4 Best NFL Touchdown Bets for Week 17

Taking anytime touchdown props via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook is a fun way to wager on the NFL.

Which touchdown picks make sense for this week? Let's dig in.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Best NFL TD Picks: Week 17

Aaron Jones Any Time Touchdown (-140)

After a mid-season lull, Aaron Jones' role is back on the ascent, allowing him to be a value to score even at -140.

Jones in Week 16 played 82.3% of the snaps. That was his highest mark since Week 8. He tallied 18 carries and 5 targets while handling 40% of the team's red-zone carries or targets for the second straight game.

This is the kind of workload Jones held earlier in the season. It seems like the Minnesota Vikings' faith in him has risen after his fumbling binge a few weeks ago.

The total for this game against the Green Bay Packers is sky high at 48.5. The Packers are a quality defense, but they've struggled more against the rush (12th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted defensive rankings) than against the pass (4th), potentially hinting at another large workload for Jones Sunday.

Bucky Irving Any Time Touchdown (-140)

In Bucky Irving's eight full games since Rachaad White returned from injury, Irving has scored five times (62.5%). That's above the implied odds of 58.3%. A couple factors point to that rate staying high in the near future.

First, this is a great game environment for scoring. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' team total is 28.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook, in part because the Carolina Panthers are 31st in numberFire's defensive rankings. They're 31st against the rush, as well, meaning the Bucs should be able to move the ball on the ground.

Second, Irving could snag a larger share of the pie. White lost a critical fumble at the end of Sunday night's game, and the coaching staff has expressed frustration during the week.

Irving's worth a look at this number without an assumed role change due to how he has performed thus far. The possibility for more work -- paired with a peachy setup -- makes him enticing even at -140.

Dalton Kincaid Any Time Touchdown (+300)

The Buffalo Bills still have big incentive to win even with the 1 seed out of reach. They need a win to fend off the Baltimore Ravens for the 2 seed and the right to host a potential divisional-round matchup. They should push hard Sunday against the New York Jets, allowing us to analyze them straight up.

To me, that says we should target Dalton Kincaid.

We have a four-game sample on the Bills with Kincaid, Amari Cooper, and Keon Coleman fully healthy and active. In that span, Kincaid has a 22.0% target share with 19.1% of the red-zone targets. He towers above Coleman's overall share (14.6%) and Cooper's (7.3%) while tying Coleman for the team lead in red-zone targets.

Despite that, both Coleman (+270) and Cooper (+280) have shorter any time touchdown odds than Kincaid. I don't think that should be the case.

Kincaid has run cold in the touchdown department this year, scoring just twice on 73 targets. We should see some regression soon, and this looks like a good spot to buy in.

Brenton Strange Any Time Touchdown (+460)

Even in a game with a total this low, Brenton Strange's role is good enough where this is a value.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have played six games without Evan Engram this year. In those, Strange ranks second behind Brian Thomas Jr. with a 15.8% target share. That's even with Christian Kirk and Gabriel Davis (who are both on IR) playing in four of those. In two games without them, Strange's target share rises to 20.5%.

The opposing Tennessee Titans haven't faced many tight ends with big roles this year, so their numbers against the position (only four touchdowns allowed all season) may be misleading. Thus, I'm willing to bet on the role over the matchup here and back Strange at forgiving odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.