4 NFL DFS Matchups to Target in Week 12
When playing NFL DFS on FanDuel, we have to factor in matchups when rostering players. A running back who was a superb play one week might be a poor play the next week.
This article will help identify the best matchups to target on a given main slate. Which matchups stand out this week?
All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published. We'll reference our NFL DFS projections.
NFL DFS Matchups to Target for Week 12
Kenneth Walker III vs. Cardinals Rush Defense
We haven't gotten a ceiling game from Kenneth Walker III ($8,100) since he had a multi-touchdown game in Week 7 (22.3 FanDuel points), but he's in the right spot for that kind of outing versus the Arizona Cardinals.
Arizona is just 28th in schedule-adjusted rush defense, per numberFire, which has contributed to them allowing the eighth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs. Additionally, this game has the makings of a high-scoring affair overall, sporting a solid total (47.5) and ranking as the week's third-fastest matchup in adjusted pace.
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As for Walker, he's seen promising usage as both a runner (14.1 carries per game) and receiver (4.5 targets per game), and when combining his rushes and targets in the red zone, he's inside the NFL's top 10 in RZ opportunity share (41.9%).
Our NFL DFS projections rank Walker as a top-10 option among RBs in both raw fantasy points and point-per-dollar value.
Courtland Sutton vs. Raiders Pass Defense
Courtland Sutton ($7,100) got a nod in this space last week, and despite the Denver Broncos scoring five touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons -- including four passing scores by Bo Nix -- Sutton somehow missed out on the end zone while leading the team in targets (8), receptions (7), and receiving yards (78).
It's not like Sutton didn't see any looks near the goal line, either, as he also led the offense in red zone target share (33.3%) and saw the lone end zone target.
Although he missed out on the ceiling game, Sutton continues to see encouraging usage, owning a 29.5% target share, 46.6% air yards share, and 26.9% red zone target share over the last four games.
Perhaps the touchdowns come his way this time around in another plus matchup for the Broncos' offense. While Denver will be hitting the road, they're 6.5-point favorites and will be playing indoors against the Las Vegas Raiders.
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Las Vegas has been on the lower end fantasy production allowed to opposing wideouts, but that could have more to do with their schedule, which has included a heavy mix of run-heavy or subpar offenses. The Raiders are 30th in adjusted pass defense and rank 32nd in PFF's coverage grade against receivers.
Due to this matchup's low total, this isn't kind of spot to go all in on a game stack, but Sutton has a good chance to come through based on volume, matchup, and Nix's improved play.
Josh Jacobs vs. 49ers Rush Defense
While the San Francisco 49ers have a strong defense overall, it's developed into a run-funnel unit, ranking 5th in adjusted pass defense but 20th in adjusted rush defense.
That's good news for Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs, who's scored 20+ FanDuel points two of the last three games. Across 10 games, Jacobs has averaged 102.4 scrimmage yards, 17.6 rushes, and 2.9 targets per game with a 33.0% RZ opportunity share.
Although this matchup projects to one of the week's slowest in pace, these are two capable offenses, so this matchup is still showing a 47.5 total. Green Bay is 11th in adjusted offense while San Francisco is 8th.
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Jacobs also shows well in our projections, ranking as the best overall running back value at his mid-range salary. Note that he's been limited in practice to begin the week, so keep tabs on the Packers' injury report.
Travis Kelce vs. Panthers Pass Defense
Travis Kelce ($7,200) is coming off a dud against the Buffalo Bills, but he couldn't ask for a softer landing spot than this Week 12 tilt versus the Carolina Panthers. Not only do the Panthers rank 31st in adjusted pass defense, but they've given up the most FanDuel points per game and second-most per target to tight ends.
With the Kansas City Chiefs sitting pretty as 11.5-point favorites, there's some blowout potential against this lowly opponent, but as we've seen all season, the Chiefs have generally kept things close regardless of matchup.
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Kelce's quiet Week 11 (1.8 FanDuel points) broke a streak of three straight games with 16+ points, and he's scored double-digit points in five of seven games since Rashee Rice's season-ending injury. In that sample, he's earned a 29.1% target share, 31.2% air yards share, and 25.0% red zone target share.
A bounce-back performance for Kelce should be fully expected on Sunday, and he's projected for the most FanDuel points at his position.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.