FanDuel Pitching Primer: Monday 6/26/23
Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.
While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.
Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup, and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's slate.
All betting references come from the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Top Options
Spencer Strider ($11,300)
Even on a pretty stout pitching slate, it will be difficult to pick anyone but Spencer Strider for DFS lineups on Monday. The Atlanta Braves' hurler has as good of a matchup as anyone as he gets the chance to pitch against the Minnesota Twins.
Strider has been great this season, even if his on-the-surface numbers say otherwise. His 3.93 ERA isn't that amazing, but his skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) of 2.71 is the best in baseball. He's also striking out hitters at a higher rate than anyone in the league with a gaudy 39.0% strikeout rate -- 6.4 percentage points better than the second-best starter's (Shohei Ohtani).
Pairing these numbers with a Twins matchup only makes him that much better of an option as Strider will take on a lineup with the highest strikeout rate in baseball (27.0%).
That sets up the Braves' righty for a big day, and he's understandably the top option on FanDuel.
Luis Castillo ($10,600)
Luis Castillo has been elite this season and comes into Monday as another top option for lineups.
Castillo is rocking a 28.6% strikeout rate -- sixth-best in the majors -- to go along with an impressive 3.58 SIERA. The Seattle Mariners have leaned on Castillo at the top of their rotation as opposing hitters have just a .201 batting average against him, which ranks fourth.
The matchup against the weak Washington Nationals doesn't hurt things. The Nationals don't strike out a lot, sporting the lowest strikeout rate in the league (18.4%), which is a bummer, but their .312 weighted on-base average (wOBA) is only 20th while their 93 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) is 22nd.
The Nats' 2.99 implied total is the lowest of the day, and Seattle is a -260 moneyline favorite.
Castillo could have a huge day on Monday.
Value Plays
Reid Detmers ($8,500)
Reid Detmers is the best value of the day.
While his season-long statistics haven't been anything to write home about, the Los Angeles Angels' pitcher has been on fire in the month of June. In 23 2/3 innings this month, Detmers is holding hitters to a .242 wOBA and .188 batting average. The June hard-hit rate against Detmers is only 25.0%, as well,
Dude has been dealing, and he's set up for a good performance against the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox's .287 wOBA is the fourth-lowest in the league.
numberFire has Detmers with the second-highest projection total at 36.1 fantasy points, and he's the premier point-per-dollar play tonight.
Justin Verlander ($8,100)
Justin Verlander has not looked like himself this season as the reigning AL Cy Young winner has struggled a bit in his first year with the New York Mets.
Verlander's season has featured an interesting pattern as every other start has been good while the others have been not-so-good. In nine starts this season, he's allowed only one run four times while surrendering at least four runs on four occasions.
The Mets' starter has a swinging-strike rate of 9.7% which is his worst since 2014. Verlander's 4.32 SIERA is his worst since 2008. Kicking off the season injured certainly didn't spell a good start for him in New York, but he can turn that around with the Milwaukee Brewers in his sights.
The Brewers strike out almost as much as any team in baseball, ranking third in strikeout rate at 25.8%. Their .298 wOBA is fifth-lowest.
Milwaukee's 3.74 implied total is the third-worst on the slate and should set up Verlander for one of his best starts this year.
Tournament Options
Dylan Cease ($9,600)
The masses will likely either find the coin for Strider and Castillo or take the savings with Verlander or Detmers, which makes the midrange a savvy place to look for tournament options.
Dylan Cease is one of the more streaky pitchers in DFS, but he is absolutely an option we need to consider today in spite of a difficult matchup with the Angels.
Cease is getting hit hard this season with a 36.0% hard-hit rate. That pairs with a 26.9% strikeout rate that is lower than what he's produced in previous seasons
But he can be as good as anyone when he's on, and he's been on of late, with a 36.0% strikeout rate and 17.0% swinging-strike rate across his last five outings.
Against an Angels team that has the fourth-best wOBA (.337) and fourth-most home runs (115), Cease will need his best stuff, but if he has it, he can deliver in any matchup. Plus, he'll surely be overlooked tonight given the other options who are available to us.
numberFire's model has Cease projected for 28.7 FanDuel points.
Andrew Heaney ($9,200)
Texas Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney is a little like Cease -- he shows ace-level stuff when he's on but isn't on enough.
Heaney hasn't had the same success he did a season ago with the Los Angeles Dodgers but remains a good option based on an ideal matchup. The left-handed starter has a 4.31 SIERA and a 4.90 FIP this season, both much higher than his 2.46 SIERA and 3.75 FIP from last season.
The good news for Heaney is that the Detroit Tigers are one of the worst offenses in the sport. Detroit has the second-lowest wOBA at .292, with only the 20-win Oakland Athletics below that mark. The Tigers have the fourth-worst implied total of the day (3.83).
The Rangers are -205 favorites in today's matchup, and with a 25.3% strikeout rate and 14.2% swinging-strike rate over his last four starts, Heaney has the ability to overwhelm Detroit if he's locked in.
Sonny Gray ($10,100)
Sonny Gray continues to deliver this season for the Twins.
Gray has been one of the craftiest pitchers in baseball as his work to get hitters out focuses on limiting good contact while also putting together solid strikeout numbers.
The Twins starter ranks 13th with a 46.8% ground-ball rate and is tied for the 9th-lowest in fly-ball rate at 31.1%. Gray trails just Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen in fielding independent pitching (FIP) at 2.70.
Taking on the Atlanta Braves, Gray surely won't be popular, but with how he has worked this season, there's no doubt he is someone worth considering. Atlanta's 43.9% ground-ball rate is the eighth-highest and is something that meshes well with Gray's strengths.
numberFire has Gray looking at 27.6 projected FanDuel points.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.