Week 12's Thursday night clash is a battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns. This is shaping up to be your typical tough, rugged matchup between two AFC North squads playing in the cold.

This features the lowest total of the week at 36.5 -- which is partially thanks to the weather forecast. Cleveland is pretty much in tank mode at 2-8 while Pittsburgh is 8-2, carrying the lowest odds to win the AFC North (-160).

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Thursday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Steelers at Browns NFL Betting Picks

Under 36.5 Points (-105)

As previously mentioned, this is the lowest total of Week 12's matchups. This is about as low as it gets, yet the under still looks like the best side to take.

The weather is a big concern in this one as the forecast is calling for a storm with mixes of rain and snow while the temperatures will be in the 30s. Fortunately, the winds are shifting in the ideal direction with gusts reaching 12 miles per hour (MPH), whereas earlier in the week, the forecast was calling for winds past 20 MPH.

Regardless, nasty weather like this should take away from the passing games. Cleveland has the second-highest pass play rate in the league, which is partially boosted by a ton of negative game scripts. Additionally, Pittsburgh's air attack has taken off thanks to Russell Wilson's 7.8 yards per passing attempt and 8.7-yard average depth of target (ADOT). Prior to Week 11's -0.30 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) -- via NFL Next Gen Stats -- Wilson was touting 0.14 EPA/db over his first three starts of the season. That balance could be in danger in bad weather.

Furthermore, there should be worry about each team's ability to protect the QB. Each squad is in the top three of Pro Football Focus' pass rushing grade, and the Browns carry the fifth-highest sack rate. Both teams are also among the bottom eight teams in PFF's pass blocking grade. Thursday should feature plenty of big plays from T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett. Each pass rush could be down some players, though; Garrett didn't practice on Tuesday (hip) and Pittsburgh's Alex Highsmith has yet to practice this week due to an ankle setback.

Still, each offensive line hasn't been great in pass protection, sitting in the bottom six in sack rate allowed. Between pressure concerns and bad weather, there will likely be fewer drop backs for each team. That suggests a slow pace that could melt the clock.

Pittsburgh already carries the second-highest rush play rate across the league, and the Browns will probably be content with keeping this game ugly by running the rock in bad weather. Give me the under.

Steelers -3.5 (-112)

Ultimately, the Steelers are the much better team. Cleveland holds the third overall pick for the 2025 NFL Draft right now, and Pittsburgh is tied for the fourth-best record in the NFL.

numberFire's game projections have the Steelers winning 26.7-20.0 while Massey Ratings favor Pittsburgh 23-17. While I disagree with where the total is in each of these models -- which could not be accounting for bad weather -- the margin in the Steelers' favors feels accurate. numberFire is giving Pittsburgh a 58.5% likelihood to cover compared to the -112 odds' 52.8% implied probability.

This game will likely come down to the run game. As the season progresses, this department becomes more and more important, partially due to weather changes in cold environments. The Steelers have a much higher chance of winning this category compared to the Browns.

Our first piece of evidence is Pittsburgh holds the third-best schedule-adjusted rush defense while Cleveland touts the eighth-worst mark. Neither offense holds exceptional marks as the Steelers have the 11th-worst adjusted rush offense while the Browns hold the 7th-worst unit. Still, Pittsburgh is used to spamming the run with the second-highest rush play rate, and Cleveland has only a 34.1% rush play percentage (second-lowest).

The Browns have shown some hesitance to give Nick Chubb a full workload as he has yet to surpass 16 carries, and his snap rate has eclipsed 36% in only one of four appearances. He's logging only -0.35 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) thus far. Jerome Ford is still getting decent work with snap rates surpassing 45% in back-to-back games, but his efficiency has been putrid at -2.39 RYOE/C during that span.

For Pittsburgh, Jaylen Warren is averaging 4.8 yards per carry over his last three contests, and Najee Harris continues to be a workhorse with 19.8 rushing attempts per contest and 4.2 yards per carry over his last four. This is the far more trustworthy unit thanks to the Steelers' 14th-best run blocking grade compared to Cleveland's 4th-worst mark.

The defenses alone shows which team will likely win the run game, for Pittsburgh gives up only 4.1 yards per carry (fifth-fewest) compared to the Browns surrendering 4.8 yards per rushing attempt (sixth-most).

In addition, the Steelers carry the 2nd-best turnover margin (+1.1) while the Brownies have the 10th-worst margin (-0.5). Losing the turnover battle and run game looks imminent for Cleveland, and that will likely be a death blow in Thursday night's cold, ugly weather.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.