Celtics vs. Heat Game 4 Betting Odds: Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Player Props
Coming off their 128-102 defeat in Game 3 on Sunday, the Boston Celtics are down 3-0 to the Miami Heat heading into Game 4 at the Kaseya Center on Tuesday night.
Game 4 tips off at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on TNT.
Here's how the Celtics and Heat stack up heading into Game 4 in Miami.
All NBA odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Celtics vs. Heat Game 4 Betting Odds: Moneyline, Spread, and Total
- Moneyline:
- Celtics: +102
- Heat: -120
- Spread: Heat -1.5 (-110)
- Total: 217.0
Celtics vs. Heat Game 4 Projections
Win projections via numberFire.
- Win Odds: 62.9% Celtics
Celtics vs. Heat Game 4 Player Props: Total Points, and Double Double Odds
- Total Points:
- Jimmy Butler: 28.5
- Bam Adebayo: 18.5
- Jayson Tatum: 29.5
- Jaylen Brown: 23.5
- Gabe Vincent: 12.5
- Max Strus: 11.5
- Kyle Lowry: 8.5
- Al Horford: 6.5
- Marcus Smart: 12.5
- Malcolm Brogdon: 13.5
- Derrick White: 10.5
- Caleb Martin: 12.5
- Robert Williams: 7.5
- To Record a Double Double:
- Jayson Tatum: -160
- Bam Adebayo: +100
- Jimmy Butler: +200
- Jaylen Brown: +500
- Marcus Smart: +800
- Robert Williams: +900
- Caleb Martin: +1400
- Al Horford: +1500
Celtics vs. Heat Advanced Stats Breakdown
nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings, pace, and shot distribution via DunksAndThrees.
- Celtics:
- nERD: 67.0 (1st)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.9 (2nd)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.3 (3rd)
- Pace: 98.8 (17th)
- Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
- Rim: 32.3% (24th) - 65.1% (8th)
- Mid: 19.7% (1st) - 42.8% (18th)
- 3PT: 48.0% (2nd) - 37.7% (6th)
- Heat:
- nERD: 47.5 (22nd)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 113.2 (25th)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 113.4 (8th)
- Pace: 96.3 (29th)
- Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
- Rim: 29.9% (29th) - 62.6% (20th)
- Mid: 29.4% (24th) - 45.3% (7th)
- 3PT: 40.8% (9th) - 34.4% (27th)
Celtics vs. Heat Game 4 Analysis
Everything that could have gone wrong for Boston in Game 3 did go wrong. The Celtics have struggled at home all postseason but have made up for it by being the best road team in the playoffs. Relying on road wins to support shaky home results is a risky strategy, and on Sunday night, it all came crashing down for Boston.
The Heat showed up, securing a blowout victory to remain perfect at home. Miami took the lead with five minutes left in the first quarter and never gave it back. They opened up a 31-point cushion near the end of the third quarter before cruising to a 26-point win that moved them within one game of a trip to the NBA Finals.
Miami outplayed Boston on both ends of the floor in Game 3, routinely finding open looks and hitting three-pointers while stifling the Celtics' offense and forcing turnover after turnover. The Heat shot 56.8% from the floor and a white-hot 54.3% from behind the arc. Boston shot 39.8% from the floor and 26.2% from behind the arc.
Bam Adebayo continued his exceptional play, posting a plus/minus of +30 in 26 minutes on the court. The trio of Gabe Vincent (6 for 9, 66.6%), Duncan Robinson (5 for 7, 71.4%), and Caleb Martin (4 of 7, 57.1%) dominated the three-point line, shooting a combined 15 of 23 (65.2%) from behind the arc. Vincent led all players in plus/minus with a +34 in 35 minutes played.
There was no silver lining for Boston. Jayson Tatum continued to struggle, shooting 6 of 18 (33.3%) from the field and 1 for 7 (14.3%) from three, resulting in a plus/minus of -23. Jaylen Brown was worse, shooting 6 for 17 (35.3%) from the floor and missing all 7 of his three-pointers, resulting in a plus/minus of -25. Off the bench, Malcolm Brogdon posted a -23 in 18 minutes played with 0 points, 2 rebounds, and 2 assists. Boston's starters combined for 11 turnovers.
With the Celtics needing a Game 3 win to get back on track, they fell short of what was required in every meaningful category. Through three games, Boston ranks last in points per game (107.7), shooting percentage (45.7%), three-point shooting percentage (29.2%), and turnovers per game (15.0) among teams in the conference finals.
The only good news for Boston is that they still have a slim chance to save their season. Doing so will require them to make drastic improvements on both ends of the court, and that has to start in Game 4.
The Celtics are 2-0 when facing elimination this postseason, with both wins coming against the Philadelphia 76ers. The Heat are 2-1 in win-and-advance games during these playoffs and a perfect 6-0 at home.
As it stands, the Heat are favorites to win Game 4 and the Eastern Conference Finals (-1300). They also have the second-best odds to win the NBA Finals (+260).
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