Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville

Motivation -- or lackt thereof -- is playing a big role in betting markets for Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race in Martinsville.

This is the final race before the championship, meaning drivers who haven't yet locked in a spot are about to get desperate. Ryan Blaney has won this race in back-to-back years, and he's one of those must-win drivers. As a result, he's +380 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

Blaney should be the favorite. But I think the market has gone a bit too far in weighing motivation, creating value lower in the order.

Let's dig into that now, starting with my pre-practice simulations before delving into my favorite bets of the week.

NOTE: The simulations have since been updated after qualifying.

NASCAR Predictions for Martinsville

NASCAR Betting Picks for Martinsville

Chase Briscoe to Win (+1900)

(UPDATE: Briscoe has since lengthened to +2200 to win. His speed in practice was pretty poor, potentially indicating his focus is, in fact, fully on Phoenix. He's down to 3.8% to win for me, so he's no longer a value even at the lengthened number.)

Chase Briscoe is already locked into the Championship Race, meaning every second of his sim time this week will be at Phoenix. I just think this number over-accounts for that, making Briscoe worth a swipe despite the lack of motivation.

Martinsville is one of Briscoe's better tracks. He had a pair of top-fives here while running for Stewart-Haas Racing, a big step down in equipment from what he's got now with Joe Gibbs Racing. He has had a top-nine average running position here in five straight races.

Briscoe excels on flat tracks, a skill that has carried over to JGR. He was runner-up in both Iowa and Gateway, better than he performed at those tracks with SHR. Giving him a boost at Martinsville should make him a threat for the win.

It's possible Briscoe had already prepped for Martinsville last week as his win in Talladega was unexpected. They probably thought they'd need a good run here, and that could help him produce exactly that on Sunday. I'd rather take a big swing at his win odds than his safer markets because there's a good bit of volatility, but I do think Briscoe has the upside to get this done.

Josh Berry to Finish Top 5 (+500)

(UPDATE: Berry has since shortened to +500 to finish top 5. I still have him at 22.6% despite a poor qualifying effort, so I'd be willing to bet him even at the new number.)

Josh Berry was Briscoe's teammate at SHR, and he was similarly good there on flat tracks. In a much better ride with Wood Brothers Racing, Berry should be able to run up front.

Berry is fresh off a runner-up finish in New Hampshire, a race he could have won had it not been for some mid-race issues. He was also fourth earlier this year in Phoenix, which is another short, flat track.

Martinsville hasn't been as kind to Berry as you'd think, given his short-track background. His best finish in the Xfinity Series was fourth, and it's just 16th in Cup thus far. Still, I believe in his talent on this track type, and with Berry in a quality ride, I agree with the model that he is undervalued.

Austin Cindric to Finish Top 5 (+1100)

(UPDATE: Cindric has since lengthened to +1600 to finish top 5. That's despite qualifying 10th, so my model has him at 11.0%. He's also a quality value at +490 to finish top 10.)

Austin Cindric is in effectively the same equipment as Berry and has also shown upside here. This is a very long number based on both Cindric's form and track history.

Cindric finished top five in this race just last year. Despite qualifying 24th, he methodically picked his way forward for a fourth-place finish. It was the start of a turnaround for Cindric that carried over into this year.

Cindric finished in the top five in Richmond, and it came after he had a seventh-place average running position in Iowa. He also had good speed in Gateway but ran into issues. The pace has been there this year even if the finishes haven't always been.

The consistency with Cindric is lacking, which is why I'd rather shoot for the top-five bet than the top-10 line even though both are values. For this market, specifically, I have him 17.6% versus 8.3% implied, more than enough wiggle room for me to live with his ups and downs.

Zane Smith to Finish Top 10 (+1300)

(UPDATE: Smith is still +1300 but did slip a bit in the sims due to poor speed on Saturday. He's 8.9% for me, up from 7.1%, so he's still a value, but the edge is smaller than it was earlier in the week.)

There are a bunch of drivers in this range who stand out as values to me for top-10s, including:

• Austin Dillon (+900)
• Daniel Suarez (+1100)
• Michael McDowell (+1300)
• John Hunter Nemechek (+1600)

Of the group, I feel best about Zane Smith. But I think any and all of those drivers are in play at such long odds.

This has been a disappointing season for Front Row Motorsports, but Smith has shown some flashes of promise. He finished third in Bristol during the playoffs, showing he could manage tires in a chaotic race. He was 11th in Richmond and 9th in Phoenix earlier in the year -- two short, flat tracks on the schedule.

Smith's speed has been masked by late-race incidents, many of which weren't his own doing. That tells me he's due for positive regression. Given Smith's runs in Richmond and Phoenix, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets that on Sunday.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Kyle Larson to Win (+650)

Hendrick Motorsports seems to have struck gold with their sim work leading into Martinsville as the top three drivers in my model are now all in that shop after qualifying. The longest odds of the trio belong to Kyle Larson, and they're long enough for him to be a value.

Larson will start third after ranking 1st and 4th in my model's 10- and 20-lap practice splits, respectively. He was behind teammate Chase Elliott on the long run but ahead of William Byron, who sportsbooks have as the favorite after he won the pole.

After struggling here earlier in his career, Larson has become a force at Martinsville. In seven Next-Gen races, he has a win, two runner-ups, and just one finish worse than sixth. Flat tracks have not been his strong suit this year, but he did have a sixth-place average running position in New Hampshire during the playoffs. I've got him at 15.1% to punch his ticket to Phoenix with a win today.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Alex Bowman to Finish Top 5 (+600)

The fourth Hendrick driver is -- understandably -- much lower in the pecking order. But there's enough to like about Alex Bowman to back him at +600 for a top 5.

Bowman's practice pace lagged behind that of his teammates as he was 15th and 14th in my model's two practice splits. He also qualified 17th, so he will have to pick his way through traffic.

Flat tracks have been decent to him this year, though. He was runner-up in Richmond and had a 10th-place average running position in New Hampshire.

Even though Bowman is a former winner at Martinsville, it's certainly not his best track. In fact, that win is his lone career top-five here. Still, given Hendrick's shop-wide speed and Bowman's respectable runs on flat tracks, I do think he's worth a look at this number.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.