Cincinnati Open Best Bets for the Men's and Women's Finals

The Cincinnati Open concludes on Monday with both the men's and women's finals.

Americans Jessica Pegula and Frances Tiafoe have made it to these title matches, but both will have their hands full as underdogs. Pegula is up against world No. 3 Aryna Sabalenka on the women's side while Tiafoe will go toe to toe with world No. 1 Jannik Sinner in the men's match.

Where can we find betting value in these two matchups?

Cincinnati Open Best Bets

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula

Sabalenka 2-0 Sets (-105)

Both Sabalenka and Pegula are seeking their first Cincinnati title, and both players seem to be peaking at just the right time ahead of the US Open.

However, it's Aryna who looks especially dangerous after emphatically defeating her rival, Iga Swiatek, in the semifinals via straight sets (6-3, 6-3). Swiatek certainly didn't go down without a fight in a match where she saved nine match points, but it's the first time Sabalenka has ever defeated the world No. 1 in straight sets, and it's just the 4th time she's won across their 12 head-to-head battles.

This should be a major confidence booster for the Belarusian, and she's now won all four of her Cincinnati matches in straight sets, which also includes wins over top-30 players Elina Svitolina and Liudmila Samsonova.

Pegula has advanced to back-to-back WTA 1000 finals after lifting the trophy at the Canadian Open last week, so her form isn't in question, either.

That being said, just six women have ever made both the Canadian Open and Cincinnati Open finals in the same year, and the last time that player won both was in 1973. Even the GOAT Serena Williams reached both finals consecutively only once (2013) and couldn't quite finish the job.

Needless to say, this is a tough double to convert, and fatigue could definitely be a factor for Pegula. While she dropped just one set in her Canada run, she's gone to a deciding set in three of her four Cincinnati matches, and her last two matches against Leylah Fernandez and Paula Badosa have combined for roughly five hours of court time. Keep in mind that unlike a major, these matches are all coming in succession without days off in between, too.

While Pegula did win her lone match against Sabalenka in 2023, the latter owns a 4-2 advantage in their head-to-head.

Tennis Abstract's model projects Aryna to win 65% of the time while Massey Ratings forecasts a 63% win probability. Although those figures aren't as high as her implied odds are as a -290 favorite (74.4%), it's hard to go against Sabalenka when she's playing like this, particularly after ousting her arch-nemesis in the previous round. Throw in the possibility that Pegula might be running on a tank that's half-empty, and backing the Belarusian to take this final in straight sets is the value play.

Jannik Sinner vs. Frances Tiafoe

Sinner 2-0 Sets (-120)

Sinner benefited from a bye and walkover in his draw while Tiafoe's quarterfinal opponent retired after just one set, but neither one of these two has had a smooth road to this final.

The world No. 1 has endured back-to-back three-setters against top-10 players Andrey Rublev and Alexander Zverev, and Sunday's semifinal versus Zverev was a particularly grueling 7-6(9), 5-7, 7-6(4) match that went over three hours. An ongoing hip issue remains a concern for Sinner, but the fact he's overcome some tough opposition and is still playing in this final so close to the US Open suggests he must feel confident in his fitness.

Tiafoe has gone through a mostly forgettable 2024, as he entered this tournament with just a 19-18 record. But between this Cincinnati performance and a recent run to the semifinals at Washington, he could be turning things around just in time for the season's last major.

Even so, he's narrowly made it here after needing a deciding set against both Jiri Lehecka in the round of 16 and Holger Rune in the semifinals, and three of those six sets were decided by a tie break.

Further, while Tiafoe has often flashed his potential, reaching the top 10 in 2023, he's also struggled against elite competition (11-34 vs. top-10 opponents), and this his first-ever Masters 1000 final.

Meanwhile, Sinner has dominated huge chunks of 2024 with a 47-5 record, winning this year's Australian Open along with three other titles. Were it not for the hip injury, it's possible he would have even more wins and titles under his belt.

The Italian owns a 3-1 head-to-head record over the American, and he won in straight sets the last time they played in 2023. Sinner's advantage over Tiafoe could be even more telling given that his rise into the top five didn't happen until late last season, so Tiafoe has little experience against this more imposing version.

Tennis Abstract doesn't see this one being close, giving Sinner a 92% win probability, and Massey Ratings agrees at a similar 90% clip. There's always the chance Jannik's hip problem becomes a bigger factor than expected, but it's still hard to pick against the ATP Tour's top-ranked player, and a straight-sets victory feels like the most likely outcome.

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