4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Falcons at Commanders on Sunday Night Football

Perusing the NFL schedule at the beginning of the year, it was a bit odd that the Atlanta Falcons and Washington Commanders had such a marquee spot in Week 17 as the playoff picture took shape.

Neither team had a double-digit win total, and the Commanders were forecasted nowhere near the playoffs. This was about Kirk Cousins' return to D.C. Not anymore.

Washington could be locked into the NFC's 7 seed by the time this game kicks off, and Atlanta still controls its destiny in the NFC South, which would require victory in this one.

Will the Falcons' playoff hopes stay alive, or is the Miracle Squad from Maryland primed for another epic home win?

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Sunday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Falcons at Commanders Betting Picks

Falcons +3.5 (-115)
Falcons Moneyline (+154)

While giving full appreciation to Washington's efforts this season, there's no way that the Commies aren't one of the NFL's most overvalued clubs.

Washington needed full-blown miracles to beat the New York Giants, Chicago Bears, and Philadelphia Eagles in three separate home games, and a last-second win over Spencer Rattler two weeks ago hasn't aged gracefully.

In terms of Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, the Commanders have slid to 11th on offense and 22nd on defense in the last five weeks.

Meanwhile, it's a new dawn for the Falcons. Kirk Cousins' five-week stretch of a single touchdown to nine picks has led to the insertion of Michael Penix Jr., who -- outside of a hilarious pick at the hands of Kyle Pitts -- has been outstanding.

Penix's 0.22 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) would be second in the NFL if extrapolated to the whole season with context that most of the sample came against the G-Men last week.

Ranking second in NEP per play on defense in the last five weeks (-0.06), solid quarterback play could make the Falcons one of the best teams in the NFL. Motivation is also squarely on their side.

I'm willing to take a hook to find out if the hype is real when Washington has skirted by much worse teams and quarterbacks in recent weeks.

Over 46.5 Points (-115)
Falcons Over 22.5 Points (-102)

While I love the Falcons as a side, this game should also have a significantly higher total.

If anything, Washington might be the concern for the total given Atlanta's recent defensive prowess, but Jayden Daniels and the Commanders have been outstanding at home. They've posted 30.5 points per game at home this season, topping 30 on four different occasions.

The secondaries on both sides here are banged up. The Falcons will be missing Kevin King (concussion) and Antonio Hamilton (quad), and Washington will be without star corner Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) and safety Tyler Owens (ankle).

These two squads are top 11 in plays per game, indicating a brisk pace. Atlanta's low pass rate over expectation (-8.1%) might have been a lack of trust in Cousins when their 41.5% pass rate was fine in last week's blowout during Penix's first start.

If you're looking for the best angle to encompass all of these notes, Atlanta's alternate team total that includes a key NFL scoring outcome (23.0) is my favorite individual angle in this game. A bet against Daniels in Landover has lost more often than not this year.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.