3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 12/4/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Nashville Predators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Predators Moneyline +138

It’s been a terrific start to the season for the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Original Six franchise has rattled off wins in 15 of their first 24 games, taking the lead in the Atlantic Division. However, they’ve started to come undone over their recent sample, implying the Leafs are regression candidates over their coming games. Expect a few losses to follow, beginning with Wednesday’s showdown versus the Nashville Predators.

Toronto is falling apart lately. The Maple Leafs have been outplayed in three straight games, including getting manhandled by the visiting Chicago Blackhawks last time out. In that contest, the Leafs posted a disastrous 28.5% expected goals-for rating despite a 4-1 win, dropping their three-game average to 38.7%. The inverse relationship between production and output further supports their anticipated regression. Toronto has recorded 10 goals over the past three games in spite of mustering a laughable 16 high-danger chances.

Meanwhile, we’re forecasting an about-face for the Predators over their coming games. Nashville has dropped four straight but is starting to get its metrics back in order. The Predators have out-chanced their opponents in scoring chances in two of three while also posting positive Corsi ratings in the same number of games.

Toronto is on the precipice of a meltdown while the Preds should start working their way out of their most recent funk. As a result, we see value in backing the underdog visitors in this inter-conference affair.

Dallas Stars vs. Los Angeles Kings

Kings Moneyline +104

Assuredly, Wednesday night’s encounter between the Los Angeles Kings and Dallas Stars could be a preview of this year’s Western Conference Final. Both teams are performing at optimal levels and have propelled themselves to the front of their respective division races. While the Stars have been installed as short road favorites, our analysis supports that the home underdogs Kings are undervalued.

Dallas has won three straight despite getting outplayed in each contest. That imbalance shows that the Stars are regression candidates for their coming games. Across the three-game sample, the Stars have given up 25 high-danger chances while creating just 19. Further, they’ve been out-shot and out-possessed in all three despite playing two of those games at home. Dallas can’t continue to get outplayed and win games.

LA remains one of the most dominant analytics teams in the league. So far this season, the Kings have accumulated the top high-danger chance rating, fifth-best Corsi percentage, and fourth-highest scoring chance percentage -- culminating with the NHL’s top expected goals-for rating (eGF). We’ve seen the best the Kings have to offer over their more recent schedule. Los Angeles has outplayed five of its past seven opponents, generating a pristine 62.3% expected goals-for rating in that span.

The Kings are the pre-eminent analytics power this season, and they’ve been operating even more efficiently over the past few weeks. This is an ideal opportunity to back an underdog home side that’s more than capable of pulling off the upset.

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Anaheim Ducks

60-Minute Tie +330

The Vegas Golden Knights are in a trying spot on Wednesday night. The Knights dispatched the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday night, setting up another intra-divisional battle against the Anaheim Ducks tonight. Scheduling is one factor in the Knights’ dilemma, but they also have underwhelming analytics and a mishandled goaltending situation, putting them at a deficit at the Honda Center.

Vegas was thoroughly outplayed in last night’s win. The Golden Knights were out-shot, out-possessed, and out-chanced en route to a 32.8% expected goals-for rating. Sadly, that’s become the norm for the once-removed Stanley Cup Champs. Vegas has the seventh-worst eGF rating in the NHL and has been outplayed in four of its past six. Compounding those issues, the Knights elected to start Adin Hill on Tuesday, meaning backup Ilya Samsonov and his 3.40 goals against average and .892 save percentage will be standing between the pipes versus the Ducks.

After suffering as one of the worst franchises in the NHL for many years, the Ducks are finally on an upward trajectory. Anaheim is climbing out of the basement with its recent efforts. They’ve attempted 10 or more high-danger chances in three of five, resulting in above-average expected goals-for ratings in two of their past three. Predictably, improved production correlates with an uptick in scoring, with the Ducks eclipsing four goals in two of three.

While the Ducks have improved, there’s still a gap between them and the Golden Knights. Thankfully, Vegas has bridged some of that distance by mismanaging its goaltending situation and failing to put together a competent on-ice product. Our analysis shows an edge in backing this one to get sorted out in overtime or a shootout.

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