Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Enjoy Illinois 300 at Gateway

The first three NASCAR Cup Series races at Gateway have been pretty tough to predict.

None of the three winners -- Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, or Austin Cindric -- entered the weekend atop the odds board. That leads to my model viewing this track as somewhat volatile, flattening out the distribution of win equity.

As a result, I'm primarily showing value in longshots in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds. I don't necessarily want to chase all of that value, but I do think we can find ways to exploit the unpredictability.

Let's start by digging into those pre-practice sims, and then we can discuss which bets I like early in the week.

NOTE: The sims have since been updated after qualifying.

NASCAR Predictions for Gateway

NASCAR Betting Picks for Gateway

Carson Hocevar to Finish Top 5 (+500)

(UPDATE: Hocever has since lengthened to +750. He did fall a bit in the sims -- to 13.8% -- but that's high enough for him to be a value at the new odds.)

Gateway was one of Carson Hocevar's best intermediate races last year as he finished eighth. With Spire Motorsports' form much better now than it was then, I think we can get aggressive with Hocevar here.

Gateway is the site of Hocevar's Cup debut. He was running well, filling in for Corey LaJoie, until a tire issue ended his day. It seems like Hocevar has a good feel for this track in a Cup car.

In 2025, Hocevar has a runner-up in Nashville, along with top-10 runs in Indianapolis, Iowa, and Darlington, all of which are unique shapes, similar to Gateway. He also had a 10th-place average running position in Pocono, another track with flat, sweeping turns.

I've got value on Hocevar to win at +3500, and I don't mind sprinkling a bit on that. But he's 22.1% to finish top 5 for me, well above market at 16.7%, so this is a nice way to add some flexibility.

Alex Bowman to Finish Top 5 (+700)

(UPDATE: Bowman has since lengthened to +1100 to finish top 5. He did fall a bit in the sims -- to 12.7% -- but that's high enough for him to be a value at the new number.)

Hendrick Motorsports has been pretty hideous on flat tracks, which may make backing Alex Bowman feel odd. Bowman has been the exception, though, and he's undervalued this week.

In addition to finishing runner-up in Richmond, Bowman logged top-10s in Iowa and Indianapolis, other flat tracks. He was also seventh in Phoenix toward the start of the year.

Bowman has yet to finish better than 13th in Gateway, but some of that is due to bad luck. Given his form, I'm expecting a better showing this time around, and he's a quality value both to finish top 5 and to win (+4500) for me.

Erik Jones to Finish Top 10 (+380)

(UPDATE: Jones has since lengthened to +900 to finish top 10. I have him at 18.6% after qualifying, so he's a pretty major value at the lengthened odds.)

Most of Legacy MC's speed uptick has come on faster tracks, so backing Erik Jones at Gateway may feel odd. There have been some positives, though, that make me think +380 is too long.

The big one came in Nashville. That's not a flat track, necessarily, but it's not high-banked, either. There, Jones had a ninth-place average running position and finished seventh.

He backed that up in Pocono, which is high-speed but is super flat. There, Jones finished 13th and ran around there all day.

Once you add in the pace the team had in Darlington, it's clear they're reaching a new level, and based on Nashville and Pocono, it seems like that translates to flat tracks. As a result, I think Jones is a worthwhile gamble at +380, given we don't need him to spike and are still getting relatively long odds.

Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+750)

(UPDATE: Suarez has since lengthened to +1000 to finish top 10. He's now 15.8% for me, which is high enough for him to be a value at the new number.)

Daniel Suarez checks all the wrong boxes for Gateway:

• On his way out at Trackhouse Racing
• His replacement is already lined up
• His two teammates are fighting for their lives in the playoffs

He's not getting any attention here, nor should he.

Still, Suarez is coming off a strong run in Richmond, the most recent flat track on the schedule. He also was competitive in Pocono and Nashville, meaning he checks similar boxes to Jones.

Last year, the flatter tracks were good to Suarez as he had top-10s in Phoenix, Iowa, Indianapolis, and Richmond. He was also seventh at Gateway in 2023.

I think the model is too high on Suarez as it puts his top-10 odds at 20.2%. But the gap between that and the market (11.8%) is massive, so I'll still back him even if I'm not overly enthused about doing so.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Ryan Blaney to Win (+500)

Ryan Blaney was the favorite in my model entering the weekend, and then he put up blistering speed in practice Saturday. He got a big enough boost where he's now a value even at +500.

Blaney was first and second in my model's 10- and 20-lap splits, respectively, in practice. He then qualified fifth, giving him easy access to the front.

This isn't a huge surprise; Blaney was my pre-weekend favorite for a reason. He has been tremendous on flatter tracks, especially recently, including a third-place finish in Richmond, fourth in Iowa, third in Pocono, and a win in Nashville.

Penske has been great in Gateway with two wins, and Blaney would have been the winner last year if not for a fuel mishap. He was fourth and third the first two seasons, so I agree with the model that +500 is a good price.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Brad Keselowski to Finish Top 5 (+490)

Although Brad Keselowski will start 23rd, he has massive speed in this car, and he should be a contender for the win.

I mentioned above that Blaney was second in my model's 20-lap practice split; that's because Keselowski bested him, even after an adjustment for Keselowski's being in the faster practice group. He was second behind Blaney in the 10-lap split.

Keselowski has also been a threat on flat tracks. He was top-five in Indianapolis and Iowa along with top-10s in Pocono and Richmond. That comes after Keselowski finished third here last year.

If you want a cushier market, Keselowski is a value to finish top 10 at +140. However, I have him almost 10 percentage points above market to finish top 5, so I'm willing to be more aggressive.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Bubba Wallace to Finish Top 5 (+600)

Similar to Keselowski, I have value on Bubba Wallace to finish top 10, as well. He's got the pace to finish up front, though, so I like this route more.

As evidenced by his win in Indianapolis, Wallace is fast on flat tracks. He finished sixth in Iowa and had a great car in Richmond before eventually running into issues. He was also sixth at Nashville earlier in the year.

Gateway hasn't been kind to Wallace yet as his best finish in three races is 21st. That's a small sample, though, and he did win a Craftsman Truck Series race here back in 2014, so I'm going to side with the model.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.