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FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 7/27/23

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We're getting one of those light Thursday slates, with just three games making up tonight's main offering. While that likely means a fairly tight core at pitcher, it may not be a bad idea to think outside the box for stacks.

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

While the risk that comes with rostering Kodai Senga ($10,600) is pretty clear at this point, this feels like the right slate and matchup to make him our first choice tonight. His 29.7% strikeout rate is the best on the board, and that's especially notable when just one other pitcher has a rate above 25% tonight.

That aforementioned risk is Senga's 11.9% walk rate, easily the worst among the night's six pitchers. However, it's possible he's turned a corner in that department, as he's logged just a 7.0% walk rate over his last six starts.

Although the Washington Nationals has performed much better at the plate lately, this matchup is a net positive overall for Kodai. Against right-handed pitching this year, Washington's active roster owns an 89 wRC+, .138 ISO, and 6.1% walk rate. The lone issue is that they're a low-strikeout opponent with an 18.6% strikeout rate in that split.

That punchout rate may be a negative, but I'm less concerned about it when it comes to Kodai because when he keeps the free passes in check, he can rack up the Ks against any opponent. And given the Nats' minuscule walk rate, finding the plate shouldn't be an issue for him tonight.

Washington's predominantly left-handed lineup could be a surprise boost for the right-hander, too, as he has an excellent 3.32 xFIP, 31.5% strikeout rate, and 50.5% ground-ball rate facing lefties. That's of particular note on a hot, humid, and windy evening that could aid hitters at Citi Field.

Finally, prior to a rain-shorted start his last time out, Senga cracked 100 pitches in four straight starts, so the workload also checks out. Everything lines up well for the righty to excel on Thursday night.

After Senga, Tanner Bibee ($9,600) and Dylan Cease ($9,400) are the primary alternatives, and they just so happen to be facing one another in the same game.

But of the two, Bibee has the better matchup against the Chicago White Sox's offense. Despite getting to Marcus Stroman yesterday, Chicago's active roster is tied with the Nats for the fifth-worst wRC+ (89) versus righties.

The rookie's metrics don't fly off the page, but he's put together a solid 4.19 SIERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, and 8.4% walk rate over 15 starts, and if we buy into his Statcast quality of contact numbers, his 3.23 xERA is even more promising.

Bibee is coming off one of his best fantasy performances, as well, after recording a season-high 55 FanDuel points versus the Philadelphia Phillies.

Cease has the slate's second-best strikeout rate (28.0%), but what holds him back is an upside-sapping Cleveland Guardians team.

While Cleveland isn't the most powerful offense, their active roster is above-average overall and has the league's lowest strikeout rate versus right-handers (17.1%). Cease's strikeout rate drops to 24.1% when facing lefties, which could be an additional issue against what should be a lefty-heavy lineup.

Add in that Cease has a less-than-ideal 9.6% walk rate, and he definitely has some hurdles to overcome to lead this slate in scoring.

Still, the righty has popped for big scores in difficult matchups before, and on a limited slate, his firepower keeps him in play.

Justin Steele ($10,000) will presumably be the overlooked guy of these four, which is enough reason to consider him as a contrarian play despite a repeat matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Steele did pile up 9 strikeouts and 50 FanDuel points in their meeting last week, though, and the bottom half of this Cardinals lineup looks rather susceptible to punchouts these days. While Steele's 22.7% strikeout rate is merely average, his 49.3% ground-ball rate is a plus, and he's logged quality starts in four of his last five starts.

Hitting Breakdown

Just two of our six pitchers didn't get a mention in the pitching section, so you probably have a good idea where they land tonight.

The New York Mets boast a slate-best 5.17 implied team total, and they figure to be the chalk stack against Josiah Gray. While Gray has significantly reduced the number of home runs he allows, his profile doesn't look like one of a guy who deserves his 3.45 ERA.

Underneath that mark, Gray's posted a 4.92 SIERA, 20.0% strikeout rate, and 10.4% walk rate, and while he's not allowing as much hard contact as before, his 4.53 xERA isn't anything special, either.

Gray continues to appear due for regression versus both righties and lefties, but that may be especially the case when facing lefties, against whom he's showing a 5.21 xFIP, 21.4% strikeout rate, 13.9% walk rate, and 42.9% fly-ball rate. The right-hander has allowed more home runs in same-sided matchups, though, and his 18.7% strikeout rate further means we can attack him with all comers.

Right-handed slugger Pete Alonso ($3,800) is our first building block, and those lefty splits give us all the most reason to roster Francisco Lindor ($3,700) and Brandon Nimmo ($3,400). Tommy Pham ($2,800) and Francisco Alvarez ($3,100) have both exhibited nice power and stand out amongst the lower-salaried plays.

As noted earlier, the hitter-friendly weather in New York will only help boost the Mets even more.

Miles Mikolas is the other pitcher who didn't make the cut earlier, and that's due to his slate-low 15.8% strikeout rate and an uninspiring 4.79 SIERA. That props up the Chicago Cubs as the other top stack. Temperatures could get up around 100 degrees in St. Louis, too.

Mikolas isn't getting many strikeouts or grounders against either side of the plate, so this is another case where we don't need to be too picky about our hitters.

It's no secret Cody Bellinger ($4,200) is completely locked in at the plate, and he's an obvious go-to option if you can fit him in. Christopher Morel ($3,800) is a perfect fit for this type of matchup, as his 32.0% strikeout rate is far less of a concern when facing someone like Mikolas.

On the value end, Mike Tauchman ($3,000), Ian Happ ($3,000), and Seiya Suzuki ($2,800) give us plenty of choices, and Dansby Swanson ($3,300) comes at a mid-range salary, as well.

On this small a slate, you can make the case that any team is worth stacking if you make enough lineups -- it's baseball after all -- but if we're coming up with a third stack, the Guardians might be the next-best. With Cease being less formidable versus lefties with a 4.37 xFIP, 24.1% strikeout rate, and 33.7% ground-ball rate, guys like Jose Ramirez ($3,900) and Josh Naylor ($3,500) might be able to get to him.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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