FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 7/28/23
Like most Fridays, we have a massive MLB slate on tap, with tonight's main offering coming in at a whopping 14 games. That means we'll have our work cut out for us to determine our favorite spots, but it should be a fun one to dive into.
Note that there's potential rain to monitor in Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Chicago. It's too early to say whether any are in true danger of getting washed out, but they're spots to keep an eye on.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
As you would expect on a large slate, we have quite a few enticing names taking the mound on Friday night, but Kevin Gausman ($10,900) is the first guy I'm drawn to.
Enjoying yet another fine campaign, Gausman ranks second among qualified starters in both strikeout rate (32.9%) and SIERA (3.00), and it's no wonder he's tied for the second-shortest AL Cy Young odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
One potential concern, though, is that Gausman recently needed extra rest due to an oblique issue, and he wasn't at his best last week versus the Seattle Mariners, showing reduced velocity while giving up four solo shots.
Although that may seem like a glaring red flag, he also recorded nine strikeouts and zero walks in that start -- his 16.1% swinging-strike rate was his fifth-best mark all year -- and we've seen Gausman's velocity dip for the occasional start before. It's premature to assume he's less than 100%.
With that in mind, we should feel pretty good about rostering him versus the Los Angeles Angels despite it being a tougher matchup. Even sans Mike Trout, the Angels' active roster boasts a 114 wRC+ and .203 ISO versus righties, and facing that Shohei Ohtani guy is no picnic.
But the Angels also have a 23.4% strikeout rate in that split, so this isn't a bad opponent for strikeouts, and of Gausman's seven starts with double-digit strikeouts, six have come at home -- which is where he'll be tonight.
The Halos' 3.66 implied team total is one of the night's lowest, as well.
Beyond Gausman, you can make the case for any of the guys above $10,500 between Gerrit Cole ($11,000), Max Scherzer ($10,800), Zack Wheeler ($10,600), and Logan Webb ($10,500) -- though keep in mind that both Cole and Wheeler could have potential rain issues.
But if the weather permits, Wheeler is next on my list in his spot versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. While the Pirates still possess some pop, their active roster is up to a 25.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching, making this an ideal matchup for Wheeler to have a ceiling game.
The 33-year-old may not quite have an elite strikeout rate (27.1%), but an efficient 4.6% walk rate and a workload that regularly exceeds 100 pitches always give him a strong chance of pitching deep into games.
Cole is also intriguing if his game plays without issue, but it'll be hot, humid, and windy at Camden Yards, which could leave him open to some dingers. While Cole hasn't allowed many home runs this season, an uncharacteristically low 9.9% homer-to-fly-ball rate suggests he could be due for regression.
Between that, a neutral matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, and a lower strikeout rate (27.6%) than Gausman, I feel comfortable placing Cole behind Gausman and Wheeler at his slate-high salary.
If we lose Wheeler and Cole to weather, that leaves us with Scherzer and Webb as strong consolation prizes.
Scherzer should be able to get the job done against the light-hitting Washington Nationals -- but I worry about his ceiling. Not only does the Nats' active roster have an 18.6% strikeout rate versus righties, but their lefty-heavy lineup isn't ideal for Scherzer, who's been far less effective in the split this season. For the year, he has just a 5.06 xFIP and 22.4% strikeout rate versus lefties.
Therefore, I might lean Webb between the two. The Boston Red Sox are by no means a cupcake matchup for strikeouts, either, but Webb's appeal comes more from his ability to consistently rack up innings and quality starts off his elite 59.9% ground-ball rate.
The righty has gone at least seven innings 11 times in 21 outings, and his 15 quality starts are tied for the league lead. He actually has a higher strikeout rate (27.0%) versus lefties, which could help him neutralize Boston's best hitters.
All five of the guys I've mentioned have pretty high salaries, so if you're looking for a lower cap hit, someone like Bobby Miller ($8,700) or MacKenzie Gore ($8,900) are value options to consider.
Miller has been solid if unspectacular this year, but what should interest us is that he's posted a 26.9% strikeout rate and 3.0% walk rate in three July starts after greatly reducing his sinker usage. I'm not sure how likely it is that he can contend for a top score in a mediocre matchup against Cincinnati Reds, but the Los Angeles Dodgers' offense gives him a strong shot at a win, and the Reds have a modest 3.88 implied team total.
Gore is a classic boom-or-bust choice. I might surprise you that he actually has the slate's second-best strikeout rate (28.0%), and the New York Mets are below average against lefties. It all boils down to whether Gore can avoid the walks and home runs -- something oddsmakers aren't expecting (4.85 implied team total).
Hitting Breakdown
The Los Angeles Dodgers are on the stacking radar just about every night, so when they come in with a 5.62 implied team total like tonight, we definitely need to take notice.
The Dodgers are facing Brandon Williamson, a rookie lefty who's scuffled to a 5.07 SIERA, 18.8% strikeout rate, and 9.4% walk rate over 12 starts. The southpaw has coughed up 1.54 home runs per nine innings off a 44.8% fly-ball rate, and his 5.57 xERA is an eighth-percentile mark.
While Williamson has actually gotten by with decent results lately, his 4.60 ERA is far more likely to go up than down moving forward.
We'll naturally want to prioritize righties against the left-hander, so Mookie Betts ($4,300), Will Smith ($3,700), and J.D. Martinez ($4,000) are all worth paying up for.
Chris Taylor ($2,800) qualifies at three positions, so he's a versatile value play if he starts. He has a sneaky-good .239 ISO this season.
Williamson hasn't been anything special in same-sided matchups, either, so the Dodgers' star lefties are absolutely fair game, as well.
The Atlanta Braves are right up there with the Dodgers, boasting a 5.52 implied team total versus Adrian Houser. Houser has a sub-18% strikeout rate against both lefties and righties, but it's the former who have crushed him for a 5.79 xFIP and 1.65 home runs per nine innings.
This lines up perfectly for big nights from Matt Olson ($4,200) and Ozzie Albies ($3,900), and Eddie Rosario ($2,700) and Michael Harris II ($2,900) are top-notch low-salaries plays. Of course, the low-strikeout matchup keeps the usual righties in play, too.
It's a Coors Field night, so either the Oakland Athletics or Colorado Rockies could go nuts, but they aren't necessarily priorities when elite offenses like the Dodgers and Braves are in such good situations. Still, the A's face a low-strikeout lefty in Kyle Freeland, and the Rockies get a homer-prone JP Sears.
The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians round out the teams with implied team totals above five runs, while the Mariners might be a team that flies under the radar.
Minnesota is facing Brady Singer, who has a middling 4.76 xFIP and 19.4% strikeout rate versus lefties this year. Touki Toussaint has been all over the place with a 16.7% walk rate, putting the Guardians in play. Seattle will see regression candidate Tommy Henry, who has a 5.38 SIERA, 16.3% strikeout rate, and 9.6% walk rate -- not exactly the profile befitting of a 4.01 ERA.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.