5 Best NBA Bets and Player Props for Saturday 1/4/25

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

Today's Best NBA Bets and Player Props

Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers

Over 233.0 Points (-110)
Myles Turner Over 14.5 Points (-113)

We could be in for a shootout in Circle City.

The Phoenix Suns welcomed Devin Booker back to the lineup on New Year's Eve, changing the outlook of their offense entirely. Even if Bradley Beal (hip) ends up sitting, the Suns have a 123.9 offensive rating (ORTG) in five games where Booker and Kevin Durant played without him. The offense could arguably be better.

Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers remain one of the NBA's most over-friendly squads with a bottom-10 defensive rating (115.3 DRTG) and top-10 mark in tempo. Their dynamic duo of bigs have to love the proposition of Jusuf Nurkic (suspension) remaining out this evening.

Indiana's 71.4% over rate at home is second-best in the NBA, and Phoenix's identical rate of overs on the road (71.4%) can meet the challenge.

One of the reasons the Pacers should score is the size discrepancy I mentioned moments ago.

Nurkic has been in and out of the Suns' lineup constantly, forcing the team to cede the second-most points per game to the center position (26.0). They've also allowed the 10th-most paint points per game (48.9).

Enter Myles Turner. Turner is averaging 15.1 points per game this season, and he's topped this mark in five of seven contests. Phoenix is an outlier matchup in the other direction, so your guess is as good as mine on this total's existence.

FanDuel Research's daily NBA projections expect 17.9 median points from Turner tonight.

Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs

Spurs +3 (-112)
Nikola Jokic Under 53.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-108)

Oddly enough, the San Antonio Spurs might be the Denver Nuggets' kryptonite.

San Antonio has now won two consecutive straight up (SU) games against the 2023 NBA Champions, and they've covered four of their last five games against the spread (ATS) that Victor Wembanyama has been active. Wemby's alien-like activities have led to 26.2 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 4.0 blocks per game in that stretch, matching the size of Nikola Jokic.

In a home-and-home situation on a back-to-back, there's no doubt the Spurs should actually improve their outlook after winning Friday. Now at home, they're also playing a significantly deeper rotation than Denver without Aaron Gordon (calf).

Denver's net rating (NRTG) in games without Gordon is just +3.4. San Antonio's is +1.7 in games Wemby and Chris Paul both played. These teams just aren't very different right now.

One of the reasons I'd personally favor San Antonio outright is just how much the Nuggets are loading up Nikola Jokic's plate.

Jokic logged 37.0 minutes per game in December and played that exact mark last night. In the playoffs, it's not as big of a deal with no back-to-backs, yet currently, Denver is asking for that workload with a 30.0% usage rate, 22.2 rebounds chances, and 16.4 potential assists per game.

This is a bet on him being human at this stage.

In three back-to-backs without Gordon, Jokic is averaging 34.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 6.0 assists -- totaling 50.0 points, rebounds, and assists (PRA). Of course he is. He's tired. The rebounding averages are most suppressed.

Our projections expect just 50.2 median PRA in this one. The under is the side.

Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Clippers

Hawks Under 110.5 Points (-115)

I'm a bit surprised this line exists given the injury report yesterday.

The Atlanta Hawks listed Trae Young (hand), Jalen Johnson (shoulder), and Bogdan Bogdanovic (leg) as questionable before they faced the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday. We'll see if all three play against the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday.

Key absences could make this lofty team total insane value tonight, but there's a reason to take it just based on the team's recent performances, too. Over Atlanta's last 10 games, their ORTG (112.3) and DRTG (112.2) have drifted toward the middle of the pack despite the league's second-fastest pace in this time. They're just about pace at this stage.

L.A. brings pretty excellent defensive vibes into this one, too. Kawhi Leonard's season debut should have the Inuit Dome, a building where the Clips' DRTG is 107.0, rocking. Plus, Los Angeles is a huge downgrade in tempo (23rd) that Leonard won't improve.

Atlanta has missed their team total in two straight before this back-to-back situation. I'm not sure this is the environment to get back on track.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.