5 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 11

Week 11's NFL slate gives us some quality spots where we can buy low on superstars and get exposure to players whose roles are on the ascent.

Who stands out, and which prop markets suit them best?

Let's dig into my favorite prop bets this week in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Prop Picks for Week 11

Bijan Robinson Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Atlanta Falcons have had some tough matchups and odd situations recently, and that has opened a window for us to buy into Bijan Robinson at a discount.

The Falcons enter this game having lost four straight, which leads to more negative game scripts. It has resulted in Robinson going under 72.5 rushing yards in all but one, which was their overtime game in Berlin last week. They also had a date with the New England Patriots in there, and they've let up the second-lowest opponent-adjusted explosive run rate to running backs this year. We should expect Robinson's numbers to slide in those circumstances.

This week should be better. The Falcons are 3.5-point favorites at home against the Carolina Panthers. Carolina has let up explosives to backs, even back in Week 3 when they blanked the Falcons, 30-0. Robinson's 13 carries there turned into 72 yards.

Robinson has gone over this number in 15 of 26 games since Zac Robinson took over as offensive coordinator, a rate of 57.7%. With Atlanta favored, I like Robinson's odds of adding to that tally on Sunday.

Chase Brown Over 78.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards (-112)

The presence of Joe Flacco and likely absence of Samaje Perine combine to make Chase Brown a value at this number.

With Perine going down in Week 9 due to an ankle injury, Brown played a whopping 95.4% of the snaps. They'll have Tahj Brooks more prepared if Perine sits, but Brown should still rock at least an 80% snap rate.

The passing-game work was big there as Brown finished with 14 targets in addition to his 11 carries. It allowed him to rack up 112 yards from scrimmage, his third straight game in triple digits. He was at 49 in Flacco's other start, but having competent quarterback play has made Brown's path far easier.

The Pittsburgh Steelers' defense has been roughly a middling matchup for backs this year, so I don't fear that too much. There are enough positive factors in Brown's corner for me to love the over here.

Calvin Austin to Record 50-Plus Receiving Yards (+220)

When healthy, Calvin Austin III has had a solid role this year. This number undersells his workload.

In the games he has played, Austin has 18.2% of the Steelers' overall targets and 44% of the deep targets. That latter number is key for an alt market as it allows him to rack up yardage in a hurry.

Despsite the usage, Austin has still cashed this market in just two of seven games, a rate that doesn't justify +220 odds. However, the underlying workload says his production should increase, and a date with the Cincinnati Bengals' stanky defense can ignite that. I'm willing to bet on that regression hitting on Sunday.

Nico Collins Under 74.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

As much as I adore Nico Collins, this is a lofty number for a guy playing with a backup quarterback in a potential positive game script.

Collins did erupt with Davis Mills last week, turning 15 targets into 136 yards. He also had 75 the week before with Mills playing most of the game.

This is a different setup, though. The Houston Texans are playing on the road in moderate winds as 5.5-point favorites. The Tennessee Titans have had a leaky rush defense, meaning if the Texans don't want to pump Mills big volume -- which they shouldn't -- they may not have to. That wasn't an option last week when they were trailing by three scores in the fourth quarter.

Collins is freaky enough to blow past this number, so I understand if you'd rather pass. There are just enough factors pushing me toward the under that I'm willing to take it.

Jerry Jeudy Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

With 23 mph winds in the forecast Sunday in Cleveland, I'm not expecting much from the Cleveland Browns' offense. Add some spread out market shares to the mix, and Jerry Jeudy seems ripe for an under.

With Cedric Tillman back, the Browns have a lotta mouths to feed. That may seem odd, given Jeudy had 12 targets in Tillman's return, but even that puts his target share for the season at 20.6%. Those targets aren't necessarily hyper-efficient, either, with Dillon Gabriel at quarterback.

As the Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten healthier, they've returned to their suffocating ways. They've let up just 41 points the past 3 games and now get to face one of the worst offenses in the league. That pushes me toward unders, and Jeudy is my favorite option of the bunch.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.