Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Championship Race at Phoenix

All season long, the talk centered around how tough Team Penske would be to beat at Phoenix.

But now, with no Penske cars in the final, it's anybody's game.

With that said, my model does pinpoint one driver as being the favorite.

All four of Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, William Byron, and Kyle Larson figure to be strong this weekend. But my model is giving the edge to a driver who went through a lull over the summer but clinched his spot in this race with a bang this past week in Martinsville.

Let's start there, laying out my model's sims for who will win the championship. Then, we can dig into sims for the race and my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

NOTE: The sims and championship odds have since been updated after qualifying.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Predictions

NASCAR Predictions for Phoenix

NASCAR Betting Picks for Phoenix

William Byron to Win the Race (+440)

(UPDATE: Byron has since shortened to +390 to win. However, he's also now up to 27.7% in my sims thanks to great long-run speed in practice, so he is still the best value on the board for me.)

If you want to bet Byron +270 to win the championship -- thereby avoiding Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, and others -- you can. I've got value there, too. But once you give Byron and the rest the typical bump championship contenders get, he's a value to win the race.

Byron was the dominant car last week, leading 304 laps and ending Blaney's run of dominance at Martinsville. He has been fast on flatter tracks all year long with a win in Iowa plus top-fives in New Hampshire and Nashville. He also led 83 laps in the spring race at Phoenix.

This team had a lull over the summer, but they've had tons of dominant races this year, many of which didn't result in wins. It shows that they've got gobs of upside, though, and they'll need that to win here. I'm willing to bank on Byron doing it again, given how high the model is on him relative to the market.

Austin Cindric to Finish Top 10 (+210)

(UPDATE: Cindric has since lengthened to +220 to finish top 10. Given he was fast in practice and qualified fourth, I don't get that. He's up to 42.8% for me, and he's also a quality value at +750 for a top 5.)

Last week at Martinsville, Austin Cindric had his fourth top-10 average running position in eight races on shorter, flatter tracks this year. It didn't result in a top-10 finish, but I think that's allowing us to get him at a discount.

We've seen the same pattern a bunch of times with Cindric: he runs well early only to fade late. It's a concern and could mean the car just gets worse as the race goes along. Personally, I think it's more of an indicator of positive regression coming his way.

One of those quality races was in Phoenix where he had a 12th-place average running position before ultimately finishing 19th. We know how good Penske cars are at this track, and we've seen Cindric have that pace at other flat tracks, as well. As a result, I agree with the model that Cindric's worth a bet at just +210.

Brad Keselowski to Finish Top 10 (+310)

(UPDATE: Keselowski has since lengthened to +410. After dinging him for poor speed Saturday, my model has him at 21.4% to finish top 10. That's a value at the new number, but the margin is slim, and I'm not feeling great about it as things stand.)

It's very possible RFK Racing has turned the page to next year with nothing to race for in 2025. They're a savvy organization, and that's likely the proper move. I just have a hard time passing up Brad Keselowski at such long odds.

Some of Keselowski's best runs this year have come on tracks like Phoenix. At Iowa, he had a chance to win, ultimately finishing third with a fourth-place average running position. He was also ninth at Richmond, and he had a 15th-place average running position in Gateway.

New Hampshire and Martinsville were rougher, lending credence to the theory that they're focusing on 2026. I just have enough faith in Keselowski as a driver to think he could still eek out a top-10 even with that being true.

Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+1300)

(UPDATE: Suarez has since shortened to +900 to finish top 10. He was good enough in practice where I've got him 18.1% now, which is lower than he was earlier in the week but still above his new implied odds.)

This will be Daniel Suarez's final race with Trackhouse Racing as he departs to make way for Connor Zilisch next year. The "checked out" concerns are elevated as a result, but this is a good spot for Suarez to go out on a high note.

In seven Next-Gen Phoenix races, Suarez has two top-10s, an 11th, and a 13th. It's generally a good track for him.

We saw that same pace over the summer in Richmond. There, Suarez had an eighth-place average running position and finished seventh. He wasn't as strong in other flat tracks during the playoffs, but incidents tainted his finishes in some of them.

As a result, I have Suarez at 19.2% to finish top 10, which could very well be too high once you consider his impending departure. But I also think that 7.1% implied odds is too low, so I'm willing to have him on my betslip regardless.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Alex Bowman to Finish Top 10 (+260)

Although this is Alex Bowman's home track, it generally hasn't been a great spot for him. He showed me enough on Saturday, though, where this looks like a value.

Before qualifying 8th, Bowman ranked 18th and 12th in my model's 10- and 20-lap practice splits, respectively. That's good speed relative to these odds.

It also helps that Bowman has run better at this track of late. He was seventh here in the spring, giving him two top-10s in his past five Phoenix races. We also know Hendrick Motorsports has placed a heavy emphasis on figuring out this track due to their struggles in past championship races. Thus, I won't push back on the model, which has Bowman at 32.0% for a top 10.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Bubba Wallace to Finish Top 10 (+300)

Other than New Hampshire, flat tracks have been kind to Bubba Wallace this year. I think we'll see that continue today.

Throughout the year, Wallace has finished third in Martinsville, sixth in Nashville, sixth in Iowa, and eighth in Gateway. He also was a contender for the win in Richmond before running into issues.

Although that speed has dried up the past couple relevant races, Wallace was fast in practice. He ranked inside the top 10 of both the 10- and 20-lap splits in my model. He should be able to work his way forward from a 23rd-place starting position.

I do have a bit of value on Wallace to finish top 5 at +1000. However, the better -- and more forgiving -- value is here as I have Wallace at 29.9% for a top 10.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Erik Jones to Finish Top 10 (+750)

Phoenix was a good track for Erik Jones early in his career but has been less so recently. I think he was good enough Saturday for us to ping him for a long-shot top-10 bet.

Jones finished top-10 in Phoenix in each of his first three trips here as a full-time driver. He added another three races later but hasn't returned to the top-10 since. He has just two finishes better than 20th here in the Next-Gen era.

Jones did look good on Saturday, though. He was 13th in both of my model's practice splits, and he qualified 15th. The market doesn't seem to have reacted much to those showings.

After qualifying, I have Jones at 20.9% to finish top 10, nearly double where the market has him. I understand the skepticism, given his recent history here, but there's enough speed where I want him on my betslip.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.