FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Wednesday 2/28/24
Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!
As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. Our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- update throughout the day to reflect current news. You can also turn to numberFire for player news updates as well as a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.
On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.
Betting lines via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and betting odds may change after this article is published.
NBA DFS Picks
Wednesday's main slate on FanDuel features six games but some dramatically different game environments.
For a full breakdown, see numberFire's matchup heat map.
Top matchups:
- Dallas Mavericks @ Toronto Raptors | +3, 239 total
- New Orleans Pelicans @ Indiana Pacers | -6.5, 237.5 total
- Los Angeles Lakers @ Los Angeles Clippers | -3.5, 234.5 total
- Sacramento Kings @ Denver Nuggets | -8, 230.5 total
Other games:
- Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls | +5.5, 216.5 total
- Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves | -12, 209 total
Guards
Top Plays
Luka Doncic ($12,400) -- Luka Doncic: destroyer of worlds was on full display last night. Doncic went for 45 points, 9 rebounds, 14 assists, and 84.8 FanDuel points (FPs) in a loss to Cleveland -- somehow just his fourth-best fantasy output of the year. Tonight's matchup is ripe for another ceiling game. The Raptors are 27th in defensive rating over their last 15 games and -- per FantasyPros -- they've allowed the ninth-most FPPG to PGs over that span. I'm not too worried about this being the second leg of a back-to-back, either. In six previous games with no rest, Luka averaged 59.5 FPPG -- right in line with his season average (61.2).
Immanuel Quickley ($7,100) -- The middle-class guards are pretty suspect tonight, but I can get behind Immanuel Quickley at $7.1K. Quickley has come out of the All-Star break red-hot, totaling 44.7, 36.9, and 34.2 FPs. Mavs-Raptors has the slate's highest over/under (239), and he'll benefit from Dallas playing the second leg of their back-to-back. The Mavericks have allowed 118.1 points per game on zero rest this season, up substantially from their season-average (112.1).
Norman Powell ($4,800) -- No Paul George for the Clippers tonight. That puts Norman Powell in a great spot to outproduce his salary. According to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ, Powell has averaged 28.7 FPPG via a 20.5% usage rate in four games without PG. The Lakers have dipped to 19th in defensive rating this month, and they've been a fantasy-friendly matchup for off-ball wings all year. Powell's 28.8-FP numberFire projection makes him the top point-per-dollar value on the slate (6.0 per $1,000).
Others to Consider
James Harden ($9,000) -- Paul George's absence makes several Clippers appealing, but no one benefits from him sitting quite like James Harden does. In four previous games sans George, Harden has averaged 51.4 FPPG and posted a 24.5% usage rate. Even with PG in the lineup, he went for 45.4 FanDuel points against the Lakers last month. That feels like the floor today given the Lakers' lack of perimeter defenders and Harden's expanded usage.
Terance Mann ($5,000) -- Terance Mann has averaged just 16.2 FPPG in George's absences, but he's exceeded 20 FPs in four straight and played 39 minutes in the Clips' most recent outing. His dual-eligibility and consistent playing time make him a quality value tonight.
Jordan Goodwin ($4,400) -- In larger tournaments, Jordan Goodwin has upside. Memphis has a lengthy injury report once again, and Goodwin popped for 24.1 and 27.9 FPs in their two games before the All-Star break. He's yet to see the court in two games since, but he projects well with Luke Kennard out. Per numberFire's projections, Goodwin is the top-point-per-dollar value among PGs, projected for 25.1 FPs (5.7 per $1,000).
Wings
Top Plays
Kawhi Leonard ($9,200) -- The last -- but certainly not least -- Clipper I'm interested in tonight is Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi, too, has seen an uptick sans Paul George, averaging 52 FPPG and a 30% usage rate with him out of the lineup. Leonard is fresh off a pair of 45-FP outings coming into tonight's date with the Lakers -- a team he dropped 25 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists against just last month. The Lakers have given up the fourth-most FPPG to SFs over their last 15, making Leonard my favorite high-salary wing to target.
RJ Barrett ($7,200) -- Like guard, wing feels like a "stars and scrubs" kind of night for the position. Yet, also like guard, the mid-range wing to target comes courtesy of Toronto. RJ Barrett continues to operate as a high-level scorer, but his periphery stats are the key to his fantasy potential tonight. In 21 games for the Raptors, Barrett has averaged 20.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 3.8 assists -- all career-best numbers. Dallas' perimeter defense is solid, but Barrett benefits from the Mavs playing their second game in as many days.
Trey Murphy ($5,800) -- Trey Murphy III exploded for 43.4 FPs last night, and I'm bullish he stays hot in a pace-up spot with Indiana. It's only a two-game sample, but Murphy is now averaging 36.7 FPPG when C.J. McCollum sits. McCollum has already been ruled out tonight, so Murphy is uber-appealing at a manageable salary in a top game environment.
Others to Consider
Brandon Ingram ($8,000) -- Brandon Ingram has averaged just shy of 40 FPPG when C.J. McCollum sits, but there's upside for more given tonight's matchup. The Pacers are down at 24th in defensive rating over their last 15 games, and they've given up the sixth-most FPPG to SFs on the year.
Bennedict Mathurin ($6,300) -- Bennedict Mathurin has come out of the All-Star break scorching-hot, putting up 30.7, 41.7, and 59.3 FPs over Indiana's three games. The potential return of Aaron Nesmith could relegate Mathurin back to the bench, but Mathurin should still handle a sizable workload given his recent play.
Jaden McDaniels ($4,100) -- Jaden McDaniels' production remains inconsistent, but he continues to see a heavy dose of minutes. He'd benefit from Karl-Anthony Towns (questionable) sitting again, but he is a quality value play regardless with Kyle Anderson already ruled out. McDaniels went for 21.5 FPs yesterday despite scoring just 2 real-world points.
Bigs
Top Plays
Nikola Jokic ($12,500) -- Nikola Jokic is worth building around, even in a tough matchup with Sacramento. The Kings have already beaten the Nuggets three times this season while Jokic's production has been all over the place in those three clashes. He exploded for 81.6 FPs against them early in the year but went for just 51.1 and 36 FPs in two prior matchups this month. That said, I'm inclined to ride his recent production. Over Jokic's last three games, he's posted 66.3, 75, and 88.2 FPs.
Zion Williamson ($8,700) -- Zion Williamson is coming off a quiet outing but averaged 49.9 FPPG in his previous four outings. Zion has averaged 40.3 FPPG and posted a 31% usage rate with C.J. McCollum out of the lineup, and the matchup is there for a ceiling game. Indiana has given up the second-most FPPG to PFs and plays at the second-fastest pace. The Pacers also surrender the most paint points per night and permit the most shots from within five feet of the rim.
Aaron Gordon ($6,400) -- Aaron Gordon is a lovely stacking partner for Jokic-based lineups, but he's a strong mid-range play even on his own. Gordon went for 25 real-world points and 15 rebounds when he faced Sacramento before the All-Star break -- a developing trend for opposing forwards. Sacramento is bottom 10 in FPs allowed to PFS over their last 15 games, and they're down to 25th in defensive rating over that span.
Others to Consider
Domantas Sabonis ($10,600) -- Domantas Sabonis has consistently produced against Denver, scoring 46.5, 52.4, and 50.1 FPs in three prior matchups this season. That's nothing new for Sabonis -- he's exceeded 50 FPs in 11 of his last 13 games. I question the ceiling here given the matchup, but it's hard to argue with that consistency. A Jokic-Sabonis game stack requires a lot of salary but could break the slate if the game turns into a shootout.
Naz Reid ($5,800) -- Naz Reid put up 22 real-world points and 37.7 FPs in 32 minutes last night. That was his first 30-minute game since early January, and it coincided with Karl-Anthony Towns' absence. If KAT misses again tonight, Reid is a strong play against Memphis, and there's a chance for blowout minutes with Minny an 11.0-point home favorite.
PJ Washington ($5,000) -- PJ Washington's salary remains peculiarly low given his consistent playing time. Washington has averaged 30.8 minutes per game since arriving in Dallas, and he just went for 28.4 FPs last night. Toronto has been a fantasy goldmine over the last month, so I can also get behind Maxi Kleber ($4,100) in the same matchup. The production hasn't been there of late, but Maxi's played at least 23 minutes in each of his last nine appearances. Dallas' 119.75-point implied total against Toronto's porous defense should allow multiple Mavericks to thrive.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.