4 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Friday 12/6/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks

Hawks Over 117.5 Points (-110)

The Atlanta Hawks are on a five-game winning streak and are averaging 120.4 points per game (PPG) during the stretch. Tonight's opponent -- the Los Angeles Lakers -- is yet another defense that could be on the receiving end of a ton of points from the Hawks.

The Lakers' defense has been far from exceptional, touting the fourth-worst defensive rating while allowing a 56.6% effective field goal percentage (second-highest) and 48.7% field goal percentage (the highest). Guarding the painted area has not been an easy task for L.A., surrendering the third-most points in the paint per game and the ninth-highest shot distribution around rim (per Dunks & Threes).

In the 2023-24 season, Anthony Davis (115.1) and LeBron James (114.9) held solid defensive ratings. Davis currently holds a 117.7 defensive rating compared to LeBron at 120.4. Los Angeles' star big man Davis (foot) is probable to play tonight, but James' (foot) status is questionable. It doesn't get much better behind LeBron as Cam Reddish carries a 122.7 defensive rating.

After carrying the ninth-highest three-point distribution a season ago, Atlanta's three-point attack has taken a step back in the 2024-25 campaign by sporting the eighth-lowest shot distribution from three and the fourth-highest distribution around the rim. The Hawks also tout the 2nd-most points in the paint per contest paired with a 54.2% two-point percentage (16th-highest).

Atlanta should have the advantage around the rim, elevating it to the over. numberFire's game projections have the Hawks totaling 121.8 points in this one.

Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs

Kings Over 116.5 Points (-118)

Victor Wembanyama was absent for the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday from a sore back. The defense was exposed, allowing 139 points and 68 points in the paint in the 15-point loss against the Chicago Bulls. Of course, Wemby is an elite defender with his 112.3 defensive rating this season. When he's off the court for the Spurs, opponents' effective field goal percentage (eFG%) rises from 52.4% to 56.3% and their field goal percentage (FG%) at the rim jumps from 60.0% to 66.4%.

Wembanyama's status for Friday night doesn't look the best; I doubt he returns from a back injury on the second half of a back-to-back. San Antonio has given up 128.5 PPG in the last two games when Wemby was absent. The Spurs' 13th-best defensive rating takes a clear dip without their superstar, especially when it comes to defending the rim.

The Sacramento Kings could prove to be a matchup nightmare, for they tend to lean on the two. The Kings attempt the 7th-fewest three-point shots per game compared to logging the 18th-most points in the paint per contest along with a 57.2% two-point percentage (3rd-highest). Considering opponents' see their two-point percentage jump from 51.3% to 57.5% when Wembanyama is off the court for San Antonio, this already efficient offense from two will likely look to expose the weakness.

For example, Domantas Sabonis takes 69.1% of his shots within 10 feet of the basket and shoots 69.9% on those attempts. Sacramento has the tools to live in the painted area, giving value to Sabonis' 19.5-point prop.

However, backing the Kings to cover is still iffy thanks to their 2-8 against the record (ATS) record over the last 10. Plus, they are favored by 5.5 while numberFire's projections have them by about 5 points. This one could be too close to call, so give me over Sacramento's point prop. The Kings have logged 118.3 PPG over the past three contests.

Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers

Trail Blazers -2.5 (-108) Under 226.5 Points (-108)

Taking a side for the Utah Jazz-Portland Trail Blazers initially seems like a breeze. The Jazz are 4-17, have lost five straight, and are 1-4 ATS over the previous five. Meanwhile, the Blazers have at least shown some promise, including a 6-4 ATS record over the past 10.

However, it's hard to ignore that Portland has allowed 132.0 PPG over its last two games. What was the common denominator in those games? Backup centers Donovan Clingan (knee) and Robert Williams (concussion) were absent, and both absences will carry over to Friday night. This has more to do with the rookie Clingan as he carries a 112.0 defensive rating; when he's off the floor, opponents' at the rim percentage jumps from 61.1% to 68.3%. Meanwhile, Williams touts an uninspiring 118.4 defensive rating.

Opponents have logged 52.0 points in the paint per contest over Portland's last two, compared to its season-long mark of 46.1 points in the paint allowed per contest (ninth-fewest). However, Utah's offense is much less of a threat around the rim.

The Trail Blazers' last two opponents (the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers) both tout their highest shot distributions around the rim. The Jazz have the 5th-lowest shot distribution around the rim compared to the 12th-highest distribution from three-point land. Utah even logs the 9th-fewest points in the paint per contest paired with a 53.6% two-point percentage (12th-lowest).

Portland's defense has also done a great job of creating havoc, forcing 16.5 turnovers per game (fifth-most). The Jazz are the sloppiest team in the NBA, logging 17.4 turnovers per contest. It only gets worse as Utah forces the fewest turnovers per contest (11.3). In a tight game with a 2.5-point spread, this turnover difference will likely decide the cover.

In a matchup between two teams in the bottom 10 of offensive and defensive ratings, the Blazers sport the best unit in this matchup with the ninth-worst defensive rating. DRatings' projections have Portland by about three points, which would pair well with the under (DRatings forecasting a 225.1 total).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.