4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 8

Last week, weather played a massive role in the NFL slate, and it led to some good betting value in unders.

This week, winds are down, and we get to cheer for points again. Giddy up.

Of the eight spots where my model is more than a point off market, only one of them is an under. I do like that one, and we'll touch on it within today's piece. But for the most part, we've got the green light to sprinkle on overs.

Let's dig into my favorite bets for Week 8 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, all of which happen to be totals.

Best NFL Week 8 Spread and Total Bets

Giants at Eagles

Total Over 43.5 (-105)

The New York Giants' offense continues to impress in difficult spots. I think they can do it again on Sunday.

Jaxson Dart's first four starts have come against the teams sitting 18th, 25th, 7th, and 5th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted pass defense rankings. His two best showings came against those top-10 units as the Giants scored more than 30 points in both.

For the season, Dart is now averaging 0.05 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back, which is below average but a big step up from Russell Wilson's mark of -0.03. Dart is at 0.33 the past two weeks.

That's not enough for me to take the Giants +7.5 because I still really respect this Philadelphia Eagles team. Taking the over allows me to benefit should the Eagles be the team that lights up the scoreboard this time around.

Either way, I'm pretty far above the market in this one, and the Giants' offense pushes me to agree with the model.

49ers at Texans

Total Over 41.5 (-110)

As of now, my model has this total at 45.2, and there's potential for that to increase if we get good injury news on Brock Purdy. That's even with Nico Collins projected to be out due to a concussion. Thus, I'm willing to go here despite how bad the Houston Texans' offense looked on Monday night.

In that one, the Texans were on the road facing the Seattle Seahawks, who have the third-highest pressure rate in the league once you adjust for schedule. This time, they're at home and facing the San Francisco 49ers, who rank 30th in that stat and just lost another pass-rusher in Bryce Huff.

At some point, the 49ers will get healthy, and this offense will morph back into the juggernaut we know it can be. Because they didn't place Ricky Pearsall on IR, it's possible he's back in the near future. And although Kyle Shanahan said it would be "a reach" for Purdy to start, buddy loves to deceive about injuries.

The 49ers' ground game showed life Sunday with George Kittle back, and that came against an Atlanta Falcons defense that was thriving overall entering that game. Thus, even if it's Mac Jones with no Pearsall again, I do think we'll see some points.

Packers at Steelers

Total Over 44.5 (-115)

The Aaron Rodgers revenge game is a lot more fun when Rodgers is playing well. I think he is, which helps put me on this over.

The Pittsburgh Steelers enter Week 8 as numberFire's ninth-ranked passing offense and eighth overall. The Green Bay Packers -- despite some bumps -- are third and fifth, respectively, so we've got two quality offenses in this game.

This game is in Pittsburgh, and the Packers' defense hasn't been as nasty on the road. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged just 0.01 Passing NEP per drop back in Green Bay versus 0.18 elsewhere. This will also be the Packers' second straight road game, which could take some bite out of their pass rush.

Thanks to those offenses, my model has this total at 48.0. That may be a smidge high, but I like what I've seen from both sides enough to also think the market is too low.

Cowboys at Broncos

Total Under 50.5 (-110)

This total was 49.5 yesterday, so somebody out there is expecting a shootout. I get it, to an extent, but a number this large feels optimistic.

Despite last week's showing, the Denver Broncos' defense is still one we should fear. They're top-five across the board in numberFire's defensive rankings. They've also let up just a 32.3% schedule-adjusted success rate on late downs. The league average is 45.0%, and no other team is below 38.0%. True sicko stuff.

I'm also still willing to be skeptical of their offense. They're averaging just 0.03 Passing NEP per drop back on early downs, and that decreases to 0.00 once you adjust for schedule. That could allow for simply a decent performance on that side despite an elite matchup at home.

I've been hesitant to bet unders in Dallas Cowboys games because it means -- in a way -- we're betting against Dak Prescott, who should be higher in the MVP race. Maybe that means the Broncos' team total under is the better bet (under 27.5 points is -130). I do still like getting to benefit from the Broncos' elite defense, though, which is why I'm opting for the full game under, instead.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.