4 Best NFL Touchdown Bets for Week 13

Taking anytime touchdown props via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook is a fun way to wager on the NFL.

Which touchdown picks make sense for this week? Let's dig in.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Best NFL TD Picks: Week 13

Quentin Johnston Anytime Touchdown (+230)

It was a forgettable outing from Quentin Johnston in Week 12 as the second-year wideout finished with 0 receptions on 5 targets while being credited with 3 drops (per PFF). Following Johnston's dismal showing, quarterback Justin Herbert immediately came out in defense of the young receiver, iterating that the Los Angeles Chargers aren't going to shy away from getting the ball to Johnston moving forward.

Besides leading the Chargers in receiving TDs (6), Johnston owns the second-highest target share (17.9%), air yards share (25.9%), red-zone target share (16.0%), and end-zone target share (26.7%) on the team across the nine games he's been active in, via NextGenStats. A date with the Atlanta Falcons in Week 13 could be exactly what Johnston needs to bounce back.

Ahead of Sunday's matchup, the Falcons are giving up the third-most receiving TDs (15), second-highest catch rate over expected (+5.1%), fourth-most end-zone receptions (8), and eighth-most end-zone targets (19) to WRs. Atlanta's defense is also 23rd in deep yards per target allowed (11.0) and 31st in pressure rate (26.3%), so Herbert should have plenty of time to take shots down the field.

J.K. Dobbins is also going to miss time with a knee injury, which could lead to LA leaning on Herbert and the passing game more. Even though Johnston has had issues with drops, his downfield and red-zone usage make him an enticing player to target for a TD in Week 13.

Nico Collins Anytime Touchdown (+120)

I've already written up Nico Collins and his alternate receiving yards line in my favorite player prop bets in Week 13 piece, but I also like him to find the end zone. The matchup doesn't get much better for Collins as the big-play WR on the Houston Texans faces a Jacksonville Jaguars team that is 32nd in schedule-adjusted pass defense.

In addition to that, the Jaguars are permitting the eighth-most receiving TDs (13) and fourth-highest catch rate over expected (+4.6%) to the WR position. Collins didn't have any issues carving up Jacksonville's defense back in Week 4, finishing with 12 receptions for 151 yards and a score on 15 targets.

What makes Collins such an enticing pick to score a TD on Sunday is the fact he dominates man coverage, which the Jaguars play at the seventh-highest rate (38.1%) in the NFL. Against man coverage this season, Collins leads the Texans in target rate (29.0%), yards per reception (16.8), and yards per route run (3.26).

Throughout the seven games he's played this season, Collins paces Houston's offense in target share (24.8%), air yards share (42.8%), red-zone target share (34.6%), end-zone target share (72.7%), and yards per route run (3.53). Even with C.J. Stroud and the Texans struggling to show consistency through the air, Collins has a decent shot to score his fifth TD of the campaign.

Tee Higgins Anytime Touchdown (+140)

At least on paper, Tee Higgins has a horrendous matchup versus the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13. The Steelers have surrendered the fewest receiving TDs (5), fewest end-zone receptions (1), and fourth-fewest end-zone targets (10) to WRs this year.

However, I'm willing to look past those numbers given Higgins' role when he's been healthy, and the trust that Vegas is placing in Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals this week. In the six games he's started in this season, Higgins leads the Bengals in target share (29.0%), air yards share (38.7%), and end-zone target share (44.4%) while posting the second-highest red-zone target share (27.3%) during that sample.

As Cincy exits their bye week, Higgins is coming off his most productive performance of the season, registering 9 receptions for 148 yards and a TD on 13 targets. Across his last four appearances, Higgins has accumulated four TDs.

Not only do the Bengals carry the sixth-highest implied total (25.0) in Week 13, but Burrow currently has -156 odds to throw 2-plus touchdowns on Sunday as he's tossed multiple TDs in 8 of his 11 starts -- including 3-plus TDs in each of his last 3 contests. With Burrow playing lights out, I'm still interested in backing Higgins at these odds to catch a TD in a below-average matchup at home.

Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown (+105)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers continued to lean into Bucky Irving being their best RB in Week 12, which resulted in the rookie rusher turning a 54.8% snap rate and 51.5% route rate into 151 scrimmage yards and a score on 18 total touches. Tampa Bay's usage of Irving last week was a bit reminiscent of how the Miami Dolphins utilize De'Von Achane as the Bucs peppered Irving with quick passes and allowed him to create after the catch.

After terrorizing the defense of the New York Giants in Week 12, Irving will draw an even better matchup against the Carolina Panthers in Week 13. Carolina's defense is coughing up the second-most rushing yards (1,424), most rushing touchdowns (14), seventh-most yards per attempt (4.7), and worst rushing success rate (46.0%) to RBs.

The Panthers are also 31st in schedule-adjusted run defense while the Buccaneers are solid favorites on the road, which could lead to Tampa Bay running the ball a bit more than usual. Even if the Bucs elect to throw the ball more, Irving is capable of scoring on the ground or via the air as he leads the team in red-zone rushing share (47.8%) and he has a notable 14.0% target share in his last four games.

The only concerns with taking Irving to score is the fact that the Bucs are still giving red-zone touches to Rachaad White and Sean Tucker, and Tampa Bay could find themselves with a large lead if Carolina can't keep the game competitive. That being said, Irving has been the most effective back for the Buccaneers this season, and the Panthers have looked much better in recent weeks with Bryce Young playing solid football.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.