College Football Expert Picks: Best Bets and Predictions for the CFP Semifinals

We haven't been treated with too many tight games thus far in the College Football Playoff.

The semifinal round looks different with both spreads within a touchdown. And -- at least according to FanDuel Research's college football writers -- even the larger of the two spreads may be too big.

Let's dig into their favorite spreads and totals for Thursday and Friday in FanDuel Sportsbook's college football betting odds.

College Football Playoff Semifinals Expert Betting Picks

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Texas Alt Spread +6.5 (-120)

A few bizarre, fluky plays turned the Texas Longhorns' quarterfinal game from blowout to nail-biter, but they're one of few that can match the Ohio State Buckeyes in NFL talent in the trenches as OSU deals with injuries up front.

These two teams were separated by the thinnest of margins in net EPA per play, but the gap in New Year's Day performances seems to have left a few points of value on Texas. Remember, this game is in Dallas just three hours from UT's campus, too.

Total: Notre Dame-Penn State Under 45.5 Points (-120)

These are two of FBS' top-six defenses in yards per play (YPP), and they've combined to allow just 51 points in four combined games during the College Football Playoff.

Are either a dramatic step up in competition for each other? Not really. Jeremiyah Love's knee injury is a huge blow to a Notre Dame Fighting Irish squad that mustered just 4.0 YPP in the Sugar Bowl, and the Penn State Nittany Lions posted just 15.0 offensive points per game against the only two top-25 YPP defenses they faced this season.

Riley Thomas, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Penn State Moneyline (+102)

The Orange Bowl is like splitting hairs with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish favored by 1.5 points. In a matchup of similar styles, I like the Penn State Nittany Lions to come up with the upset thanks to the more talented roster.

Much of this hinges on the status of edge rusher Abdul Carter, who ranks fifth on NFL Mock Draft Database's 2025 Consensus Big Board. Carter seems to be leaning toward returning to play, and if that's the case, give me the Nittany Lions to pull off the upset.

Total: Ohio State Under 29.5 Points (-114)

Fast starts have led to the Ohio State Buckeyes dominating in the playoffs. However, the Texas Longhorns give up only 1.8 first quarter points per game (third-fewest). Texas also forces 2.0 takeaways per game (eighth-most), and quarterback Will Howard has given up the ball at times.

Following a slow start, look for OSU to be under its scoring total -- especially with lingering concerns on the offensive line against this uber-talented Longhorn defensive front.

Skyler Carlin, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Texas +5.5 (-104)

For the first two quarters of their showdown against the Arizona State Sun Devils in the quarterfinals, the Texas Longhorns looked dominant, jumping out to a 17-3 lead before Arizona State outscored them 21-7 in the second half. While the Ohio State Buckeyes would love to air it out to Jeremiah Smith often again, the Longhorns can keep this game close with their defense that ranks third in expected points added per drop back allowed (-0.160) and fourth in defensive passing success rate (34.7%).

Total: Ohio State-Texas Under 53.5 (-115)

Even though the Buckeyes and Longhorns feature offenses that can generate explosive plays, these defenses are the story of this matchup, with both programs ranking top three in defensive EPA. Additionally, Ohio State is 1st in early-down EPA on defense (-0.197), and Texas is 17th in early-down EPA on defense (-0.095), which could make this more of a defensive battle than some expect.

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Which bets stand out to you across the semifinals? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college football betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.