Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Grant Park 165 in Chicago

The NASCAR in Chicago Street Race should be one of the most fun events of the year.

It's a unique concept run in a beautiful city, and the course has produced some ultra-fun racing both years they've gone there.

But Shane Van Gisbergen is here to spoil the party.

Not only did SVG win this race two years ago, but he also torched the field in Mexico City a few weeks ago. It all adds up to his being +195 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

The worst part? He deserves to be there.

My model has him at 30.7% to win, which isn't high enough to bet him (the implied odds at +195 are 33.9%), but he sucks up tons of win equity. That means it's hard to find value in outrights elsewhere.

It leaves us with a situation where -- as things stand -- I'm avoiding outrights entirely at FanDuel, sticking to top-five markets, instead.

Let's run through my model's full pre-practice simulations for the event, and then we can discuss which bets I like early in the week. Hopefully more value will open up later on as things re-open post-qualifying.

(NOTE: The sims have since been updated after practice and qualifying.)

NASCAR Predictions for the Chicago Street Race

NASCAR Betting Picks for the Chicago Street Race

Kyle Busch to Finish Top 5 (+500)

(UPDATE: Busch has since shortened to +440 to finish top 5. After adding in practice and qualifying data, he is no longer a value at that number.)

Kyle Busch has finished top-10 in both Chicago street races thus far, and he nearly won at COTA earlier this year. I don't know why his odds are this long.

In the inaugural running at Chicago, Busch benefited from strategy to finish fifth despite a 21st-place average running position. That one was a bit fluky.

But last year, he ran up front all day and finished ninth. There, he was just generally strong.

In 13 road-course races with Richard Childress Racing, Busch has 5 top-5 finishes, and he would have had another in Sonoma last year had he not gotten dumped on the last lap. I have Busch at 19.3% for a top-five here, and I agree with the model that the market is too low on him.

Joey Logano to Finish Top 5 (+1700)

(UPDATE: Logano has since shortened to +1100 to finish top 5. After adding in practice and qualifying data, he is no longer a value at that number.)

Similar to Busch, Joey Logano has a good enough history at Chicago where he looks like a great value here.

In the first running of the race, Logano had a 12th-place average running position and finished 8th. Last year, Logano had issues early, got pinned a lap down, and finished just 23rd.

Logano is generally a decent road racer, but the team tends to favor racing for stage points rather than going for wins when they know the car isn't good enough to contend. That's the biggest issue here as we don't care about stage points; we care just about where he finishes.

But even with that approach, Logano has 3 top-5s in 19 Next-Gen road-course races, a rate of 15.8%. I have him below that mark at 12.6%, but that's still well clear of his minuscule 5.6% implied odds. I'll take the risk that Logano prioritizes stage points when the payoff is this big.

Zane Smith to Finish Top 5 (+2800)

(UPDATE: Smith has since lengthened to +2900 to finish top 5. He's still a value for me there post-qualifying, but I also show value on him at +950 to finish top 10 if you prefer a route with higher odds of cashing.)

Zane Smith proved in the Craftsman Truck Series that he has talent on road courses. I can't ignore him at this number with that in mind.

Across his final two seasons in the Truck Series -- 2022 and 2023 -- Smith's worst road-course finish in five races was second. One of those losses was to Busch back when he was nearly unbeatable in the series. Smith beat Busch at COTA in 2023.

Things haven't been as great in the Cup Series, but Smith finished top-20 in all five road-course races last year, including a top-five at Watkins Glen. This year, he struggled at COTA and had issues in Mexico City, but Front Row Motorsports has a good road-course program.

I've still got faith Smith can flash his talent again. He's at just 5.1% to finish top 5 in my model, but with the implied odds at 3.5%, he's worth a roll of the dice to me.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Ross Chastain to Finish Top 10 (+230)

It's pretty clear the Chicago street course isn't Ross Chastain's best track. But he's someone I trust in wet conditions, which seem likely based on the forecast.

Chastain has finished 22nd each of the first two trips to Chicago (and that, fittingly, is where he'll start on Sunday). Both of those races involved rain, which puts a damper on the "Ross in the wet" theory.

However, back in 2021 at COTA, Chastain claimed his first career top 5 while running in the rain at COTA. It was before the Next-Gen car, but it was interesting how competitive he was there, given this was before he joined Trackhouse Racing and broke out.

With the incident rate in my model increased due to the rain, I have Chastain at 37.4% to finish top 10. That's high enough for me to pull the trigger despite his issues on this circuit.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Ryan Blaney to Finish Top 10 (+280)

Similar to Chastain, I had value on Ryan Blaney earlier in the week but held off. I think this is a good number to get him at.

Blaney had decent speed in practice on Saturday. After adjusting for group speed differentials, Blaney was 14th in single-lap pace and 12th in the average speed of his five fastest laps. He then qualified 17th, which isn't awful. It was fifth best among drivers in the first qualifying group as the track gained speed during the session.

Blaney's a decent road-racer. In 19 Next-Gen road course races, he has 6 top-10 finishes. That rate of 31.6% is above his 26.3% implied odds, and my model has him even a bit above that at 34.5%. One of those top-10s was in Chicago in the rain last year, so let's hope he can run it back today.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.