College Football: 3 Best Bets and Player Props for Texas at Texas A&M

With 97 all-time meetings between two of the most storied programs across the sport, the Texas Longhorns-Texas A&M Aggies rivalry was one of the sport's top contests for much of college football history. But when Texas A&M moved to the SEC in 2012, the rivalry went on hiatus. With Texas joining the SEC this season, the bitter rivalry is back on.

It's been over 10 years since the last meeting in 2011, and the environment should be special in the Aggies' Kyle Field with a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday. Adding to the hype, a berth for the SEC Championship game will be on the line. Along with carrying -225 odds to win this game straight up, the Longhorns carry the second-shortest odds to win the SEC (+160) while A&M is far behind at +800.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, let's circle the best bets for one of Saturday's top matchups.

All college football odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Texas at Texas A&M Betting Picks

Texas -6.5 (-111)
Texas Over 27.5 Points (-120)

The spread is firmly favoring Texas at -5.5, but the odds aren't the most exciting in the world at -120. Looking at the alternate market, better value can be found in -6.5 at -111, allowing us to get the key number of seven with this pick.

Perhaps the biggest key in this will be Quinn Ewers' health. He's dealing with an ankle injury, which ESPN's Pete Thamel said will "linger" and cause Ewers to not be at 100% for the epic showdown. While it's a concern, I doubt Ewers would play if the injury will hinder him that much. If it's an apparent problem, backup QB Arch Manning still provides comfort with his 90.1 player grade and 83.5 passing grade, per Pro Football Focus.

Throughout the season, defense has been Texas A&M's strength, but this unit has imploded by giving up 37.5 points per game (PPG) in regulation over its last two conference games. Here's where the problem lays: Texas has the best offense the Aggies have seen up to this point. Auburn and South Carolina shredded A&M and neither offense is in the top 30 of EPA per play. Meanwhile, the Longhorns are sixth in EPA per play on offense.

The Aggies have surrendered 499.5 yards per game over the last two SEC games... let that sink in. Even LSU in Week 9 posted 429 yards but logged only 23 points thanks to three turnovers. Sloppy play from UT is probably one of Texas A&M's few routes to limiting the scoreboard from skyrocketing.

Not only have the Aggies allowed 9.4 yards per passing attempt over the last two SEC contests, but opponents have also racked up 227 rushing yards per game and 5.4 rushing yards per attempt.

Against an offense that puts up 36.5 PPG (top 7%) and 6.2 yards per play (top 17%), I'm not sure how A&M has enough to keep this close. We shouldn't overlook Texas allowing the second-fewest EPA per play on defense too. The Longhorns give up a measly 3.1 yards per carry (top 5%), and the Aggies are in the top 16% of rush play rate.

numberFire's game projections have Texas winning 34.3-27.2, and College Football Nerds' prediction model features an even larger margin at 28.0-15.1 in favor of the Longhorns. We have more than enough to back that -6.5 alt spread. Another big scoring day looks imminent too, making over 27.5 points another good bet for Texas.

Quintrevion Wisner Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Everything's been all Texas so far, and I don't plan to stop with prop bets. Ewers has some health concerns, which could at least keep his passing down a bit. He's failed to reach 200 passing yards in back-to-back games.

There's even been a shift in play-calling over the last two weeks, for UT carried a 58.0% rush play rate compared to its season mark of 50.4% (bottom 36%). Quintrevion Wisner has taken the bulk of those carries, averaging 21.5 rushing attempts and 109 rushing yards during the stretch.

With Winston's rushing prop set at 77.5 yards, we have another over worth backing. As mentioned, Texas A&M has given up 227 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry over its last two games in league play. It's essentially pick your preference against this struggling Aggies defense, and I expect the Longhorns to lean more on the run.

Not only is Texas' run game numbers up, it'd also be ideal to avoid A&M's pass rush that holds PFF's 24th-best grade. This defensive line has two potential first-round picks for the 2025 NFL Draft in Nic Scourton and Shemar Stewart. Sure, the Longhorns have an excellent offensive line that leads PFF's pass blocking grade with two likely first-round offensive tackles -- Kelvin Banks and Cameron Williams -- but why drop back if you don't have to? Not putting your gimpy QB in vulnerable spots seems smart, especially with several games likely remaining thanks to an expanded playoff field.

The Longhorns feature the best EPA per rushing attempt (ninth-best) that the Aggies will see in the regular season. Backed by an 81.6 rushing grade by PFF, Wisner should have another solid day ahead.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest college football odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the college football betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.