4 Best NBA Bets and Player Props for Celtics at Nuggets

Even within a single NBA game, betting markets are abundant.

You can bet traditional markets like the spread or the total, but we've also got tons of player-prop markets to sift through.

Which bets stand out today as the Boston Celtics face the Denver Nuggets?

Let's dig into the best bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA betting odds, utilizing FanDuel Research's NBA projections to try to find value.

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Celtics at Nuggets Betting Picks

Celtics -5.5 (-106)

As a basketball fan, I'm hoping this game goes down to the wire. We are afforded only two installations of the Celtics vs. Nikola Jokic each year and the NBA could use a nationally televised barnburner.

With that said, I can get behind backing Boston to cover a 5.5-point spread -- though I'm only into that if Derrick White (illness) is able to play. White was a late addition to the injury report as questionable.

The Celtics have a +10.2 net rating on the road while the Nuggets have a +3.8 net rating at home.

Denver's defense allows the sixth-most three-point attempts (3PA) and the eighth-most three-point makes (3PM) per game. There might be no escaping the Celtics, a team that shoots a league-leading 50.2 threes each night.

In addition to their two All-Stars, we know Boston will have Kristaps Porzingis, Sam Hauser, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, and Payton Pritchard available tonight. All those guys can get it done from downtown, but the same cannot be said for Denver. The Nuggets are at a league-low in three-point volume (31.1 3PA) and should have a tough time keeping up if Boston's shooters are at all on one.

To add, Aaron Gordon (calf) has been ruled out for tonight. Past Jokic, he leads the Nuggets in net rating.

As mentioned, I would not place money on the Celtics until we get word on Derrick White's status. Boston's ball movement sans White has a tendency to be unwatchable and there's no denying the mark he makes on defense.

The Celtics were favored by 6.0 points on FanDuel before White was added to the injury report. It should go back to that number if White is ruled in, and I'm perfectly fine betting it at that. Otherwise, I'll stick to betting player props in this one.

Payton Pritchard To Score 15+ Points (+130)

Payton Pritchard's points prop moved from 11.5 to 13.5 following the Derrick White news. It's probably best to wait for confirmation on White's status before betting this one, as Pritchard's odds to score 15 points will only lengthen if White does end up getting ruled in.

With that out of the way, let's talk about why I like Pritchard to go for 15 tonight.

He's averaging 15.2 points per game and has scored at least 15 points in 61.1% of games this season, up from the 43.5% implied probability on these +130 odds.

As mentioned, the Nuggets cough up the sixth-most threes per game. Pritchard is shooting a behemoth 8.4 3PA off the bench and is drilling them at a 42.4% clip. Denver is also playing at the fifth-fastest pace in the NBA, providing context for this game's high 236.5 over/under. Pritchard has scored 15 points in 63.6% of his games against the 15 fastest teams in the league.

In one game without White, Pritchard scored 24 points against a tough Cleveland Cavaliers defense.

Nikola Jokic To Record 12+ Rebounds (-125)

Boston has a lot of strong suits, but rebounding is not one of them. They rank a middle-of-the-road 14th in rebound rate and let up the 11th-most defensive rebounds per game.

Jokic is collecting 13.0 rebounds each game. He's grabbed at least 12 boards in 61.3% of games this season. When facing teams outside the top 10 in rebounding, he's netting 13.5 rebounds and has notched at least 12 boards at a 70.0% rate.

Boston also lets up the fifth-most rebounds to opposing centers. Jokic has played 12 games against teams that rank in the top 10 of most rebounds allowed to his position. In this split, he's averaging a whopping 14.7 rebounds. He hauled in at least 14 rebounds in 8 out of 12 games (66.7%) in this split.

With that in mind, I'll also be backing Jokic To Record 14+ Rebounds at +190 odds, which imply only a 34.5% probability.

Kristaps Porzingis 3+ Made Threes (+170)

Last but not least, let's look for Kristaps Porzingis to drain a trio of triples.

Porzingis has been shooting a lot of threes; they just aren't going in. He's underperforming his long-term three-point average by 4.7%. Based on his long-term shooting averages -- and his three-point volume this season -- he should be averaging 2.3 made threes per game.

Regression could be forthcoming against Denver, who rank 22nd in three-pointers allowed to centers. Porzingis has played teams that rank 20th (Chicago Bulls), 27th (Cleveland Cavaliers), and 28th (Memphis Grizzlies) in this split. He made two three-pointers in all three games against the Bulls. He then went 3-for-7 and 3-for-10 from downtown against the Cavs and Grizzlies, respectively.

In a game where Porzingis is primed to shoot anywhere between six-to-eight threes, I'll take +170 odds that he can nail a trio of them.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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