College Basketball Betting Picks for Wednesday 2/28/23
The college basketball season always provides a flurry of twists and turns that few saw coming -- especially when March Madness comes around. This can make college basketball one of the most challenging sports to bet on.
Fortunately, we have plenty of tools available that can aid our chances of taking the most favorable college basketball bets. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.
Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
College Basketball Best Bets
Missouri at No. 24 Florida
Florida -13.5 (-105)
The Missouri Tigers visit Florida Gators to kick off a busy night in the SEC, and I'm all over the Gators to cover as 13.5-point favorites.
Mizzou enters tonight with an 0-14 record in conference play. Dating back to the non-conference schedule, the Tigers have dropped 17 of their last 18 games. Though they don't have the worst net rating (points per 100 possessions - points allowed per 100 possessions) in the SEC, Missouri has been the conference punching bag this season. The Tigers rank 12th in offensive rating and 14th in defensive rating. They're similarly last in total rebound rate (43%), and they turn the ball over at the SEC's fourth-highest clip (14.5%).
While 13.5 is a lot for Florida to cover, it would hardly be the first lopsided defeat for Mizzou. The Tigers have dropped four conference games by at least 14 points and boast a -10.4 average margin of victory. They're fresh off one of their worst losses of the conference season, losing to 5-10 Arkansas by 15 points over the weekend.
Looking at Florida, the Gators sit in sixth place in the SEC with a 9-5 record. Florida ranks fifth in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating, but their real strength comes inside. Florida boasts the conference's second-best rebound rate (53.7%) and leads the SEC with 38.7 points in the paint per game. That could come in handy tonight considering the Tigers allow the SEC's highest at-rim field goal percentage (61.4%), per Bart Torvik.
They used that interior dominance to beat Missouri by 12 earlier this season, outrebounding the Tigers by 13.
Florida has only improved since that win, whereas Mizzou continues to struggle. In a home rematch, I'm expecting the Gators to win big here, covering this 13.5-point spread in the process.
No. 11 Auburn at No. 4 Tennessee
Auburn +6.5 (-102)
The No. 11 Auburn Tigers visit the No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers in tonight's lone top-25 matchup. While Auburn lacks a signature road win this season, they're in a nice spot to keep things tight and cover as 6.5-point underdogs.
The Tigers picked up a much-needed road W over the weekend, crushing Georgia by 21 points. That was a significant bounce back after they lost a home bout to Kentucky the week prior, and it has me bullish on their chances tonight.
Auburn came into today tied for third in the SEC at 10-4. They rank fourth in the conference in offensive rating and first in defensive rating. Auburn has the SEC's second-best forced turnover rate (14.8%), helping them average 13.9 fastbreak points per game, ranking 29th nationally.
The Tigers have held opponents to a 48.4% field goal percentage on close twos (first in the SEC) and 29.6% three-point field goal percentage (second). They've given up more than 80 points just once in SEC play -- something that will be vital to their chances of covering tonight.
That's because Tennessee sports the conference's second-best offensive rating and third-highest effective field goal percentage. They've failed to reach 75 points in just four of their 14 conference games, but they're 1-3 in such outings.
Auburn has to slow down Tennessee's offense if they want to cover, but they match up well with the Volunteers. Auburn has the size advantage here. While Tennessee is the better rebounding team on paper, I think the Tigers have the advantage down low.
Auburn averages 37.2 points in the paint per game (35th nationally). While the Vols have sound interior defense numbers, that's been their kryptonite in losses. In their three conference Ls, they've allowed opponents to shoot 62.7% at the rim -- notably higher than their 49.7% mark on the year. Auburn is shooting 61.2% on close twos this season, and I like their chances down low tonight.
Tennessee and Auburn may very well be the best two teams in the SEC. They boast similar numbers across the board, so I'll take Auburn to keep things close and cover as 6.5-point 'dogs.
No. 18 South Carolina at Texas A&M
South Carolina +5.5 (-110)
The 18th-ranked South Carolina Gamecocks -- fresh off a 13-point road W -- are 5.5-point underdogs against the unranked Texas A&M Aggies, losers of four straight. While the Gamecocks have shown some cracks after a hot start to the conference season, they've proven to be a tournament-level team. Texas A&M is firmly on the bubble, so I'll back SC to cover as underdogs.
The Gamecocks had dropped two in a row prior to their most recent win, but they bounced back against Ole Miss over the weekend. That marked their sixth road SEC win, tied for the most in the conference. They haven't just beaten up on inferior competition, either. SC's road W over Tennessee is the crown jewel to their resume, but they've also beaten Georgia and Arkansas away from home -- the latter of which just took down A&M on their home floor.
South Carolina plays at a snail's pace, ranking 355th nationally in KenPom's adjusted pace metric. That's propelled them to lead the SEC in scoring defense, allowing just 67.1 points per game. They aren't just pace merchants, however. Even when you adjusted per 100 possessions, the Gamecocks rank third in defensive rating. They've held conference opponents to the third-lowest effective field goal percentage (48.6%) and rank fourth in total rebound rate (53.1%).
SC's work on the glass is the key to them covering tonight. Texas A&M leads the SEC in total rebound rate (54.5%) and lead the entire country in offensive rebound rate (42.4%). They average the most second-chance points (16.5) in the nation, but South Carolina permits the fewest second-chance points in the SEC (9.3) The Gamecocks also boast the highest defensive rebound rate (75.8%) in the conference, so they're well-equipped to handle the Aggies' ferocity on the glass.
When teams limit A&M on the boards, they struggle to score. The Aggies have the SEC's worst effective field goal percentage (42%) and three-point field goal percentage (26.8%). This will be the seventh time they face a team with a top-50 adjusted defense on KenPom. A&M is just 3-4 in such matchups, averaging a mere 65.1 points per game.
South Carolina has been the better team all season, and I don't see that changing tonight. Considering how well the Gamecocks match up with Texas A&M's strength on the glass, I'll back them to cover +5.5 and take a long look at South Carolina moneyline (+190).
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.