Coming off their 116-99 victory in Game 4 on Tuesday, the Boston Celtics are down 3-1 to the Miami Heat heading into Game 5 at the TD Garden on Thursday night.

Gabe Vincent suffered a left ankle sprain in Game 4 and has been ruled out of Game 5.

Game 5 tips off at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

Here's how the Celtics and Heat stack up.

All NBA odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Celtics vs. Heat Game 5 Betting Odds: Moneyline, Spread, and Total

• Moneyline:
  • Celtics: -310
  • Heat: +250
• Spread: Celtics -8.0 (-110)
• Total: 215.0

Celtics vs. Heat Game 5 Projections

Win projections via numberFire.

• Win Odds: 78.6% Celtics

Celtics vs. Heat Game 5 Player Props: Total Points, and Double Double Odds

• Total Points:
  • Jimmy Butler: 28.5
  • Bam Adebayo: 17.5
  • Jayson Tatum: 30.5
  • Jaylen Brown: 23.5
  • Max Strus: 12.5
  • Kyle Lowry: 11.5
  • Al Horford: 7.5
  • Marcus Smart: 12.5
  • Malcolm Brogdon: 8.5
  • Derrick White: 12.5
  • Caleb Martin: 13.5
  • Kevin Love: 5.5
  • Grant Williams: 7.5
  • Duncan Robinson: 8.5
• To Record a Double Double:
  • Jayson Tatum: -200
  • Bam Adebayo: +130
  • Jimmy Butler: +180
  • Jaylen Brown: +490
  • Marcus Smart: +750
  • Caleb Martin: +1100
  • Al Horford: +1100
  • Kyle Lowry: +1100

Celtics vs. Heat Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings, pace, and shot distribution via DunksAndThrees.

• Celtics:
  • nERD: 67.0 (1st)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.9 (2nd)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.3 (3rd)
  • Pace: 98.8 (17th)
  • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
    • Rim: 32.3% (24th) - 65.1% (8th)
    • Mid: 19.7% (1st) - 42.8% (18th)
    • 3PT: 48.0% (2nd) - 37.7% (6th)
• Heat:
  • nERD: 47.5 (22nd)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 113.2 (25th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 113.4 (8th)
  • Pace: 96.3 (29th)
  • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
    • Rim: 29.9% (29th) - 62.6% (20th)
    • Mid: 29.4% (24th) - 45.3% (7th)
    • 3PT: 40.8% (9th) - 34.4% (27th)

Celtics vs. Heat Game 5 Analysis

Facing elimination in Game 4, the Celtics finally turned things around. In a reversal of Game 1, Boston saved their season with an impressive second half. After entering halftime down 6, they won the third quarter by 15 and the fourth quarter by 8 to send the series back to Boston.

The key to the Celtics' turnaround was their three-point shooting and their defense. Boston shot 43 of 84 (51.2%) from the field and 18 of 45 from behind the arc (40.0%). Entering Game 4, the Celtics were shooting just 29.2% from three in the series, well below their playoff average entering the Eastern Conference Finals (39.5%).

Except for Jaylen Brown, who continued to struggle from three, shooting just 1 of 5 (20.0%), all of the Celtics' starters made at least three shots from behind the arc in Game 4. Grant Williams was especially impactful off the bench, shooting 4 of 6 (66.6%) from three and posting a plus/minus of +15 in 29 minutes played. Al Horford busted out of his three-game slump to post the best plus/minus of any player in Game 4 (+23).

On the other side of the ball, Boston held Miami to just 99 points, the Heat's lowest score in this series and their second-lowest in the playoffs so far. Entering Game 4, Miami was shooting 51.9% from the field and an absurd 47.8% from behind the arc. On Tuesday, they shot 34 for 78 (43.6%) from the field and just 8 of 32 (25.0%) from three.

Turnovers also played a huge part in the Celtics' second-half comeback. In the first half, Boston turned the ball over eight times to the Heat's seven. In the second half, they committed only two turnovers, while Miami recorded eight. After playing exceptionally well to this point, Bam Adebayo was responsible for four turnovers on Tuesday and recorded the worst plus/minus of any player in Game 4 (-21).

For Game 5, the absence of Gabe Vincent is a notable loss for Miami. Vincent has the third-best plus/minus (8.5) of all players in the Eastern Conference Finals. He is averaging 17.5 points per game against the Celtics on 57.6% shooting from the field and 50.0% shooting from three.

The issue for Boston, of course, is that they still need to win three more games in a row to advance. That's a tough task for a team that has been incredibly inconsistent throughout the postseason. For most teams, having two of those three games at home would be a positive, but the Celtics aren't most teams.

After handing Miami their first home loss of the postseason, the Celtics are now 5-3 on the road during these playoffs. At home, they are 4-5. Every other team that has at least two losses at home this postseason has already been eliminated.

A silver lining for Boston is their play in recent elimination games. Since 2018, they are 9-5 in elimination games, including 6-1 in their last seven. Since 2018, they are 4-2 in elimination games at home, with their only two losses coming against the Golden State Warriors in Game 6 of last year's NBA Finals and to LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 7 of the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals.

Game 4 was a much-needed rebound for the Celtics, but they still have a long way to go. The Heat closed out the Milwaukee Bucks on the road in Game 5 in the first round of these playoffs and also have a 5-3 record away from home this postseason.

As it stands, Boston is favored to win Game 5, but the Heat remain the favorites to win the series (-260).

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.