4 NFL DFS Value Picks for Week 13
Finding value is a key part of NFL DFS on FanDuel. We need to identify the low-salary players who have the potential to pay huge dividends, which allows you to play studs elsewhere in your lineup.
As always, we're looking at players on the main slate, which kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published. We'll reference our NFL DFS projections.
NFL DFS Value Plays for Week 13
Will Levis, Titans
FanDuel Salary: $6,700
Don't look now, but Will Levis is playing his way out of a spot where the Tennessee Titans are guaranteed to replace him.
The team's win in Houston last week hurt their draft position, but it's because Levis -- outside of another meme-worthy pick six -- played extremely well. Levis completed 75.0% of his throws at 11.6 yards per attempt (YPA), hitting some big bombs down the field.
Mr. Mayo won't grade out well in expected points added per drop back (EPA/db), taking 20 sacks in the last three weeks, but he still ranks a manageable 18th in that category (0.01) over this stretch of anyone with 25-plus pass attempts. The sacks have reduced the turnovers, at least.
Since we don't lose fantasy points for sacks, Levis has -- quietly -- become a somewhat mobile option in the value tier with yardage upside. I think we can accept him as a punt in solid matchups like this one -- a road date with the Washington Commanders, who are numberFire's eighth-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense.
Our NFL DFS projections give Levis the sixth-best value score at quarterback on the main slate, and they project him for 15.9 FanDuel points (FDP).
He's a great value stack with Calvin Ridley ($6,800); Ridley has drawn a 27.3% target share since Levis returned.
Jaylen Warren, Steelers
FanDuel Salary: $5,800
Early-season injuries delayed what seemed to be the inevitable. Jaylen Warren is slowly taking over the Pittsburgh Steelers backfield.
For the first time all season, Warren played a higher percentage of the snaps (58.7%) than Najee Harris (40.3%) on Thursday, and the fact it came in blizzard-like conditions makes that change even more notable. If there was a game to pound the physical Harris, that's probably it. Warren saw five targets as the Steelers trailed, too.
Obviously, there are still warts with the former Oklahoma State standout's role. Warren received only one red-zone touch, but Harris (two) and Cordarrelle Patterson (one) didn't exactly pull away there. I wouldn't be stunned if Warren received equal-to-superior work in the red area in Week 13's delightful matchup.
According to numberFire's metrics, the Cincinnati Bengals are a bottom-eight team against both the rush and the pass, and opposing lead running backs have topped 15 fantasy points in three of the last four games against them. This matchup's 46.5-point total doesn't hurt, either.
It feels hard to give up running back or flex spots to a part-time rusher considering how many RB explosions we've seen in 2024, but a salary for the efficient Warren should be in the $6,000-range.
Alec Pierce, Colts
FanDuel Salary: $5,600
We've got a lot of "wait and see" injuries at wide receiver this week. The one absence we're pretty sure about lies with the Indianapolis Colts.
Josh Downs (shoulder) got the "week-to-week" label immediately following Sunday's loss, and the 5-7 Colts may not choose to push their breakout sophomore in a season slipping away. Other Indy pass-catchers will likely have to step up in his place against the New England Patriots.
At $5,600, I'll put my money behind Alec Pierce. The downfield threat is far from a one-to-one replacement for Downs in the slot, but Adonai Mitchell ($5,000) isn't either. Mitchell played just 24.5% of the snaps to Pierce's 71.4% in Week 12, though.
Plus, Pierce had three spike weeks north of 14 FDP in his first five games with Anthony Richardson before his demotion. AR's 12.5 average depth of target (aDOT) is a natural fit for his route tree, which has seen 40 of his 48 targets come at least 10 yards downfield.
The Pats have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards and third-most yards per route run to wideouts, and they just allowed Jaylen Waddle to wreak havoc downfield. Pierce could absolutely turn his added opportunity into a similar day.
Consider Jauan Jennings ($6,100) at wideout if we get the "all clear" on Brock Purdy, too.
Hunter Henry, Patriots
FanDuel Salary: $5,100
If you're a believer in FanDuel Research's projections, you might have turned to Hunter Henry in Week 12 against the Miami Dolphins.
It ended up being a sharp move that didn't quite pan out. Henry led the New England Patriots with eight targets, catching five of them for 44 yards. Backup tight end Austin Hooper scored a touchdown long after the game was decided.
Still, for a near-$5,000 salary, Henry's floor is spectacular with quite the role carved out for this pass-catching group devoid of wideouts. He's drawn at least five targets in five of Drake Maye's seven starts.
Henry also hasn't reached the end zone since Week 6 despite seeing 1.4 red zone targets per game since his last tuddie. That's bound to turn around, and the Colts are a great spot. Indianapolis is a top-eight team in expected fantasy points, targets, yards, and touchdowns let up to TEs.
Maye has been much better at home (0.04 EPA/db) than on the road (-0.19), as well. Pierce and Henry might make for a sneaky mini-stack even if this game's 42.5-point total is just okay.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.