Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for Week 12
There's nothing quite like the NFL.
Football is one of the most intense, exciting sports on the planet. The source of the now-ubiquitous saying "Any Given Sunday," the NFL is a place where even struggling teams have a chance to topple the best in the league. Anything can happen when you play only 17 regular season games a year.
That uncertainty is a huge driver behind the excitement the NFL generates each and every season. What's more fun than watching something totally unexpected unfold before your eyes?
That's why, this year, we'll be bringing you some bold predictions to watch for in each week the 2024 NFL season.
All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
NFL Bold Predictions for Week 12
Bryce Young Surpasses 220 Passing Yards
Bryce Young, the Carolina Panthers' former No. 1 pick, has made some minor strides since taking back the starting role in Week 8. During this three-game span, the second-year quarterback is logging only 173.7 passing yards per contest, though.
This average is pretty much right in line with Young's projection for Sunday's matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs as our NFL projections have him at 174.4 passing yards (the lowest projection of the week). However, he could be a lot higher than most are expecting.
While Young logged only 148.5 passing yards per contest over his last two, Week 12's game script probably won't unfold the same way that those two games did. Carolina comes off back-to-back wins and had the luxury to run the ball at will in Week 10 to the tune of 32 rushing attempts. Week 9's 23 rushing attempts wasn't much, and that came a week after only 20 carries against the Denver Broncos.
I'm expecting Sunday's contest against the Chiefs to look similar to Carolina's Week 8 battle with Denver. Carolina found itself in 28-7 hole against the Broncos, leading to 37 passing attempts from Young. For reference, he's averaging only 25.5 passing attempts per contest over his last two. Kansas City is currently a 10.5-point favorite, suggesting another negative game script for the Panthers.
This one could get ugly, meaning Young could need to sit back and air it out. A healthy receiving corps should aid his numbers as
This narrative is further fueled by the Chiefs carrying the 15th-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense while holding the 4th-best adjusted rush defense.
We could get some value on Young's passing yards prop. Expect Sunday's outing to mirror Young's 224-yard showing against the Broncos.
Josh Downs Turns in a Top-10 Fantasy Outing
Josh Downs of the Indianapolis Colts has been on a heater over the last month of play, logging 14.2 fantasy points per game over four games. For reference, this would tie CeeDee Lamb for the eighth-most fantasy points per game in half-PPR leagues this season. Downs is producing like a top-10 fantasy wideout right now -- point blank, period.
While Indianapolis has a daunting matchup against the Detroit Lions this week, Downs can still produce. In fact, Detroit is tied for giving up the eighth-most FanDuel points per game against wideouts. The Lions have a good pass defense, ranking as the best adjusted unit, but opponents are averaging 232.7 passing yards per game (sixth-most). Much of this is due to opponents finding themselves in negative game scripts as Detroit carries the league's top point margin at +15.9 (second-most is +9.6).
Following Detroit's absurd 52-6 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, it could be more of the same this weekend as the Lions are 7.5-point favorites. Once again, it's probably wise to target an opposing team's passing attack against Detroit -- especially when it comes to fantasy football.
Anthony Richardson took over the starting QB job once again in Week 11 and impressed by totaling 0.28 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db). Still, Richardson feels like roulette at this point; who knows what we will get on a week-to-week basis. Still, Downs should find success.
His biggest competition for yards should be Alec Pierce, who racked up 77.5 receiving yards per game over his last two. However, Pierce makes his yards on big plays (22.7 yards per catch), and the Lions hold the fourth-lowest mark in yards allowed per deep target. Downs (6.9 yards) doesn't hold near the same average depth of target (aDOT) as Pierce (21.1).
Along with the opportunity to keep earning targets, Downs carries a juicy 50.0% red zone target share when Richardson plays in a full game. He's averaging 81.3 receiving yards per game over the last four, and that should continue on Sunday. Plus, Downs has scored two touchdowns over four games of action with Richardson slinging the rock.
Indianapolis' emerging receiver has produced two top-11 weekly finishes over the past four contests. Another top-10 finish is in the cards against the Lions, which would far surpass his current WR23 projection.
Jordan Love Finishes Outside of the Top-20 QBs
The Green Bay Packers have been a funky team. Despite carrying pretty much average marks across the board in adjusted rankings, they are 7-3. There are several categories that scream regression, such as sitting in the bottom 11 of third- and fourth-down conversion rates and the bottom six of red zone scoring rate.
Getting the San Francisco 49ers at +114 to win Sunday's matchup feels like one of the best values of the week. Sure, the Niners have been underwhelming at 5-5, but San Francisco's adjusted rankings are pretty darn good as they sit outside of the top 10 in only adjusted rush defense. As such, I'm expecting some disappointing results for the Packers in Week 12.
Jordan Love is one player worth fading. As mentioned, the 49ers' rush defense looks to be one of their clear weaknesses. Meanwhile, Green Bay touts the sixth-highest rush play rate. The Packers could mostly look to keep it on the ground, especially with San Fran giving up only 6.5 yards per passing attempt (fifth-fewest). As long as Green Bay doesn't trail big -- which is unlikely thanks to a 1.5-point spread -- Love's attempts could be down.
Jordan Love - Passing Yds
That's been the case in Love's past three outings as he's notched 22 or fewer passing attempts in two contests (32.1 season-average). He was fortunate to finish as QB11 in fantasy last week thanks to a rushing touchdown -- which was his first of the season. The 49ers also force the eighth-most takeaways per contest, and Love has thrown 11 interceptions in eight games.
In Week 8 and Week 9, Love finished as QB33 and QB23. Finishing outside the top-20 QBs in fantasy feels likely yet again as San Francisco yields the ninth-fewest FanDuel points per game to signal-callers.
Puka Nacua Falls Under 50 Receiving Yards
Since returning from injury in Week 8, Puka Nacua has logged at least 98 receiving yards in three of four games. He turned in his best performance yet in Week 11, totaling 123 receiving yards and 17.6 yards per catch.
Our NFL DFS projections have Puka totaling the third-most receiving yards this week at 80.5 yards. However, this is a worthy fade considering who Nacua will be lining up against.
The Philadelphia Eagles have emerged as a legit contender in NFC, carrying the second-shortest odds to win the conference (+350). Right now, the Eagles are viewed as the only true competition for the Lions (+160) to win the NFC. With that said, Philly's defense has been dominant, holding opponents to only 17.9 points per game (sixth-fewest) and 4.7 yards per play (second-fewest).
What the Eagles have done against the pass should be highlighted until the cows come home as they are allowing only 6.1 yards per passing attempt (the fewest) while holding the third-best ranking in adjusted pass defense. Philadelphia has given up the sixth-fewest FanDuel points per against wide receivers and have done a masterful job of limiting top wideouts in recent games.
Puka Nacua - Receiving Yds
For example, Terry McLaurin (10 receiving yards), CeeDee Lamb (21 receiving yards), Ja'Marr Chase (54 receiving yards), and Malik Nabers (41 receiving yards) all posted underwhelming marks against this defense in the last month of play. Cornerbacks Darius Slay (71.8 coverage grade) and Quinyon Mitchell (73.2 coverage grade) have each posted solid coverage grades at Pro Football Focus.
A fearsome pass rush only adds to the Los Angeles Rams' concerns for feeding their top receiver. The Eagles carry the 2nd-highest PFF pass rushing grade paired with the 10th-highest sack rate. L.A. owns the third-worst PFF pass blocking grade; Matthew Stafford may lack the time to push the ball down field to Nacua (aDOT is 10.7 yards).
Considering Philly's numbers against top receivers, Puka is trending toward finishing under his receiving yards prop (72.5) and projection (80.2).
New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.
Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.