Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Hollywood Casino 400 in Kansas

Around a decade ago, the NASCAR Cup Series schedule was littered with 1.5-mile tracks. You had multiple dates in Charlotte and Texas plus a stop in Chicagoland, all of which have been trimmed down.

This weekend's race in Kansas will be the first race on a 1.5-mile track since Memorial Day weekend in Charlotte. It's easy to forget which drivers were thriving back then, and I think that's creating value in the betting markets.

A lot of the drivers who stand out to me in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds are guys who have been at their best on tracks like this but have struggled on the flatter tracks that have dominated the summer stretch. I'm willing to overlook that form in favor of what we've seen at more relevant stops.

Here are my model's pre-practice simulations, and then we can lay out the bets I like for Sunday's race.

NOTE: The sims have since been updated after qualifying.

NASCAR Predictions for Kansas

NASCAR Betting Picks for Kansas

Chase Briscoe to Win (+1600)

(UPDATE: Briscoe has since shortened to +1000 to win. He shortened due to winning the pole, but he's no longer a value for me at that number.)

Chase Briscoe is the exception on this list. His form on the flat tracks has been awesome.

To me, that makes his case even more compelling; we don't have to rely on older form data in order to justify betting him.

It's easy to forget that Briscoe had some really nice runs using the intermediate rules package earlier in the year. He was fourth in Homestead, fourth in Kansas, third in Charlotte, and runner-up in Dover. Those are all banked tracks. He also had a win at Pocono -- a flat track but with the same rules package -- mixed in there.

More recently, Briscoe won (and dominated) Darlington, another multi-groove track that features tire wear.

In other words, no matter what data you look at, Briscoe has had speed. And yet, we can get him at +1600 to win. I don't think that number should be available.

I've got Briscoe at 7.1% to win, fifth-highest in the field and above his 5.9% implied odds. Given I think my model is more likely to underrate than overrate him, I'm willing to bite at these odds.

Alex Bowman to Finish Top 5 (+350)

(UPDATE: Bowman has since lengthened to +650 to finish top 5. He did slip a bit in my sims, but I have him at 19.2% now. That's above his new 13.3% implied odds, so I do think Bowman's worth a look.)

Alex Bowman is a value to win at +2500 for me. Given he's the lone Hendrick Motorsports car no longer in the playoffs, though, I'd rather settle for just the top five.

Bowman historically has peaked at tracks that feature tire wear, which Kansas does. That has been true this year, too, as he was runner-up in Homestead and fifth in the first Kansas race.

Overall, the Cup Series has run seven Next-Gen races at Kansas. Bowman missed one of them, but he has finished top-10 in all of the other six, and he was top-5 twice. As a result, I do think the outright is in play even though he's not in the playoffs, but +350 for a top 5 is super attractive.

AJ Allmendinger to Finish Top 10 (+410)

(UPDATE: Allmendinger has since shortened to +310 to finish top 10. He had good practice speed, so he's now 35.1% to finish top 10 for me, making him a value at +310.)

At intermediate tracks, AJ Allmendinger has been a force all year. That's why I have value on him across the board, including to win at +10000. I'm way above market on this bet, though.

My model has Dinger in the top 10 a whopping 31.2% of the time, up from 19.6% implied. And, frankly, I get it.

The Cup Series has run seven races on either 1.5-mile tracks or Darlington this year. Allmendinger has been top-10 in four of those (with two top-fives), and he had issues in two of the exceptions.

Basically, whenever he finished, buddy was bookin'.

Homestead is one of Allmendinger's best tracks, and Kansas has plenty of overlap with it thanks to the tire wear. Charlotte and Darlington are similar, and Dinger had top-fives at both tracks this year.

I do think you could justify him at +1300 to finish top 5 with all of this in mind. There's a chance the model is overselling his upside, though, which is why I'd rather ride with the more conservative market.

Noah Gragson to Finish Top 10 (+900)

(UPDATE: Gragson has since shortened to +370 to finish top 10. He did go up in my sims -- to 20.9% -- but that's just a smidge below his new 21.3% implied odds.)

This is the kind of track that suits both Noah Gragson and Front Row Motorsports best, so I like him as a longshot top-10 play.

Gragson has just one top-10 this year at a non-drafting oval. That came in Charlotte, another 1.5-mile track with tire wear. He was 14th in Kansas and 14th in the recent Darlington race, so Charlotte wasn't a fluke. That run was also legitimized by a 10th-place average running position.

We've seen a similar pattern out of Gragson's teammate, Zane Smith, so I think this is just where those cars run best. Gragson had a top-10 here with Stewart-Haas Racing last year, and I've got him at 17.0% to do it again on Sunday. That provides us with plenty of value at just 10.0% implied odds.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Denny Hamlin to Win (+550)

I have practice numbers in my database dating back to 2019. In that 13-race span, Denny Hamlin has had great practice speed at Kansas only twice despite three wins.

Saturday marked the third such instance.

Hamlin trailed just Kyle Larson in my model's 10- and 20-lap splits. Larson's the favorite, but Hamlin's not that far behind. To me, they're the clear two best cars in the field.

In the other two times Hamlin was fast in practice, he won once (in 2023) and led 71 laps in the other (in 2024). I don't care about Hamlin's practice speed much (practice speed is less predictive of race pace for veteran drivers), but when he's fast, it should get your attention. I've got him at 18.3% to win, up from 15.4% implied.

Tyler Reddick to Finish Top 5 (+480)

23XI used to dominate Kansas but hasn't been on the same level of late. I think that's giving us a buy-low window on Tyler Reddick.

Unlike Hamlin, Reddick's practice times were just fine. He was 13th and 18th in the 10- and 20-lap splits of my model, respectively. He then qualified 12th.

Reddick has had decent upside on intermediate tracks, though. He finished runner-up in Darlington, had a sixth-place average running position in Charlotte, and was fourth in the spring Darlington race. It's not what we grew used to with Reddick last year, but that driver is still in there somewhere.

I've got Reddick at 24.3% to finish top 5, up from 17.2% implied. That's a big enough discount for me to buy in despite a middling season.

Michael McDowell to Finish Top 10 (+1000)

I've got Michael McDowell at double his implied odds, so even if my model is too high on him, we've got wiggle room to buy in.

McDowell had good speed on Saturday. He was 10th and 14th in the 10- and 20-lap practice splits, and he qualified 21st. That's better than you'd expect for someone at +1000 for a top 10.

Spire Motorsports has been at its best on intermediate tracks. Carson Hocevar has been a threat to win at places like Nashville, Charlotte, and Michigan, showing they've got upside. McDowell finished seventh in Charlotte and had a top-16 average running position in Vegas, Texas, Charlotte, Nashville, and Dover.

This team is on the ascent, and McDowell has the veteran savvy to capitalize on that. He was top-10 in Kansas last year with Front Row Motorsports, so I love him at this number.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.