Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Bank of America ROVAL 400 in Charlotte

Shane Van Gisbergen is always tough to top on road courses, having won four straight this year.

But when you force most of his stiffest competition to race for points, things slant even more in his favor.

Christopher Bell, William Byron, and Chase Briscoe have all shown upside on road courses this year, but none of them are locked into the next round of the playoffs. Bell and Byron have a good edge over the cutline, but nothing is definitive yet.

Even without accounting for that, my model has Van Gisbergen winning 43.4% of the time. That's not high enough to bet him -- he's +100 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds -- but it's enough to push me off the outright market entirely.

Which other bets do I like before practice and qualifying? Let's dig in and lay it all out.

NOTE: The sims have since been updated after qualifying.

NASCAR Predictions for the Charlotte ROVAL

NASCAR Betting Picks for the Charlotte ROVAL

Chase Briscoe to Finish Top 5 (+260)

(UPDATE: Although Briscoe is still +260 to finish top 5, he has slid in my model to 21.0%. Thus, I would no longer recommend him at this number.)

Of the three listed above, Briscoe's the one most likely to race for stage points. That hurts his finishing projection in a big way.

Still, it's a long race, and he has been good on road courses. I want him on my betslip despite the concerns.

Briscoe enters with top-fives in two straight road races (runner-up in Sonoma, fifth in Watkins Glen). He was also seventh in Mexico City earlier this year.

Briscoe showed talent on road courses with Stewart-Haas Racing but lacked consistency without top-end equipment. He's got that now, and he's turning it into good runs.

Even with SHR, he had a top-10 here in 2022, and he led at least 30% of the laps in all three Xfinity Series races he ran at the ROVAL. That's why I have faith Briscoe can come through even if he does rack up points early.

Kyle Busch to Finish Top 5 (+750)

(UPDATE: Busch has since lengthened to +950 to finish top 5. That lengthening is justified due to poor speed Saturday, and Busch is down to 13.6% to finish top 5 for me. That's enough for him to be a value -- both at the original number and the new one -- but I feel less confident about it after the rough Saturday.)

In theory, a Kyle Busch top-10 bet is the better play with his upside in doubt due to terrible form.

However, I want to lower my financial exposure to Busch. That means shooting for higher upside so I can benefit if Busch reaches his potential while reducing my risk should he continue taking a dump all over the track.

Busch hasn't had a top-10 in four straight, and his last top-5 was the weekend after July 4th. It led to a crew-chief change, effective this weekend, so this situation is nasty.

Still, that aforementioned July top-five was at the Chicago street course. He was also fifth in COTA after nearly winning that race. In 16 road-course races with Richard Childress Racing, Busch has 6 top-5s, a 37.5% rate.

I've got Busch well below that at 20.9%. His poor form matters. But his implied odds are just 11.8%. Thus, I think a "swing-for-the-fences" approach is the better play than placing a larger bet on Busch to finish top 10.

Ryan Preece to Finish Top 10 (+270)

(UPDATE: Although Preece is still +270 to finish top 10, he has slid in my model due to poor speed Saturday. Thus, I would no longer recommend him at this number.)

Ryan Preece's road-course form with RFK Racing has been top-notch, and he has had success at Charlotte in the past. With points-racing not a consideration, I like getting Preece on my card.

Preece has had a top-17 average running position in all five road-course races this year. Four of those have resulted in top-15 finishes, including a 7th-place run in Chicago.

We saw glimpses of this earlier in his career. Preece was fourth at the Charlotte ROVAL in the Xfinity Series in 2018, and he was 11th with SHR in 2023. That makes me more willing to believe in the form we've seen from him.

I've got Preece at 38.0% to finish top 10, up from 27.0% implied. He's not a bad option as a long-shot top-5 bet at +950, either.

Post-Qualifying Addition: William Byron to Win (+2200)

Although Byron qualified 13th, he had good pace in practice. That gives me faith in him at a surprisingly long number.

Byron ranked 8th and 4th in my model's 4- and 8-lap practice splits, respectively, showing he was able to control his tire falloff better than some competitors.

This is also a good track for Byron. He has been on the podium each of the past two years, and he led 20-plus laps in three straight races earlier in his career, before he took a step up on road courses. Overall, in 22 Next-Gen road course races, Byron has two wins and five podiums, so I don't think the model is overselling him too much at 7.2%.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Ryan Blaney to Finish Top 5 (+700)

Because Ryan Blaney has already advanced to the Round of 8, he'll be free to take the winning pit strategy this week. That's enough for me to get on board at a long number.

Blaney's Saturday speed wasn't bad. He qualified 11th after ranking 9th and 14th in my model's 4- and 8-lap splits, respectively.

That comes after one of his best road-course races during the Next-Gen era. Blaney had a fifth-place average running position in Watkins Glen and finished sixth.

Charlotte has been Blaney's best road course as he won the inaugural race here with 1 additional top 5 and 5 total top 10s in 7 races. The model doesn't care about his win, given how long ago it was, and it still has him at 17.2% to finish top 5.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Joey Logano to Finish Top 10 (+280)

Joey Logano is just 13 points above the cutline, so points will be his focus. That's why I can't take his top-5 mark (+950) despite showing value. I do think he can claw back for a top-10, though.

Similar to Blaney, this is Logano's best road course. He has finished top 10 here in six of seven races with a pair of top-fives, as well. Last year, he finished second in both stages and still finished eighth in the race, showing he's not out of play here despite the points racing.

Logano has been top-10 in just one road-course race this year, but he was 11th in Chicago and 14th in Watkins Glen. They haven't been awful. That pushes me to take the value in Logano, who is 34.1% to finish top 10 for me.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+500)

Daniel Suarez was one of the faster mid-pack cars in practice, so +500 for a top 10 is enticing.

Suarez ranked 7th in both the 4- and 8-lap practice splits of my model. He qualified 20th, but it does seem like the car has race pace.

Even while racing most of the season as a lame duck, Suarez has still been decent on road courses. He is coming off a seventh-place run in Watkins Glen, and he was a respectable 14th in Sonoma.

While Suarez has no top-10s in Charlotte, he has had a top-13 average running position three times. Given the pace he showed in practice, it's fair to think he's not totally lost at this track or checked out on the season. The model has him well above market, so I'm willing to give him a swipe.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which drivers stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.