3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Thursday 12/5/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Colorado Avalanche vs. Carolina Hurricanes

Avalanche Moneyline (+128)

As the team battles a three-game losing streak, the Carolina Hurricanes’ moneyline price has taken a significant hit against the Colorado Avalanche. Typically, the Canes hover well above this price point. However, an ineffective Hurricanes stretch and Colorado’s resurgent play leave an edge in backing the visitors on Thursday night.

A rejuvenated stretch for the Avs has undone a tepid start to the season. Colorado has finally started to get their metrics in order, which should precipitate better outcomes. The Central Division contenders have outplayed their opponents in three of their past four, generating a 57.1% expected goals-for rating. Their offense has been a driving factor in that success, with the Avs averaging 30.5 scoring and 10.3 high-danger chances over that stretch.

Colorado’s improved production couldn’t come at a better time. The Canes have struggled over their recent sample, abandoning their typically stout defensive play. Three of their past five opponents have recorded ten high-danger chances, including their last two. More concerningly, the Hurricanes have been unable to offset those defensive shortcomings with improved offensive play. They’ve mustered a minuscule seven high-danger chances over their past two games, averaging just 6.6 across the five-game sample.

It’s not reflected in the betting price, but the Avalanche enter tonight’s showdown against the Canes on much better footing. Colorado has recaptured its offensive glory, with improved production starting to yield increased output. Conversely, the Hurricanes continue to falter. As a result, we see an advantage in taking the underdog Avs in this one.

Detroit Red Wings vs. Ottawa Senators

Senators Moneyline (-184)

The Carolina Hurricanes aren’t the only team that has hit an early-season lull. A scorching start to the season is a thing of the past for the Ottawa Senators. They’ve seen diminishing metrics across their recent sample, albeit with green sprouts in some of their recent game scores. Settling back into the comforts of home should help the Sens extract maximum value against the visiting Detroit Red Wings.

Despite only recording two wins over their past six games, the Sens’ offense has remained constant. Ottawa has totaled 18 goals over the six-game sample, with 13 of those coming over their past four. Moreover, their scoring appears to be coming from a sustainable place. Nine of those 13 tallies have come at five-on-five, and the Senators have seen an uptick in production over their immediate sample. They’ve totaled 58 scoring and 18 high-danger chances over their last two benchmarks that should ratchet higher on home ice.

Detroit doesn’t possess the defensive structure to limit the Sens’ attack. They’ve given up 31 high-danger opportunities over their previous three, with two of those opponents hitting double-digits. Predictably, that correlates with more goals against. Red Wings’ netminders have given up 13 goals over that stretch, resulting in an AHL-worthy .865 save percentage.

At +102, the over is appealing. Still, our most pronounced edge is backing the Sens straight up on the moneyline. It’s just a matter of time before they return to their winning ways, and the Wings offer little resistance.

Nashville Predators vs. Montreal Canadiens

Canadiens Moneyline (+118)

There’s no time for the Nashville Predators to sit back and lick their wounds. Fresh off a convincing 3-2 defeat at the hands of the Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday night, the Preds are back on the ice Thursday versus the Montreal Canadiens. Deteriorating metrics and a mismanaged goaltending situation put Nashville at a disadvantage that is not reflected in the betting price.

Nashville’s offense just isn’t coming together. The Preds are barely scraping by, averaging 6.2 quality chances over their previous five contests. But they’re also being let down in their own end. The Predators have been out-chanced in all but one of those outings, giving up an average of 10.2 high-danger opportunities per game. They can’t even rely on Juuse Saros to stabilize their backend. Saros was deployed in last night’s loss to the Maple Leafs, meaning Justus Annunen has the inside track for tonight’s start. The backup netminder has looked unimpressive in ten games, stopping only 87.2% of shots this season.

That’s a very exploitable advantage for the Habs. Montreal scores 9.8% of shots at five-on-five and 11.7% across all strengths, ranking seventh and eighth, respectively. That efficient offense could reach new heights now that the Canadiens have amplified production. Over their previous four home games, the Habs are averaging 10.0 high-danger and 22.3 scoring opportunities at five-on-five. Still, there’s an inverse relationship forming with their output. Although they’ve seen an increase in production, Montreal is scoring on 7.3% of shots at five-on-five and 11.0% overall.

Expect a boost in the Habs’ output, starting with tonight’s battle against the Preds. Nashville has looked lost on offense, and Annunen doesn’t provide stability between the pipes to tilt the ice in the Predators’ favor. This sets up an advantageous spot to back the underdog home side.

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