College Basketball Betting Picks for Tuesday 1/30/24
The college basketball season always provides a flurry of twists and turns that few saw coming -- especially when March Madness comes around. This can make college basketball one of the most challenging sports to bet on.
Fortunately, we have plenty of tools available that can aid our chances of taking the most favorable college basketball bets. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.
Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
College Basketball Best Bets
No. 14 Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State Buckeyes
Illinois -3.5 (-102)
Illinois and Ohio State have struggled against the spread (ATS) over the last couple weeks of play. The Fighting Illini are 2-3 ATS over their last five while the Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their previous seven contests. Something has to give in tonight's Big Ten clash. Which team will finally cover the spread?
Despite some recent struggles ATS, Illinois has actually fared well on the road with a 3-1 record ATS away from home. I expect this streak to continue in Columbus, Ohio. Frankly, I feel that the Illini should be favored by more than just 3.5 points. OSU has struggled in league play at 3-6 while Illinois is 6-3 in the Big Ten.
Alongside far better play in conference games, the Fighting Illini are simply the more impressive team with several advantages. Illinois ranks as KenPom's 10th-best team while Ohio State is 61st in the metric. The Illini's offense -- which has the 7th-best adjusted offensive efficiency -- looks to be a big problem for the Scarlet and Gray's defense (100th in adjusted defensive efficiency).
Illinois ranks in the 79th percentile of three-point attempts per contest, and OSU is in the bottom 47% in opponent three-pointers made each game and in the bottom 14% in opponent three-point percentage. This could mean big games for the Fighting Illini's sharpshooters, such as Terrence Shannon Jr. (19.9 PPG). Illinois' leading scorer returned from suspension on January 21st and has averaged 13.3 PPG over his last three outings.
Per KenPom, the Illini also rank 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency. It's not an elite unit by any means but it excels in the right area to slow the Buckeyes. Ohio State looks to attack the rim as they rank outside the top 150 in three-pointers attempted per game and in three-point percentage. Only 32.2% of opponents' field goals are close twos against Illinois, though. The Buckeyes are simply not an efficient jump-shooting team, and without close twos, it could be a long night.
No. 9 Marquette Golden Eagles at Villanova Wildcats
Marquette Moneyline (+102)
Following back-to-back losses against Seton Hall (68th in KenPom) and Butler (54th in KenPom), Marquette has found itself with four consecutive wins in Big East play. The Golden Eagles still have a ton of work to do to become a serious contender to win the Big East, though. According to FanDuel's college basketball conference odds, they remain the second choice to win the league (+950), but Connecticut seems to be running away from the pack (-950).
Marquette will be an underdog for the second time over their previous four games as tonight's opponent -- Villanova -- is favored by 1.5 points. The Eagles will be looking to replicate their last game in the underdog role, which was a 73-72 win against St. John's on the road. numberFire's projections are suggesting Marquette to cover the spread. Considering the small spread, backing the Golden Eagles at all could mean taking the moneyline (+102).
I'm holding the same sentiment as numberFire's projections. I like Marquette to cover, and ultimately, they could come out of Finneran Pavilion with a win. Let's dive into the stats that provide solid support.
First off, the Wildcats have done close to nothing recently that would suggest that they can pull off this upset. Villanova is on a four-game losing streak and is 2-4 against the spread (ATS) over their last six games. The Golden Eagles' defense (14th in efficiency) could frustrate the Wildcats' offense, which ranks 60th in adjusted efficiency.
Villanova heavily relies on the three-ball with 27.7 shots per contest (94th percentile), but they shoot only 32.5% from beyond the arc (bottom 34%). The Wildcats take 47.6% of their field goals from deep (96th percentile), and Marquette ranks among the bottom 11% with opponents taking 42.7% of their shots from three.
While this will likely allow Villanova to shoot to their heart's content, the Golden Eagles could be just fine with that considering the Wildcats' poor efficiency. Plus, 'Nova is shooting a meager 22.9% from deep over their previous two contests. It's not as if Marquette lacks quality backcourt defenders, either, with Stevie Mitchell (2.34) and Tyler Kolek (2.29) holding impressive Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR), per EvanMiya.
Ultimately, I trust the best unit on the floor -- the Golden Eagles' defense -- to lead to the win.
No. 3 North Carolina Tar Heels at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Under 152.5 (-110)
North Carolina is the hottest Power Six team in college basketball with 10 consecutive wins. After finishing outside KenPom's top-30 defenses in coach Hubert Davis' first two seasons, the Tar Heels have become one of the nation's best teams thanks to their elite defense that ranks third in adjusted efficiency. UNC now has the third-shortest odds to win the national championship (+1300) while carrying -600 odds to win the ACC.
Tuesday's total of 152.5 against Georgia Tech feels too high. The under could be a layup thanks to the Tar Heels' exceptional defense, and the Yellow Jackets are 134th in KenPom while ranking 96th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Opponents are totaling only 63.0 PPG against North Carolina during their 10-game winning streak. Georgia Tech has also logged only 65.7 PPG while shooting 40.5% from the field over the last three contests. The Tar Heels' ability to limit three-point success could be their calling card for tonight. The Yellow Jackets rank in the 81st percentile of three-point shots per game, but opponents shoot only 29.2% from deep against UNC (94th percentile).
The biggest concern for the under hitting could be North Carolina's ability to score at 83.1 PPG (94th percentile). Georgia Tech is among the top 38% slowest tempos in college basketball. This could be a big key with the Jackets slowing down the game, leading to the under. Over the Tar Heels' last eight games, the under is 7-1.
If you’re betting on any college basketball action on January 30th, you can take advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook’s Boost Builder. See the promotions page for more information.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.