Can Deebo Samuel Bounce Back in Fantasy Football With the Commanders?

Every year we see fantasy football heroes fall from grace. The hard part the following year is figuring out whether we should bite on these former stars at a buy-low cost or save ourselves from the headache.

Deebo Samuel has that billing for 2025.

Once a league-winner, Samuel is coming off a trying campaign with the San Francisco 49ers. Injuries to Samuel and the Niners as a whole -- along with a big step back in the efficiency department -- led to an incredibly lackluster return on investment for Samuel's fantasy managers in 2024.

Samuel was traded to the Washington Commanders this offseason, joining forces with Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin.

What should we expect from Samuel in his debut with the Commanders, and where should you consider drafting Deebo in 2025 fantasy football drafts? Let's dig in with the help of FantasyPros' consensus average draft position (ADP) data for half-PPR leagues.

Deebo Samuel's 2024 Season

Samuel burst onto the scene in his third year in the NFL, posting a whopping 1,770 scrimmage yards and 14 touchdowns en route to a WR2 finish in 2021. Cooper Kupp was the only wide receiver to finish ahead of him in half-PPR leagues that year, and it led to Samuel being drafted as the WR9 (25th overall) for 2022.

Deebo was held to just 13 games in 2022 and underperformed at his ADP, though he bounced back in 2023 to corral 1,117 scrimmage yards and 12 scores -- good for a WR12 finish and a WR9 standing in half-PPR points per game.

Then last year happened.

Although Deebo was technically available for 15 games, that doesn't come close to telling the whole story. Throughout the year, he dealt with a calf strain, pneumonia, oblique injury, and a rib injury. It not only caused him to enter some games with a questionable designation and leave one contest early, but it also most likely hampered his efficiency. San Fran's bad luck didn't stop there, as they were ravaged with injuries all season long, most notably Christian McCaffrey (4 games played) and Brandon Aiyuk (7 games played).

So, when we examine Deebo's down campaign, which included just 806 scrimmage yards and 4 touchdowns, we need to consider all the factors that held him back. That doesn't mean we can let him off the hook for his poor efficiency -- he averaged 3.2 yards per carry and 1.72 yards per route run -- but I'd at least ask that we take his highs at face value. He was the WR12 in Week 1, WR6 in Week 6, and WR5 in Week 16 and did not have any injury designations those weeks.

The 29-year-old has his fair share of red flags, and his ADP has been adjusted as such. What is Deebo's fantasy football outlook with the Commanders this year?

Deebo Samuel's 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

There's no one remedy for a player to get back on track, but holding a key standing in the Commanders' offense is a good start.

Deebo heads into 2025 as the clear WR2 in this offense behind McLaurin, who earned himself a WR5 fantasy finish playing alongside Daniels a season ago. I'll note that McLaurin and the Commanders are currently at a standstill with contract negotiations, and the receiver has been placed on the PUP list (ankle) during training camp, which is most likely code for something else. Hopefully that gets sorted out by the start of the season.

As for Samuel, he figures to benefit from being a part of an offense that netted the most plays per game (66.0), fifth-most points per game (28.5), and sixth-highest red zone scoring percentage (63.4%) in 2024. Fantasy Points notes that Washington called a screen pass on 16.1% of Daniels' attempts last year, which could play nicely into Deebo's bag, as 25.3% of his targets were from designed plays in 2024.

And for as down of a year as it was, Deebo still ranked second in the NFL (minimum 50 catches) in yards after catch per reception (8.1), and he paced the league in yards after contact per reception (4.0).

After seeing how Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury supported Daniels a year ago and put a spotlight on McLaurin -- and also revived Zach Ertz to some degree -- there's real hope that the Commanders can use Deebo the right way and place him in the best spots for success this season. Of course, Deebo's environment alone won't save him. His age, injury history, and steady decline in efficiency are red flags in their own right. Plus, it's not like the Commanders are totally married to him. They had to give up just a fifth-round pick for the receiver on a pricey contract, one that will expire at the end of the year.

Currently, Deebo carries an ADP of WR38 at pick 85. FantasyPros' consensus projections have higher hopes, forecasting him to total 946.8 scrimmage yards and 6.3 touchdowns en route to a WR33 finish.

Ultimately, how you handle Deebo could depend on how your leaguemates approach the veteran. His name recognition could lend itself to more hype than he deserves, though his recent poor returns on investment could have the reverse effect. I'd be satisfied taking a shot on Deebo as an eighth- or early ninth-round pick. At a minimum, he gets you some Commanders exposure at a modest ADP.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.