Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Cook Out 400 in Richmond

With just two races left before the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, drivers on the outside looking in have only a couple chances left to flip their fortunes via a win.

Even though some of them have upside at a track like Richmond, it's the big dogs who are sucking up all the win equity in my betting model.

Because Richmond doesn't feature a ton of crashes, the best of the best tend to come to play here, leaving others with a thin route to victory. We did see an upset last year in Austin Dillon, but that's more the exception than the rule.

Due to the top-heavy nature, one of those studs is actually a value for me in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds. Let's dig into who that is, beginning with the pre-practice sims before outlining some bets I like early in the week.

NOTE: The sims have since been updated after qualifying.

NASCAR Predictions for Richmond

NASCAR Betting Picks for Richmond

Kyle Larson to Win (+800)

(UPDATE: Larson has since lengthened to +1600. To me, this is a massive overreaction to qualifying as Larson will start 30th. Qualifying doesn't matter a ton to me at a track where tire falloff matters so much, so I still have Larson at 11.0% to win. It's a bummer for those of us who took Larson early in the week, but if you're betting now, he's a great buy-low option at +1600.)

Even in an up-and-down summer, Kyle Larson has still flashed upside. I can't ignore that as we head to a track where he has had plentiful success.

Larson hasn't won since Kansas in May, a dry stretch we haven't seen often since he joined Hendrick Motorsports. Since then, he has five finishes of 28th or worse.

He did, though, show life at Dover, rallying from a poor start to finish fourth. Dover is another comfort track for Larson, giving me faith that he can still crank out a big showing every now and then.

Richmond could coax that out of him. Larson won here all the way back in 2017, before he ascended to superstardom. In six Next-Gen races, Larson has a win and three top-fives, one of which came last year when he led 144 laps. I've got him at 13.8%, high enough for me to show value even if we downgrade Larson more for his summer lull.

Alex Bowman to Finish Top 10 (+160)

(NOTE: Top-10s haven't been re-posted at FanDuel after qualifying, but I now have Bowman at 49.6% to finish top 10. This means I'm happy with the +160 we got earlier in the week.)

Of the tracks with tons of tire falloff -- a great archetype for Alex Bowman -- Richmond is likely his worst. Still, putting him at +160 for a top-10 does seem to sell him short.

Bowman has had a lot of the same struggles as his teammate, Larson, this year. He has had tons of really poor finishes, which is why he finds himself close to the playoff bubble. He needs these next two weeks to go well.

A lot of that has been due to bad luck, though. Bowman has still shown upside with seventh-place finishes at Iowa and Phoenix, two tracks that bear significant resemblance to Richmond.

Richmond also certainly isn't an awful track for Bowman, either. He does have a win here, and he has two top-10s in the Next-Gen era. I have him at 44.9% to do that again this week, which may be a smidge high, but I do agree that his 38.5% implied odds are too low.

Ty Gibbs to Finish Top 10 (+220)

(NOTE: Top-10s haven't been re-posted post-qualifying at FanDuel, but I now have Gibbs at 35.7% to finish top 10, making +220 a value still.)

Although Richmond hasn't been a great track for Ty Gibbs, he has shown promise at spots with lots of tire falloff. That should translate here eventually.

Two of Gibbs' best tracks during his career have been Bristol and Darlington. At Darlington, the tire wear is a constant menace. At Bristol, it comes and goes, but even when the tires haven't degraded, it's still a spot where the optimal groove changes throughout a run. That gives it some overlap with Richmond, even if the banking at the two tracks couldn't be more different.

Gibbs' best Richmond run came in 2023 when he turned a 13th-place average running position into a ninth-place finish. He has had two other top-14 average running positions across three additional races as a full-timer, so more top-10s will follow. I'm hoping that will start this weekend.

Post-Qualifying Addition: William Byron to Win (+1400)

William Byron's in the same boat as Larson where I'm way off market on him, and I can't figure out why. I'm willing to take the discount, though.

Byron will start much better than his teammate, up in 14th spot. He was 6th in the 10-lap split of my practice model (which included adjustments for group speed differentials) and was 11th in the 20-lap split. It's certainly not amazing, but it's not bad.

That could also describe Byron's history at Richmond. Although he has just one career top-five here, he has led 100-plus laps twice in six Next Gen races. He's coming off a win at Iowa, which is a similar length and track shape, and he was runner-up in Darlington, where tire wear is paramount. I think +1400 is too long with how well he's running.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Chase Briscoe to Finish Top 5 (+360)

Chase Briscoe was runner-up to Byron in Iowa, part of a top-notch stretch of form in his first year with Joe Gibbs Racing.

Briscoe has finished top-five in four of his past five races, and the lone exception was Indianapolis, which is about as different from Richmond as you can get. He also had top-10s in Martinsville and Bristol this year, showing his quality form on short tracks.

Richmond is Briscoe's worst track among the short, flat tracks as he's 0-for-8 in snagging top-10s here. This is far and away the best equipment he has had, though, and he has finished 12th or better 3 times. I don't mind buying in despite the track history with how hot he has been of late.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.