Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Daytona 500

Transitioning from betting other sports to betting NASCAR can be a little jarring.

In the NFL, you're typically laying -110 on a side or total. Same thing when you're betting things such as NBA player props.

In NASCAR, we sometimes have to be comfortable betting longshots in order to find value. That's especially true for the Daytona 500.

It's a wide-open race where most cars in the field have at least some hope of a win. That's why nobody is shorter than +1100 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

My model's even more pessimistic than that, putting every driver's win odds at 6.1% or lower. Thus, we're going to have to come out of the gates swinging.

Luckily, I do see solid value in some of those longshots. The odds these bets win are low, and we should bet accordingly, but they're still good bets -- in my eyes -- with where the markets stand.

Let's see what stands out before cars hit the track Wednesday for qualifying.

Daytona 500 NASCAR Betting Picks

Chris Buescher to Win (+2400)

(UPDATE: Buescher has since lengthened to +2500. He's starting sixth, so I think his odds should have shortened, instead. I'm very much still on board with +2500, and he's now the biggest value on the board for me.)

Chris Buescher already has a Daytona win on his ledger, capturing the flag here in the summer 2023 race. His overall body of work on pack tracks is impressive enough for me to back him at a forgiving number.

Even before the win, Buescher was strong at this track. He has 5 top-5s in 18 races, a rate of 27.8%. That's the fifth best rate of any active driver at the track. His 44.4% top-10 rate is the best of that group.

This strength has been there during the Next-Gen era (since the start of the 2022 season), as well. He finished fourth in the 2023 Daytona 500 and was third in Talladega (another pack track) that year.

My model has Buescher at 5.0% to win, up from his implied odds of 4.0%. If my model's right, this bet loses 95% of the time, but I think this is one of the better bets available right now.

Austin Cindric to Win (+2800); Cindric to Finish Top 5 (+360)

(UPDATE: Cindric has since shortened to +1800 and +300, respectively. The top-five market is no longer a value, but I am still showing a bit on him to win. My model has Cindric at 6.0%, up from 5.3% implied.)

Although we ran through Buescher first, Austin Cindric is the most undervalued driver in the field, according to my numbers.

Cindric -- like Buescher -- already has a win here. He did that in the 2022 500, his first race as a full-time Cup Series driver. He was third in the summer race that year, as well.

With Cindric, you know he'll always be in contention. In 18 Next-Gen pack races, he has had a top-10 average running position 8 times. He did this in four of six races last year, and his worst average running position was 12th.

There's a big difference between running up front and finishing there, but Cindric has proven he has the chops to capitalize. In addition to the 500 win, he has four other top-fives across those 18 pack races. In the Xfinity Series (NASCAR's equivalent of a Triple-A), Cindric won at Daytona in 2021, too.

My model has Cindric among the favorites -- alongside his Penske teammates Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano -- at 6.0% to win. That's well clear of his implied odds of 3.5%, making him my preferred outright.

I've also got value on his top-five market as the model puts him at 24.5% there, up from 21.7% implied. That's the one non-longshot bet I'm willing to fire on as things stand.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Corey LaJoie to Finish Top 10 (+550)

(UPDATE: LaJoie has since shortened to +480 to finish top 10. That's still a value for me with his implied odds at 17.2% while my model has him at 19.5%.)

Corey LaJoie isn't running the full NASCAR Cup Series schedule this year, nor is his team with Rick Ware Racing. That hurts his outlook as both the equipment and the crew are less than what other drivers are working with.

Even after that downgrade, I have a hard time ignoring him at this number.

LaJoie is a good pack racer. In 18 pack races during the Next-Gen era, he has five top-10 finishes (27.8%). That doesn't include an Atlanta race in 2022 that he nearly won but crashed on the final lap and finished 21st.

My model expects regression from that number. It puts his top-10 odds at just 19.5% here. But that's still well above his implied odds of 15.4%.

The equipment shouldn't push us off, either. Rick Ware Racing has run 30 pack races since the start of 2022, and their team-wide top-10 rate is 20.0%. Given LaJoie's likely more skilled than a good chunk of the drivers in the sample, I'm comfortable plugging him at this number despite some valid concerns.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Todd Gilliland to Win (+3400)

Todd Gilliland's Daytona 500 odds have pinballed all over the place. He was as long as +7500 over the offseason, and he was in the 20s as early as this morning.

Now that he's back out to +3400, he's a value for me.

My model has Gilliland at 3.8% to win, up from 2.9% implied. He gets there thanks to some stellar runs on pack tracks in the Cup Series.

Across the six pack races last year, Gilliland had a top-13 average running position four times. He led 16 laps in the Daytona 500 and 58 in Atlanta. While he turned that into just one top-10 finish, the skill was there.

We saw a bit of this in the Truck Series, too, where Gilliland podiumed in two of four races at Talladega. His team -- Front Row Motorsports -- won the 500 just a couple of years ago with Michael McDowell, and with their equipment showing even more pace last year, I think Gilly has the upside to get the job done.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to Finish Top 5 (+700)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has won 11.1% of the Next-Gen-era pack races. And yet, his implied odds to finish top 5 are 12.5%. Seems low!

Count me in.

One of those wins was the 2023 Daytona 500. The other was in Talladega last year. In addition to those, he was fourth in the other 2024 Talladega race, giving him a 16.7% top-5 rate across relevant races.

My model expects some regression, pegging him at 14.0%. That's still above market, though, allowing me to add another proven winner to the card.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 5 (+1100)

Daniel Suarez is another guy with a win at a pack track on his resume, getting that in Atlanta last year. Again, I think we should trust the track record.

Most of Suarez's success at pack tracks in the Next-Gen car has come at Atlanta. Of his nine top-10s in this span, five have come in Atlanta.

He does, though, have a seventh-place finish at Daytona and three top-10s in Talladega. To me, this means it's possbile he's just generally a good pack racer.

Because this is a deviation from Suarez's past -- he crashed a ton on these tracks in the lower series -- my model is still skeptical. It puts his top-five odds at 10.9%. That, though, is more than two percentage points above his implied odds at 8.3%. Of all the top-five bets on the board, this is my favorite, even above Stenhouse.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.