Alford has struggled mightily thus far with a subpar 63.8 PFF coverage grade. While the two touchdowns he gave up to Jayden Reed in Week 2 really stand out and show the upside Kirk has against him, Alford has struggled all season.
Through three weeks, Alford has allowed 12 of 15 targets to be caught, and in turn, he has given up 118 yards receiving. However, perhaps most beneficial for Kirk is that opposing quarterbacks have a 139.0 passer rating when targetting Alford -- the 10th-highest for any cornerback.
Per Next Gen Stats, Atlanta runs the fourth-most man coverage (41.7%) in the league which, should pit Kirk up against Alford on numerous occasions this weekend. With no Zay Jones and Jacksonville desperately needing a win, I expect them to turn to Kirk early and often in an advantageous matchup.
Lock Kirk in as a WR2 with upside in Week 4.
Jakobi Meyers (LV)-Los Angeles Chargers
numberFire Projection: 13.2 points (WR23)
- 5.1 receptions (8.1 targets)
- 63.2 receiving yards
Jakobi Meyers has long been a good NFL wide receiver and has slotted in inside the top 40 in PFF receiving grade each of the last four seasons.
That didn't often translate to fantasy success with the New England Patriots, but the early results from his time with the Las Vegas Raiders have been encouraging to say the least.
Meyers has suited up for only two games thus far but didn't disappoint. Just look at these numbers:
- Week 1: 9 receptions, 81 yards, 38.5% target share, 24.6 fantasy points (WR3)
- Week 3: 7 receptions, 85 yards, 27.3% target share, 12.0 fantasy points (WR31)
A pair of scores in Week 1 propelled him to a WR3 finish, but he followed that up with another strong outing in Week 3, just without the touchdowns.
There is some concern with Meyers heading into Week 4 with Jimmy Garoppolo's status up in the air. However, even if Vegas is forced to start rookie Aidan O'Connell, the matchup here is too good to ignore.
Meyers and the Raiders take on the Los Angeles Chargers this week.
To say the Chargers have struggled to contain opposing wide receivers would be an understatement. LA is allowing -- the most fantasy points per game (47.3), the fourth-highest catch rate over expectation (9.3%), the second-most yards per route run (2.35), and the second-highest aDOT (13.4).
In short, if you're a wide receiver, you're going off against the Chargers.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Chargers run man at the ninth-highest rate (34.6%) in the league, so expect Meyers to spend time against J.C. Jackson (47.1 PFF coverage grade), Michael Davis (46.7), and Asante Samuel Jr. (73.1). Jackson and Davis have been two of the worst coverage corners in the league this season, per PFF. Even Samuel's favorable grade takes a hit when you see he's allowed a 76.5% reception percentage and a 113.4 passer rating.
With LA's main focus likely to be centered around Davante Adams, Meyers should have plenty of room to operate as Vegas' No. 2 option. Keep an eye on the quarterback situation, but if Garoppolo or O'Connell start you can safely start Jakobi Meyers as a WR3 with WR2 upside. If Brian Hoyer is under center, Meyers becomes less appealing.
Adam Thielen (CAR)-Minnesota Vikings
numberFire Projection: 12.2 points (WR31)
- 4.6 receptions (6.9 targets)
- 51.3 receiving yards
- 4.5 receptions
- 52.5 receiving yards
Adam Thielen has turned back the clock the past two games and has the right matchup to keep on rolling in Week 4.
After a 2.2-point dud in Week 1, Thielen has finished as the WR18 (16.9 points) and the WR4 (26.0) the past two weeks.
Over the last two weeks, Thielen has played 90.1% of the Carolina Panthers' snaps and amassed a 26.1% target share. While Thielen's standout performance last week came with Andy Dalton under center, I still have faith in his ability to produce with Bryce Young expected to return for the Panthers' matchup with the Minnesota Vikings.
That says more about how bad the Vikings have been than how well Young has played, but it's worth noting that Thielen's solid Week 2 performance came with Young at the helm.
Still, this is all about the Vikings. Through three weeks, Minnesota has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game (44.2) and the most yards per route run (2.42) to opposing receivers. We just saw Keenan Allen torch them for 18 receptions and 215 yards. Given how similar Thielen profiles to Allen, I wouldn't be surprised if the 33-year-old stays hot this week.
That isn't to say Thielen is on the same level as Allen, but that both have seen a majority of their snaps come from the slot.
Thielen played primarily out wide during his time in Minnesota but has transitioned seamlessly inside with Carolina. Consequently, he should spend the majority of his time matched up with Josh Metellus (72.9 PFF coverage grade) and Byron Murphy (47.6).
Allen absolutely cooked Murphy last week, catching all 6 of his targets for 85 yards and 4 first downs when defended by Murphy.
Metellus didn't have any better luck, giving up 3 receptions on 3 targets for 33 yards.
That said, it's not just Allen who has had success against the two. Both have allowed more than a 75% reception percentage and better than a 120 passer rating this season, and they've combined to force just three incompletions.
This Minnesota-Carolina matchup has by far the highest average pass% + pass rate over expectation (73.5) of the week, so expect a ton of looks coming Thielen's way. Add in an offense-friendly total (46.5) and the fact that the Panthers are 4.5-point home underdogs, and it's not hard to get excited about his chances in a negative game script.
At least for this week, Thielen is a high-upside WR3.
Tank Dell (HOU)-Pittsburgh Steelers
numberFire Projection: 10.32 points (WR40)
- 3.7 receptions (6.1 targets)
- 50.8 receiving yards
- 45.5 receiving yards
Ladies and gentlemen, Tank Dell has arrived.
The rookie third-round pick played just 45.8% of snaps in Week 1 and didn't produce much for fantasy managers.
Weeks 2 and 3? That's a different story.
In his last two games, Tank has quickly established himself as C.J. Stroud's go-to guy. Tank has commanded a 23.6% target share and played 71.1% of snaps in the last two weeks, finishing as the WR19 (16.7 points) and WR6 (23.0 points).
Dell has a great opportunity to continue his ascension this week when the Pittsburgh Steelers come to town.
Don't let the brand fool you, this is not a Steelers defense we should be afraid of in fantasy. Through three weeks, Pittsburgh has given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game (37.9) and the fourth-highest aDOT (12.1) to opposing wideouts.
With Dell averaging 4.0 downfield targets (10-plus yards) per game the last two weeks, it's not hard to imagine him getting loose for a few big gains.
That becomes even more conceivable when we take into account that Pittsburgh has been targetted deep 50 times thus far -- the highest mark in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats.
Tank spends time across the formation but will primarily line up out wide. This week, that will pit him against Levi Wallace (58.1 PPF coverage grade) and Patrick Peterson (72.7). The two haven't been bad this season, but they aren't locking anyone up, either. Wallace really struggled last week, giving up 8 receptions and 104 yards on 13 targets to Vegas' top two wideouts.
Dell also benefits from playing on a Houston team running the seventh-most plays per game (68.7) and playing in a game that's projected to be the weekend's third-fastest game in terms of projected pace (27.3).
We're in the business of buying into rookie receivers with expanding roles, and Dell fits the bill.
In a pretty neutral matchup, Dell should be played cautiously as a WR3 or FLEX, knowing that he has WR2 upside.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.