FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Tuesday 1/30/24
Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!
As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.
On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.
NBA DFS Picks
Guards
Top Plays
Trae Young ($10,200) -- Trae Young exceeded 50 FanDuel points (FPs) in each of his two games since returning from a concussion, and he could see an even heavier workload with Dejounte Murray (hamstring) questionable tonight. Young is in a good spot to produce even if Murray plays as the Los Angeles Lakers have sunk to 23rd in defensive rating over their last 15 games. They've given up the most threes to point guards over that span, per FantasyPros. It helps that LA is in the second leg of back-to-back, and that the Atlanta Hawks have a slate-leading 126 implied total.
Coby White ($7,700) -- With Zach LaVine (ankle) sidelined the last four games, Coby White has averaged 38.6 FPs. According to RotoGrinders' Court IQ, White is now averaging 38 FPs and a 24% usage rate with LaVine out of the lineup. That usage gives him a strong opportunity to produce against the Toronto Raptors tonight. Toronto has plummeted to 28th in defensive rating over their last 15 games, and they've given up the seventh-most FPs to PGs over that span. numberFire projects White for 39.6 FPs; as of Tuesday afternoon, he's the top point-per-dollar value among PGs.
Gary Trent ($5,100) -- Immanuel Quickley is doubtful tonight, so we can confidently turn to Gary Trent Jr. as a low-salary option. Trent has his fair share of duds, but he's averaged 25.7 minutes and 18 FPs through 12 January contests, exceeding 20 FPs five times in that sample. The Chicago Bulls have done well against SGs, and I don't want too much exposure to a slate-low 227.5-point over/under, but value guards are few and far between tonight. Opportunity gives Trent upside.
Others to Consider
Tyrese Haliburton ($10,700) -- Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) plans to play tonight after missing 10 of Indiana's last 11 games. There's obvious upside here -- even against the Boston Celtics -- but there's a degree of risk involved given the nature of hamstring injuries. Still, he didn't miss a beat when he previously returned, going for 48.9 FPs in 34 minutes six games back. I'd still rather hold off until he has a game or two under his belt.
D'Angelo Russell ($7,900) -- D'Angelo Russell stayed hot last night, exceeding 20 points for the eighth time in nine games. His salary continues to rise as a result, but the matchup is good enough for him to provide value tonight. This Lakers-Hawks bout has a slate-high 248-point over/under. Meanwhile, Atlanta has given up the sixth-most FPs to opposing SGs.
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,800) -- I'd love Bogdan Bogdanovic tonight if Dejounte Murray were ruled out, but he has a chance to produce regardless given the plus matchup with LA. Over their last 15 games, the Lakers have given up the second-most threes and the eighth-highest three-point field goal percentage. They've bled FanDuel points to wings over that span, allowing the third-most FPs to SGs and second-most to SFs.
Quentin Grimes ($4,600) -- Quentin Grimes saw his second-most minutes of the season in the New York Knicks' first full game without Julius Randle last night. While he only totaled 12.4 FPs, that kind of workload is exactly what we're looking for in a $4,600 player. A healthy 117.25 implied total against a suspect Utah Jazz defense only aids his cause.
Wings
Top Plays
Jayson Tatum ($10,000) -- In three prior matchups with the Pacers, Jayson Tatum averaged 55.5 FPs per game. Indiana has been a dream match for opposing forwards this season, ranking in the bottom 10 in FPs allowed to both positions. On top of that, they're just 26th in defensive rating on the season and 2nd in pace. Tatum's production can fluctuate given Boston's plethora of high-profile players, but his ceiling remains elite. A 245-point over/under should allow multiple Celtics to thrive.
Josh Hart ($6,000) -- Both Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo ($6,100) impressed in their first game with Julius Randle sidelined, notching 31.9 and 43.7 FPs, respectively. DiVincenzo's 28 points were impressive, but Hart's multiple contributions (8 points, 12 rebounds, and 7 assists) are likely more sustainable on a night-to-night basis. Still, both are in play for DFS tonight. The Jazz rank 19th in defensive rating but 1st in pace over their last 15 games. They've given up the 10th-most FPs to SFs over that span. They're both among the five best point-per-dollar values on the board, according to numberFire projections.
Rui Hachimura ($4,600) -- Targeting low-salary role players in high-scoring game environments is a great way to open up your lineup, Rui Hachimura fits the bill tonight. Rui has averaged 18.5 FPs over his last nine games, exceeding 20 FPs four times over that span. He'd get a bump up if either LeBron James or Anthony Davis were out, but the matchup is there regardless. Atlanta is bottom 10 in FPs allowed to both forward spots, and they're 27th in defensive rating overall.
Others to Consider
DeMar DeRozan ($8,100) -- DeMar DeRozan has averaged 43.4 FPs in three prior meetings with Toronto -- a number that could grow with Zach LaVine still out tonight. In 21 games without LaVine, DeRozan put up 41.6 FPs in 38 minutes a night, registering a 25% usage rate in the process. A low over/under caps his upside, but the Raptors have regressed dramatically on defense of late. Over their last 15 games, they've given up the second-most points and fourth-most FPs to SFs
Jonathan Kuminga ($6,900) -- Jonathan Kuminga is beginning to figure it out, averaging 25 points 6.7 rebounds, and 38.7 FPs over his last six games. The Philadelphia 76ers aren't an easy matchup, but they've dipped to 20th in defensive rating over their last 15 games, and the Golden State Warriors are at home.
Kelly Oubre ($5,800) -- Despite an 0-5 showing from three, Kelly Oubre still managed 32.7 FPs last night and notched 25 points for the second straight game. The Sixers won't force-feed him 20 shots if everyone's healthy, but the matchup is still there for him to produce at this salary. The Warriors have plummeted to 30th in defensive rating over their last 15 games, and they've given up the most FPs to SFs over that span.
De'Andre Hunter ($4,400) -- De'Andre Hunter (knee) has a chance to play for the first time since December 20th, and he's certainly appealing at this salary. Hunter averaged 14.9 points, 30.3 minutes, and 24 FPs prior to his injury, and even a low-20-minute workload would allow him to outproduce his salary. A high total -- and the Lakers allowing the seventh-most FPs to SFs -- gives him upside.
Bigs
Top Plays
Joel Embiid ($12,300) -- Joel Embiid sat out the last two games, but he remains the top option on the board if he plays. Tonight's matchup with Golden State is about as good as it gets; over their last 15 games, the Warriors are dead last in defensive rating, and they gave up 29 points and 13 rebounds to Anthony Davis in their most recent outing. If Embiid is ruled out late, Paul Reed ($6,100) is a fine late swap, and you could use the extra salary to upgrade another position. Reed has gone for 82.8 FPs across the last two games without Embiid. If you're rostering Embiid, I'd pair him with a mid-range guard in the same game, freeing you to swap to Stephen Curry or Tyrese Maxey if the reigning MVP sits.
Pascal Siakam ($8,300) -- It took a few games, but Pascal Siakam looks awfully comfortable in a Pacer uniform. Over his last three games, Siakam averaged 25.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 48.1 FPs per game. This will be his fifth matchup with Boston after posting 37 FP per game in four prior meetings. That gives him a solid floor, but the high over/under and pending return of Tyrese Haliburton keeps his ceiling plenty high.
Precious Achiuwa ($5,900) -- Precious Achiuwa only went for 18 FP in his first start of the season yesterday, but his 32 minutes were an encouraging sign going forward. Achiuwa had gone for 20 FPs in three of his previous four games, so there's a decent enough floor in tonight's matchup with Utah. The Jazz are on the second leg of a back-to-back after giving up 147 points yesterday, and they've given up the most FP per game to opposing PFs on the season.
Others to Consider
Nikola Vucevic ($7,900) -- Don't let the slate's lowest over/under turn you away from Nikola Vucevic. With Zach LaVine out of the lineup, 'Vuc has averaged 39.9 FPs and seen a 24% usage rate. Tonight's matchup bodes well for him considering the Raptors rank 29th in rebound rate and have given up the ninth-most points to centers over their last 15 games. Vucevic's 41.6-FP numberFire projection is the highest of any player salaried under $9,000.
Andrew Wiggins ($5,600) -- Color me intrigued with Andrew Wiggins. After sleepwalking through the first few months of the season, Wiggins has come on strong of late. Over his last six games, Wiggins has averaged 15.6 points, 32.6 minutes, and 28.9 FP per game. This is a modest salary to see if he keeps it up.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.