Buffalo Bills Draft Utah TE Dalton Kincaid 25th Overall

The Buffalo Bills have a new pass-catching tight end.

Dalton Kincaid, a Utah prospect, was selected 25th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft.

The NFL Draft betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook had Kincaid +150 to be the first tight end drafted, trailing only Notre Dame prospect Michael Mayer (-230), as of Thursday morning entering the draft.

Dalton Kincaid NFL Draft Profile

Kincaid's three seasons at Utah saw him total 107 catches for 1,414 yards and 16 touchdowns including consecutive 8-touchdown campaigns as a junior and senior.

NFL Next Gen Stats' model granted Kincaid a production score of 90, ranking him first among this class. He was 10th in athleticism but still first in overall score in the model.

He's one of the best tight end prospects in my combine database, which dates back to 2003.

Dalton Kincaid Top Comparables

According to my NFL prospect database -- which accounts for athleticism, production, size, draft capital, age, and more historically important variables -- here are Kincaid's top five comparable players.

1. Hunter Henry - 91.4%
2. Greg Dulcich - 90.9%
3. Fred Davis - 90.2%
4. David Njoku - 89.2%
5. Eric Ebron - 88.6%

Dalton Kincaid in Buffalo

numberFire's expected points model graded the Bills' offense as the second-best unit in football in 2022, including the fourth-best passing offense once accounting for opponents faced.

Kincaid, like most rookie tight ends, may not make a first-year splash as big as his talent suggests he might be able to.

He should be the second tight end behind Dawson Knox and be a tertiary target at best behind Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis.

Buffalo Bills 2023 Outlook

The Bills' regular season win total number is set at a hefty 10.5 with -128 odds on the over, according to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL odds.

They're -245 to make the playoffs (around 71%), as well as +900 to win the Super Bowl, trailing only the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

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