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3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 12/3/24

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3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 12/3/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page.

Colorado Avalanche vs. Buffalo Sabres

Sabres Moneyline (+122)

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It has been a strange start to the season for the Colorado Avalanche. The once mighty Avs have alternated between hot and cold streaks through the first two months. But as it stands, the Avalanche’s momentum appears to be taking them in a losing direction. That puts them at a disadvantage as they travel for an inter-conference showdown against the progression-bound Buffalo Sabres.

It’s been a tough stretch for the Sabres. Despite outplaying its opponents in all three contests, Buffalo has dropped three straight decisions. The sting of those losses hurts a little more when we factor in that two only came by one goal, and the Sabres were shut out in two of those contests. Still, Buffalo’s scoring woes have gotten as bad as they can be, and it’s time for the pendulum to start swinging in the opposite direction.

Pointing the lens back further, the Sabres have been held scoreless at five-on-five in four of their past seven. Over that, they’ve accumulated just seven goals at five-on-five for an abysmal 4.4% shooting percentage. This decline has come despite sustained production, ensuring that the Sabres remain progression candidates as their output increases to match their scoring opportunities.

Thankfully, the Avs can accommodate some of that progression for Sabres fans. Scott Wedgewood is expected to make his Colorado debut on Tuesday night, bringing his 3.69 goals against average and .878 save percentage. More concerningly, he only has five starts on the season but has already posted -2.9 goals saved above average. A projected increase in scoring gives the Sabres the edge in this one.

Vancouver Canucks vs. Minnesota Wild

Canucks Moneyline (+118)

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It’s been a hell of a run for the Minnesota Wild, but their metrics are overheating. As a result, inevitable correction lies on the horizon. We’re expecting the Vancouver Canucks to give the Wild more than they can handle when they invade the Xcel Energy Center on Tuesday night.

Minnesota has been virtually unstoppable lately. The Wild have won three straight and five of their past seven, incurring just one regulation loss over that stretch. While their metrics are generally in good order, a few concerning trends are emerging. First, the Central Division contenders have out-possessed their opponents just twice over the seven-game sample. Second, they’ve been out-chanced in scoring opportunities in four of the past five. Finally, their PDO has risen to an unsustainable 1.035 over the past nine. All signs point to immediate regression in Minnesota.

The Canucks have been an all-or-nothing team this year, and lately, they’ve been operating at full capacity. Vancouver is 4-0-1 over its last five, recording at least four goals in all but one. Moreover, we’ve seen them embrace a sturdier defensive structure, with all but one opponent being held to eight or fewer high-danger and 17 or fewer scoring chances. Those systems should hold up fine against a Wild team that doesn’t press the pace offensively.

Minnesota’s metrics support that a natural decline is approaching, and we’re betting that correction starts against the Canucks. At the current price, we see a decided edge in backing the visitors in this Western Conference clash.

Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Calgary Flames

Flames Moneyline (-130)

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The Columbus Blue Jackets and Calgary Flames were never supposed to be here. With young and developing rosters, both teams were expected to struggle in 2024-25. Yet here we are, past the quarter-mark of the season, and the Flames and Jackets are in the thick of their respective playoff races. Both are playing well, but one team has vastly superior metrics and a clear advantage.

Arguably, Columbus has looked like the best team in the league over the past couple of weeks. The Jackets are 5-0-1 over their past six, totaling 32 goals scored across that sample. However, their success is contraindicated in their metrics. Columbus has been outplayed in all but two of those contests. Further, their offensive production doesn’t support sustained output. Nineteen of the Blue Jackets’ 32 goals have come at five-on-five while falling below 22 scoring and eight high-danger chances in all but one of their last six.

We don’t expect the Blue Jackets to maintain that scoring surge against a stout Flames team. As is typically the case, Calgary deploys one of the best defensive systems in the league. They allow just 22.6 scoring and 8.1 high-danger chances per game, benchmarks that have improved over their more recent sample. Across their previous five, the Flames have held opponents to 7.8 quality and 21.8 scoring opportunities. That has helped Calgary outplay five of its last seven opponents.

Our analysis supports that the Blue Jackets’ point streak will end in Calgary. The Flames are the superior analytics team, and their moneyline price doesn’t accurately reflect their chances of walking away victorious. This game is an advantageous spot to back a Flames side at a diminished price.


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