4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 10

Sometimes in the NFL, the grossest bet is the best bet.

If there's a spread or a total that nobody wants to touch for some reason, you'll see movement the other direction. If that movement is drastic enough, we can sometimes get to a point where the untouchable side becomes a value.

I think we're getting that in NFL Week 10. We just have to decide if we have the intestinal fortitude to bet it.

Let's start there, laying out a market I think moved too much yesterday, and then we can dig into other bets I like in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

Best NFL Week 10 Spread and Total Bets

Browns at Jets

Jets +2.5 (-110)

What. Could. Go. Wrong?

The New York Jets -- who already had a struggling defense -- shipped off their two best defensive players before the trade deadline in Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. If they were bad with those guys, you can only imagine how rough things will be without them.

I just don't know if the Cleveland Browns can take advantage.

Dillon Gabriel has averaged -0.13 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back thus far. That ranks 33rd out of 35 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs, ahead of only Cameron Ward and Jake Browning. Passing efficiency is the key lever in my spread betting model, leading to the Browns' being its 31st-ranked team despite their defense.

The Jets are just 29th in those power rankings because their passing offense has also struggled, and the defense is now brutal, as well. Those struggles on offense just haven't been as pronounced as the Browns', and they may get Garrett Wilson back in the mix this week, as well.

With this game in East Rutherford, I've got the Jets favored even after the Gardner and Williams trades. It's possible the bad vibes post-deadline make this bet look really stupid. But I do think the market took this one too far, leading to value in Aaron Glenn's squad.

Patriots at Buccaneers

Total Under 48.5 (-118)

I've given the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense a boost with right tackle Luke Goedeke nearing a return, and they could get a bigger one if we get good injury news on Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving.

Even if they do get those boosts, I'm still likely to show value in this under.

A lot of that is a credit to Todd Bowles. They enter Week 10 as the fifth-ranked defense by numberFire's metrics. They've done that with their typical stout play against the run and by generating an above-average amount of pressure.

Pressure has also been the one weakness for the New England Patriots' passing offense. After adjusting for schedule, the Patriots have allowed the third-highest pressure rate in the league; it's just been masked by Drake Maye's heroics.

This will be just the second time all season the Patriots have faced a top-10 defense in numberFire's rankings, and they'll have to do so on the road as the Bucs come off a bye. I have enough faith in them where I have the Bucs as just slight favorites, but the matchup does push me toward the under.

Cardinals at Seahawks

Total Over 45.5 (-115)

I already had interest in this over on Tuesday morning. The news on Tuesday only amplified that interest.

First, the Seattle Seahawks added Rashid Shaheed. He's a perfect compliment to Jaxon Smith-Njigba as someone who can lift the lid of the defense while earning targets himself. Even if his full value isn't realized immediately, it is a short-term boost, as well.

Second, the Arizona Cardinals announced that Jacoby Brissett will continue as starter for the time being. The Cardinals have had two of their three best showings in early-down passing efficiency (relative to matchup) in Brissett's starts, and their late-down success rate has gone up, as well. He's commanding the offense well, even once you adjust for some soft matchups in there.

The Seahawks are very much not that, so we should keep expectations for Arizona in check. But once we consider how much work the Seahawks' offense should be able to do, I think the over is the right play.

Eagles at Packers

Total Over 44.5 (-110)

Whenever you have two offenses this efficient going head-to-head, I'm going to have a hard time getting a total this low. That's true here, as well, as the Philadelphia Eagles face the Green Bay Packers.

Both offenses have certainly been frustrating at times. However, they both rank inside the top seven in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive efficiency, showing the overall body of work has been solid.

Neither defense has quite lived up to expectations, either. Both are outside the top 10 by numberFire's rankings. Even though I'd expect them to trend up, these aren't necessarily defenses where we must drastically downgrade expectations.

Finally, these two offenses are most likely to generate unders when they have a big lead and can grind clock late. In such a tight matchup, that kind of script is unlikely. Thus, I'm pretty far off market here with this being my biggest value of the week. I think the stars align well enough to potentially give us a juicy one on Monday Night Football.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.